Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - page 52
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I would say LOVE, in all the wrong places...but I am happily married:)
What exactly are you looking for Pava?
I would say LOVE, in all the wrong places...but I am happily married:)
This is all the LOVE I can give , it have my future entires and a lot of work to prepare those lines. However I wont trade them since I post this on public. I hope you find it useful.
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I remember from far back a little piece of software "kasanjian project" that attempted to project cycles in to the future mechanically...I enjoyed it back then...
This is all the LOVE I can give , it have my future entires and a lot of work to put these lines. However I wont trade them since I post this on public. I hope you find it useful.
I remember from far back a little piece of software "kasanjian project" that attempted to project cycles in to the future mechanically...I enjoyed it back then...
I don't know the "kasanjian project" but the thing I keep repeat in my posts is to always look for the cycle length, and you don't need any indicator for that, just a trained eye will do.
BTW the yellow line on the chart is supposed to be a possible turning point and thats few days a head, and if you remember my post on SP500 the entry is mid of next year and its few months a head. I even posted some charts with 5 min entry days a head of time. Not to brag but to show that it can be done . It may sound easy but it takes a lot of work to prepare a single chart for trading cycles, and no indicator is required but if you are looking for a short cut then the tools on this thread should give "almost" the right entry, you just need time to tweak and understand how and why they are used.
Look at the chart I posted earlier and how price reacts when it reach the dotted lines
Greetings fellow members,
For those asking about DCE, here is an example of how it is applied. Personally I use DCE to measure the applicability of cycles identified, when a deviation betwen DCE and the cycle show, this tell signals that the identified cycle is no longer applicable. Another use for it is to determine the new cycle length.
Below is the EURUSD M15 chart, using the G browser i was able to determine that the two top cycles had periods of 80 and 40. Since 40 was too small of a cycle for my purpose, I used the 80 period to make more applicable for day trading. Now that I know the cycle I am targeting I input 40 and 20 in DCE (using half the period of the identified cycle). As you can see, for the most part DCE and the G browser agreed on the cycle.
When DCE starts to deviate from G Browser, that is when i know it is time to look for a new cycle (and usually G browser will tell me that).
It is important to understand that I don't use DCE for entry signals, only for cycle confirmation and thus trend
I hope this helps.
Cheers,
Pipi read this post many times
thank you Mr.pip
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Pava
I think it deserves the answer but maybe not the answer you are expecting.
Probably some of you are wondering why am I not talking about systems and similar stuff. The answer is a bit "around the bush" : once a friend of mine asked me to manage his account. My answer was something like this : "I am having enough stress with managing my own account and the responsibility for someone else's money would be a responsibility that I am not prepared to have". Telling how to trade or how to use some tool (the "to the letter how to") would be taking responsibility for someone else's money and I am not a banker or broker or a "get rich systems" seller to do that, and what I am not in any way is a teacher (I have never had any talent to teach people how to do some things)
In my opinion, indicators are a perfect way to interact with men. All one has to do is to attach it to a chart, inspect it visually for gains and loses (without lying to one self and without letting the hope creep in) and in a matter of seconds one can see if something will be profitable or not. That is the best advice I can give. Once when the "objective eye" is opened, a lot of indicators will show their face in a new light, but that is one more reason why one must know what an indicator is doing (calculating, analyzing, whatever word we use) and is it a bs repainter or it has a sound model in the background
visual example of: "(i know a couple that some would call a "magic" ones with proper usage)" ?
That is interesting Mladen ,
I always thought you are a mechanical trader working with expert advisors( exploring and enjoying some unique advanced stats and machine learning formulas).So do you think experts are useless?
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I am working on stuff like that (it would be a lie to tell that I am not) but, in my opinion, so far there is no mechanical substitute for the amount of information our heads are able to process correctly, and, most of all, error handling (as in deciding that something was a wrong decision) is by far the best in our heads compared to any mechanical system
So, I am on both tracks, but for now results of my manual trading is by far better than any mechanical system I have seen till now (and I have tested and made quite a few so far) and that is why my real account is handled strictly by me, myself and I (at least that way there is only one to blame for eventual loses is me, myself and I again
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PS: I am a day trader and that is probably the main reason for opinion like this. I can easily imagine that scalping is much better with mechanical systems but then I never liked scalping (and with restrictions and some "tricks" used by majority of brokers designed to prevent scalping, scalping mechanical systems can lead you to quick disaster (just remeber what happened to one of the banks recently))
That is interesting Mladen , I always thought you are a mechanical trader working with expert advisors( exploring and enjoying some unique advanced stats and machine learning formulas).So do you think experts are useless?
I have seen very few and succesful mechanical traders in elite trader.They were in two categories: a) top-bottom pickers( they were amazingly accurate and they had masters and phds in advanced math and physics and did not apply any TA stuff).b)Trend followers : some of these guys were making 200-300 percent gain per month.Key to the mint was the their formulation of the market state condition.Anyway our subject was Fast Fourier Transform Cycle Extraction
This one was the one I was referring to when talking about losses that mechanical system can cause : Is Knight's $440 million glitch the costliest computer bug ever? - Aug. 9, 2012
Now, knowing how banks and similar ones work (the "we don't have errors, we only have risky investments") let us imagine how much of the errors we do not know of. From time to time I asked myself one thing : why is Stephen Wolfram not making a perfect trading system? and that was my "decision maker" question. If one is not a Deutche Bundesbank or similar with assets enough to move the market (and that way to "correct errors"), it is very hard that your mechanical system is going to be successful. I have an impression that the majority of the systems we are presented as so successful are actually owing their success to the critical amount of money they have at their disposal that serves as an "error correction" factor and not to the way they are trading (just my impression though)