Waddah Attar Win Expert - page 7
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I have started a Demo test with 0.01 on an IBFX mini with cable, using a 20 step with a 1 buck profit to see what that yield per month is per 1K on this "always-in" EA..
This may take a while. If I get a month that does not give at least 3% minimum on the end of month balance, I will increase the lotsize (how is that for backwards MM! ☺)
ES
ES, I am glad to see you forward testing this EA.
Don't you think that $1 profit will give you a miserable return?
In my humble opinion it is not worth risking large drawdowns and some swaps for the benefit of $1. Having said that, smaller profit target gives us higher probability of closing with profit.
Cheers, Kris
I have started a Demo test with 0.01 on an IBFX mini with cable, using a 20 step with a 1 buck profit to see what that yield per month is per 1K on this "always-in" EA..
This may take a while. If I get a month that does not give at least 3% minimum on the end of month balance, I will increase the lotsize (how is that for MM! ☺)
ESI know what you mean...just look at this as a backwards discovery...the lotsize will increase....don't worry.
I am not sophisticated enough yet to tinker with step or global profit exit...perhaps I will understand if I live with this EA for a year and get to know it and the instrument traded.
Caution backtesters...there is no way to shorten my discovery process...I am an idiot.
ES
ES, I am glad to see you forward testing this EA.
Don't you think that $1 profit will give you a miserable return?
In my humble opinion it is not worth risking large drawdowns and some swaps for the benefit of $1. Having said that, smaller profit target gives us higher probability of closing with profit.
Cheers, KrisTokarus,
2 questions:
1) What do you think the lotsize would need to be for 36% a year?
2) Do you think that the velocity of the market should be the profit making factor or simply just the minimum EA values (0.01 and 1 buck)?
ES
P.S. 0.01 will not give you a DD that will cause you to stay awake at night...but if you said the percentage of DD compared to the percentage of profit per trade-set...then that would be valid.
Like you ES, I don't belieback-test results... I forward-test my strategies with diff parameters.
Having said that, in my amateur opinion the lot size should be back-tested to see at what point the strategy wipes-out.
Random events that cause markets to run without retracement happen very infrequently. One-year of forward testing may not be enough to find one.
I can't solve for you what parameters are required for 36% return, but I can tell you that with starting capital of $10,000, step 30, profit $100 and 0.01-lot the strategy doesn't wipe-out for two years. Now I am forward testing it. I hope this helps...
Cheers, Kris
Tokarus,
2 questions:
1) What do you think the lotsize would need to be for 36% a year?
2) Do you think that the velocity of the market should be the profit making factor or simply just the minimum EA values (0.01 and 1 buck)?
ES
P.S. 0.01 will not give you a DD that will cause you to stay awake at night...but if you said the percentage of DD compared to the percentage of profit per trade-set...then that would be valid.This was very valuable TY Tokarus,
I can't solve for you what parameters are required for 36% return, but I can tell you that with starting capital of $10,000, step 30, profit $100 and 0.01-lotthe strategy doesn't wipe-out for two years. Now I am forward testing it. I hope this helps...
On a month-to-month basis I am going to find what lotsize with my settings is required for 36% per year per 1K.
From the data I have from Tokarus, I can say that I do not need to worry about blowing up. Its when I get greedy and try for more yield...that the blow up will happen....
My top down approach is the safest way I know to discover the "Exposure vs DD vs Yield equation".
Being backwards and all...I cannot get in trouble lol..
ES
Folks, Tokarus is more concerned about the step and global profit equation...in which he has very valid points....It is too difficult for me to deal with that...other than this below:
0.01 step 20 profit 1
0.02 step 20 profit 2
0.03 step 20 profit 3
0.04 step 20 profit 4
and so on.........
Now I will stop as soon as I can get to 3% in a month...if I fall short I increase....and so on....I will never decrease though if I get ahead of 3%....This will get me as close as possible to the limitations of this EA using step 20 that I can.....I will discover the minimum performance to achieve the lowest DD.
Does anybody understand what I am talking about? The step is really the only variable... and I have endeavored to use the median step of 20 in my tests (I think 20 is the median based on the 10Y range of cable, but I could be wrong).
ES
P.S. Ok one more point...I trade more often and use more spread....This could be a larger factor than one can imagine...I really do not know yet...
waddah,
Another post to you...
A variable step based on a long term ATR would be nice....
ES
P.S. Please do not laugh at me waddah as I stumble in the dark...I realize all of this is trading 101 to you and I am very primitive in my observations.
Traders..
Never Ask
"How do I make a hundred bucks a day"?
Instead Ask
What do I gotta' do to make a hundred bucks a day?
Traders,
Never Ask
"How much can I yield"?
Instead Ask
"How much do I need to risk to get xx yield" ?
Traders,
Never Ask
How much is the DD?
Instead Ask
What is the percent annual yield to intraday max drawdown ratio?
ES