Which systems have been profitable for at least a full year ?

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MANY systems, to be honest appear to be profitable in a few months of forward testing (auto or manual). however, are these consistent?

Onlypivot appears excellent? Has this been proven success for more than a year ?

HAMA PAD ? Stentz ? Delta9 ? Braintrend ? ACStrend ? XO Method ? HAS appears good? How long has it been profitable.

Many indicators here show signs of profitability, but really how long have they been battle tested for ?

 

I have EA's that are consistently profitable for years at a time, but only with the 'right settings' - therefore only in retrospect. Or take another well known example, the Hans123 EA's - these have been consistently profitable for years now but suffer horrendous drawdowns which are psychologically destroying, so would this qualify???

btw I think most indicators are worthless. I remember reading once of a comprehensive study of all of the then available indicators, and the conclusion that the use of all, except RSI, showed no benefit above random enteries in the long term - and the case for RSI was tenuous as well!

The latest generation of indicators may be 'flashier' but there is no proof that I am aware of that the are any more effective than what has come before!

 

The best system is the simplest one just like moving averages, momentum and the most important thing is support and resistance.

 

Oh, yes...but

nicesurf:
.... the most important thing is support and resistance.

Oh, yes... but if you know how to identify them and, what is even more important: do you know how to identify that lovely moment when one of them is really BROKEN?

IMHO

P.S. Any suggestions about the criteria?

 
project1972:
I will quote something from from Larry Williams. I hope that you understand better the the only edge in the markets are you as a trader and not any indicator.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS----Ah, great focus has been placed on the fact that a market will "bounce" off former highs and lows. The notion is that what was once support (a market low) will become resistance if a market has fallen below and is rallying back to that area. It will...about half the time...and no one can tell you which half!

THE BOTTOM LINE---....I have many friends that use the tools discussed above and do well.

Larry Williams.

Exellent quote, one of my favorite So, some SUCCESSFUL people USE these ordinary tools and do well. Maybe they use them some other, not ordinary way?

 

How to recognize the real break

ProfitHunter:
Oh, yes... but if you know how to identify them and, what is even more important: do you know how to identify that lovely moment when one of them is really BROKEN?

IMHO

P.S. Any suggestions about the criteria?

Hello.

Take a look at the picture

20071026+-+gbp02.gif (image)

At this picture we could see how powerful resistance level was broken.

My comments.

At 3:30 (M5 GMT) the price tried to break this level for the first time, but it didn't manage to do so though. After a little time we could see the first break up to 2.0536. Remember, we mustn't open the trade at once, when level was broken for the first time! As you can see, the price had rolled back and only after it returned, the price has managed to fix under this resistance level, AND then resistance has become a support! Please, remember this thing, because it is the main point here. Price had bounced from this new support level, and we could open a trade.

If you still have any questions please feel free to ask.

Best Regards!

Anthony Schneider.

 
 

I will quote something from from Larry Williams. I hope that you understand better the the only edge in the markets are you as a trader and not any indicator.

Can You Handle The Truth ?

There are as many ways to supposedly beat the market as there are market players.

In my search for "what works" I don't think I have left many stones, if any, unturned. To save you time, money and frustration, I'm going to shoot straight from the hip and tell you what I have found to be true for me.

I'm going to step on toes and do all I can to destroy market myths...this will upset many people...so be it. These comments are based on my experience. I am more than willing to listen to "the other side of the story" but my search has shown the following:

W. D. GANN---This is the biggest fraud going. I knew Gann's son and promotion manager. The wild claims about W. D. are incorrect and do no match with what his son and F. B. Thatcher told me. I bought the Gann $5,000 course. It is a collection of general commentaries laced with astrology. Gann, shortly before he died, sold his advisory service to 2 or 3 different people at the same time.

FIBONNACI--Here's a technique that claims to be able to tell us where markets will go to, or retrace to, based on a pattern of numbers. The pattern goes like 1,2,3,5,8,13 and on and on. Each new number is the sum of the last 2 numbers. Additionally, going back, say from 13 to 8 is a 61.8% retracement. I have shown, from actual market studies of turning points, that these supposed resistant points of 61.8, 38.0 are meaningless...that in fact, markets are no more apt to bottom or top at these numbers than any other number.

ASTROLOGY---Frankly, while a skeptic and doubting Thomas, I have seen some evidence that in some way people are affected by all this. Guys like Arch Crawford have had too many good calls, and the Bradley Model as well, to diss the entire subject.

Yet....this is no sure thing either.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS----Ah, great focus has been placed on the fact that a market will "bounce" off former highs and lows. The notion is that what was once support (a market low) will become resistance if a market has fallen below and is rallying back to that area. It will...about half the time...and no one can tell you which half!

POINT AND FIGURE CHARTS/CANDLESTICK CHARTS---These are just different ways of looking at price patterns. I think Point and Figure (P&F) is a waste of time...it leaves time out of the equation. Besides, P&F charts of stocks look the same as P&F charts of spins on a roulette wheel.

Candlestick charts are an art form. I have programmed close to 100 of their supposed "best patterns" and have found that most of the time the patterns are meaningless or don’t work as the vendors of this ilk claim.

THE BOTTOM LINE---There are few paths to easy wealth and sudden riches....I have many friends that use the tools discussed above and do well. How can that be? Because these people are smart, good traders and use these as tools...there is no one mystic formula to this business. Why? Because the market is bombarded every day with random influences. I hope all this helps in your pursuit of what is true for you.

Larry Williams.

 

there are two areas within TA: subjective and objective.

objective its very simple. unambigous buy/sell signals generated by indicators. statistics can be applied to measure system's accuracy.

subjective, "grey" area. everything is ambiguous. cannot measure accuracy because theres no real boundary.

so to say trendline, support resistance works, which are subjective side of TA, is ambiguous, because the very nature of this area of TA is ambiguous and no solid boundaries exist.....almost like astrology or religion.

EBTA by arson states future will demand evidenced based TA and religious beliefs will be wiped.

 
jjk2:
there are two areas within TA: subjective and objective.

.....

so to say trendline, support resistance works, which are subjective side of TA, is ambiguous, because the very nature of this area of TA is ambiguous and no solid boundaries exist.....almost like astrology or religion.

So, when we have a system comprising of two elements one of which is subjective or ambiguous, the whole system is subjective or ambiguous isn't it?

Bottom line: TA is always ambiguous

 

A question (an ambiguous one?

Sauron:
Hello.

Take a look at the picture

20071026+-+gbp02.gif (image)

At this picture we could see how powerful resistance level was broken.

My comments.

At 3:30 (M5 GMT) the price tried to break this level for the first time, but it didn't manage to do so though. After a little time we could see the first break up to 2.0536. Remember, we mustn't open the trade at once, when level was broken for the first time! As you can see, the price had rolled back and only after it returned, the price has managed to fix under this resistance level, AND then resistance has become a support! Please, remember this thing, because it is the main point here. Price had bounced from this new support level, and we could open a trade.

Anthony,

thank you very much for your comment. Seems like you have some kind of system.

let's get into this ambiguous thing (TA) right now You said that "the price has managed to fix above the level". What do you mean by that? How do you define "fixing"?

Thanks

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