XO_Method REVISED - page 79
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This afternoon's entry.........
I am still amazed at how many people ask me whether they should have the CCi-5 on EVERY TF!!! Either these guys do NOT read the explanation contained in Suk's PDF-file (or my explanation in this Thread) or they are just outright lazy to read at all.
Please understand that I do NOT trade without the CCi - period. Whatever the settings are, there is ALWAYS a CCi-5 on every single TF. The TREND CCi vary according to the TF.
Here are today's entries on M15 which is better for a slow market like this one.
It seems as if everyone is still on summer vacation. I do hope to see more activity here soon.
Suk when you read this, are you competing in Beijing?
I am a bit embarrassed for not having asked sooner, but the Games have not started yet. Looking forward to hearing from you some time soon.
Best wishes to all.
Weekly chart this morning..........
My previous Weekly-chart at the Close of the week 13 July (in other words 18th July was the Friday in that week) I suggested that the GBP/USD may short due to divergence on the RSi-2 and the fact that the RSi-2 was sitting at the 78,6%-level.
The next week there were only 139 pips in total before closing at 1.9906 (+50 pips), so all in all not a good week. BUT what happened was that the RSi-2 crossed the RSi-4 and closed < 50%-level which in itself is significant. That started the bear run until this morning where the CCi-5 is @ -166,66% (total overheat) and the RSi-2 @ 2,9% at time of writing. (I will update this post tomorrow with end-of-week figures)
Updated figures as promised: The price went as Low as -50% Fib and retraced to close on the -38,2% Fib of the current active leg. However, notice also that there is a BLUE-broken lined Fib of 50% retracement, which is a Fib of a bigger picture which I will show in a Post this morning. (#POST 787 ) This is why these Fibs are so necessary!! (You may think that my charts are cluttered with Fibonacci lines, but in real-time they are not. I suggest you train yourself to drawing these Fib-lines regularly and for the lazy ones, there is an automatic version available which I posted for Big Joe just higher up.)
Also, the price went and took out the historic 1.9337 level generated in week ending 25th January 2008.
The price went down to 123,6% Fib level which in itself is a significant level. It actually went to the 150%-line briefly before retracing to close on the 38.2% level of the active leg of the Fib-calculations.
So it seems as if we can either expect a retrace to 1.9384 which is the 23,6% retracement of the current leg or at the very least, a sideways consolidation until the oscillators have reset itself (in my language and here is where my lack of knowledge is apparent. I need some one like Richard M. Morrish, Head of Research at MIG to teach me still)
Speaking of Richard, who went on a well deserved holiday yesterday, you can sometimes find him on CNBC. He suggested that the next SUPPORT levels are 1.8994 and 1.8510.
He also predicted that the price may bounce back from these levels to 1.9522 > 1.9665 > 1.9756.
Richard Morrish is in a class of his own and I thank him for sharing such knowledge.
I will ask him once he is back, to post his weekly take of the market on this Forum.
Best wishes for next week and always.
My point? Watch the WEEKLY chart for your overall performance.
Overall Fib-levels of Weekly chart
Here is just a plain WEEKLY chart showing you where I took the Fib-levels from and also to see where the 50% Support @ 1.9203 in Magenta, comes from.
The Red Fib-lines are the retracing leg and here the price went down to nearly 150%.
The Blue Fib-lines are just the current ACTIVE leg to see if we can determine a possible area of retrace to and @ 23,6% @ 1.9384 (+137 pips) before it may come down to 1.8907. Fascinating stuff, isn't it?
Best wishes for a successful August.
Daily chart.........
And finally, the DAILY chart. It needs no further explanation; just to see that the price closed on the 50% Fib-retrace with RSis totally overheated and yet the CCi-5 only @ -148.41%
Best wishes.
Close-up view of Weekly chart...........
This is just to let you see the close-up version of the previous chart. It makes for better understanding, especially the "fore casting" Blue fibs with a retracement suggestion to 23,6% @ 1.9384.
HOURLY chart............
I was recently an invited guest at an Ophthalmological Congress and was intrigued by an article I picked up to read describing the "fovea centralis" and its role in the eye. So, like a good scholar, I went and looked it up at Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fovea). What is most fascinating to me is the fact that I have always had a problem reading the scrolling news down at the bottom of the TV during News Times. Much to my surprise I now discovered why it is in fact NORMAL for us not to see that if we are focused on the news bulletin.
The article quotes from a group of researchers at Harvard University led by psychologist Barbara Flagg, who were expert in something called "eye movement photography". Eye movement research is based on the idea that the human eye is capable of focusing on only a very small area at one time- what is called a perceptual span. When we read, we are capable of taking in only about one key word and then four characters to the left and fifteen characters to the right at any one time. We jump from one of these chunks to another, pausing - or fixating on them long enough to make sense of each letter.
The reason we can focus clearly on only that much text is that most of the sensors in our eyes are clustered in a small region in the very middle of the retina, called the "fovea". (Wikipedia says................The foveal pit is not located exactly on the optical axis, but is displaced about 4 to 8 degrees temporal to it.) That is why we move our eyes when we read; we cannot pick up much information about the shape or the colour, or the structure of words unless we focus our fovea directly on them.
Is it surprising then that the people making TV-commercials are obsessed with eye tracking.
Long story short, we need to rearrange our screens in such a way that whatever is THE most important information to us, hits us straight in the eye.
Almost all eye movement research demonstrates, when it comes to TV, people tend to fixate on the centre of the screen.
Hence my moving the CCI to the very first window in my HOURLY chart as well as the M15 and M5. I need to see immediately what the CCI-5 is doing and I can assure you that it works. Ignore the RSIs sitting in window 1 on the H4 and H8 TFs. That I can explain in as much that it takes that much longer to occur and therefore I spent more time focusing on each and every indicator on the longer TFs.
See you in the next Post for details of the Hourly chart.
Looks as though MIG research also predicts a bounce right now in cable as opposed to continued downsided pressure. Certainly the figures just released are in support of that.
I wanted to share my H8 chart because it gave me the direction before and after the news due to the significant break of the EMA. I made the most of the short and noticed the approaching Entrex. MS2 seemed to meet Entrex on my H1 chart which gave good target and exit @ 1.8600. Can we learn more about the Entrex (how it works and how it is traded as a strategy on it's own?)
I found the H8 below was a good clue because the direction was short on H1 but overheated CCI, also CCI5 on H4 overheated to -165 but there was more than 100 mins on the clock and price had broken crucial EMAs again...