Simbasystem-gbpusd - page 50

[[Deleted]]

simba king

hi simba

thx a lot for the alarm wpr's

u know i love the volatility of usd/yen

it swings a million times a day

and with ur brilliant wpr i'll see it in a better way

i'll chick and post

my best regards

[[Deleted]]

[e-mail]:
hi simba

first i d like to thank u very much for ur kind care and effort and patience

i wanted to watch 1H frame becos

- i can see stops at close of 1h bar

- 4h xp is more close to price

- i put mtf _wpr (5M/ 90 of course )

*THE PROBLEM IS

'' WPR SIGNAL ON 5M CHART IS SHIFTED POSITION FROM THE IH CHART ''

ANY IDEA

WISH U THE BEST

REGARDS

hi simba

i'm still having the problem

sorry for bad english

the signal of mtf wpr changes its position when i switch to 1h chart though i set mtf_ wpr to ( 5m and period 90 ) so i shd see it as it looks on 5m chart

pics at previous post

[[Deleted]]

check this

hi simba

pls correct me if i'm wrong

-sell when mtf_wpr ( 30m / period 1 cross below -50 and the 30m candle closes ) _ so sell at open of next 30m candle

- if it goes againest u pick better price to make avarege so u have 2 lots

-take profit only 10 pips ( mostly u'll get more )

-stop loss ( if ur target was not hit ) at the opposite cross upward

-buy at cross up

- u could hv trades with dir of trend to live longer time ( dont exit if inverse cross happens cos ur in the trend direction )_mostly those well reach target

[SIMBA]

Shamstec

[e-mail]:
hi simba

i'm still having the problem

sorry for bad english

the signal of mtf wpr changes its position when i switch to 1h chart though i set mtf_ wpr to ( 5m and period 90 ) so i shd see it as it looks on 5m chart

pics at previous post

Hi shamstec

Well,i haven`t tried your mtf wpr but what I would say is that mtf works when you reduce the time dimension of the chart,not the opposite..so,you can see a 1h wpr in 5m chart but not a 5m wpr on 1h chart

Simba

[SIMBA]

shamstec

[e-mail]:
hi simba

pls correct me if i'm wrong

-sell when mtf_wpr ( 30m / period 1 cross below -50 and the 30m candle closes ) _ so sell at open of next 30m candle

- if it goes againest u pick better price to make avarege so u have 2 lots

-take profit only 10 pips ( mostly u'll get more )

-stop loss ( if ur target was not hit ) at the opposite cross upward

-buy at cross up

- u could hv trades with dir of trend to live longer time ( dont exit if inverse cross happens cos ur in the trend direction )_mostly those well reach target

hi shamstec

this is not so,you use a 5m wpr with settings to -5 and -95,90 periods,and you only entrybuy when satl 4h is blue and wpr 5m is below -95...and you only entrysell when satl 4h red and wpr 5m above -5

My recomendation is that you read the posts on this thread so that you acquaint yourself with the mechanics of the system

at this stage we are checking,with a great effort from Malcik,some variations with the chandelier stops,but not yet finalized

You can use wpr as a trend definer too,see pic,using -50 as the separation line(use periods 35 and 1h,4h,1d tfs..and above all,go for at least 80 pips profit ),but first this is not the system this thread is trying to explain and second there are better ways to define a trend..

Simba

[Malcik]

Hi all,

Finally some results from me. It's again only as of November but on M1 it still makes about 150 trades to this day.

The major entry, exit, P/T, and Balance column are for this system:

ENTRY:

Last SATL and Chandelier both close blue/red

Last W%R closes below -95 / above -5

No reentries until opposite side of W%R has been reached and the price has retraced back

No entries before 7:00 am CET, after 10:00 pm CET, 30 minutes before major news (marked red on http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?c=2&week=1171152000&do=displayweek&month=2&year=2007, or 10 minutes after the news

No entries Friday afternoon (as of 1 pm CET)

EXIT:

Initial SL 1 pip below/above last Chandelier

When entering long with price below Chandelier or within 5 pips above (other way around for short positions), use no SL

Exit when W%R closes above -5 / below -95 and/or SATL changes color and/or Chandelier changes color

Exit 5 minutes before major news, 5 minutes before midnight, or 5 minutes before 1 pm Friday

I.e. basic SimbaSystem with no trading around the news and with using W%R for entry. I chose this so that we can see what move (way up or way down or sideways) the market really made after the entry. For example, 20 pips TP would only have told us whether or not it moved 20 pips in our direction. I also allowed for long entries with price slightly above or even below Chandelier (opposite for short) till the top of the hour when we know if that Chandelier is still valid or not.

Besides that you can see what levels of TP (both in terms of pips and in terms of multiples of distance from Chandelier at the time of our entry) would have been reached. You can see initial distances from SATL and Chandelier (positive number means price ahead of the indicator (above for long, below for short), negative means the contrary). At the end of the file, you will find a quick analysis of the distance to Chandelier - it seems to me that we should pay attention to this issue. I also tried to do the same for SATL but from there I couldn't derive any dependencies. What is your opinion?

After we agree on these distances, I would suggest to solve the TP issue. Or do you think that W%R would be better to be used for exits? In M5, it didn't really work out.

Well, sorry it took so long... that's the way manual backtests are. Well I admit I ran away from it time to time and wanted to read "just a few more" pages of Hurst's book I can't deny that, as far as the backtests that are up next, I would appreciate some division of labor. On the other hand, I would suggest that we wait for the testing EA to be finished so that we can do the partial tests this way which is obviously a lot faster. This apply to all the backtests we've spoken about -- and plus, I would suggest some backtest associated with SimbaConMan - I'd like to see it at work as an indicator in SimbaSystem. Still though, the more people help us with it, the even faster we will come to some conclusions.

Simba, what is your opinion on the backtest and on the next steps?

Edit:

I forgot to talk about money management. The account is $2,000 and one position is one minilot, i.e. 1 pip = $1.00. This should be in accordance with what Simba said about my last backtest, which was with same money management like this one, only I didn't mention it there I used 4 pips as spread and 1 pip as slippage. In the preceding tests I used larger slippage because I thought it was right -- I don't have live experience, I don't know what slippage is common.

Take care everyone

[SIMBA]

Malcik

Malcik:
Hi all,

Finally some results from me. It's again only as of November but on M1 it still makes about 150 trades to this day.

The major entry, exit, P/T, and Balance column are for this system:

ENTRY:

Last SATL and Chandelier both close blue/red

Last W%R closes below -95 / above -5

No reentries until opposite side of W%R has been reached and the price has retraced back

No entries before 7:00 am CET, after 10:00 pm CET, 30 minutes before major news (marked red on http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?c=2&week=1171152000&do=displayweek&month=2&year=2007, or 10 minutes after the news

No entries Friday afternoon (as of 1 pm CET)

EXIT:

Initial SL 1 pip below/above last Chandelier

When entering long with price below Chandelier or within 5 pips above (other way around for short positions), use no SL

Exit when W%R closes above -5 / below -95 and/or SATL changes color and/or Chandelier changes color

Exit 5 minutes before major news, 5 minutes before midnight, or 5 minutes before 1 pm Friday

I.e. basic SimbaSystem with no trading around the news and with using W%R for entry. I chose this so that we can see what move (way up or way down or sideways) the market really made after the entry. For example, 20 pips TP would only have told us whether or not it moved 20 pips in our direction. I also allowed for long entries with price slightly above or even below Chandelier (opposite for short) till the top of the hour when we know if that Chandelier is still valid or not.

Besides that you can see what levels of TP (both in terms of pips and in terms of multiples of distance from Chandelier at the time of our entry) would have been reached. You can see initial distances from SATL and Chandelier (positive number means price ahead of the indicator (above for long, below for short), negative means the contrary). At the end of the file, you will find a quick analysis of the distance to Chandelier - it seems to me that we should pay attention to this issue. I also tried to do the same for SATL but from there I couldn't derive any dependencies. What is your opinion?

After we agree on these distances, I would suggest to solve the TP issue. Or do you think that W%R would be better to be used for exits? In M5, it didn't really work out.

Well, sorry it took so long... that's the way manual backtests are. Well I admit I ran away from it time to time and wanted to read "just a few more" pages of Hurst's book I can't deny that, as far as the backtests that are up next, I would appreciate some division of labor. On the other hand, I would suggest that we wait for the testing EA to be finished so that we can do the partial tests this way which is obviously a lot faster. This apply to all the backtests we've spoken about -- and plus, I would suggest some backtest associated with SimbaConMan - I'd like to see it at work as an indicator in SimbaSystem. Still though, the more people help us with it, the even faster we will come to some conclusions.

Simba, what is your opinion on the backtest and on the next steps?

Edit:

I forgot to talk about money management. The account is $2,000 and one position is one minilot, i.e. 1 pip = $1.00. This should be in accordance with what Simba said about my last backtest, which was with same money management like this one, only I didn't mention it there I used 4 pips as spread and 1 pip as slippage. In the preceding tests I used larger slippage because I thought it was right -- I don't have live experience, I don't know what slippage is common.

Take care everyone

Hi Malcik,

First,congratulations and thanks for your excellent job and the effort you have put into this test

Second,give me a few hours to analyze and digest it for full comments

Third,initial comment:definitely wpr not usable for exits..why?quick quizz...

Would you sell when1M/ 5M wpr>-5..in a 4h UPtrend?

Would you buy when 1M/5M wpr<-95..in a 4h DOWNtrend?

If you answered no because you rightly fear these won`t be positive entries,but negative ones..why using something that detracts to improve a system? think about it and you will understand my meaning..comparing with just running the trend,these kind of exits will be worse,so they worsen a system and ,obviously,do not improve it..

Simba

[SIMBA]

Malcik

Hi Malcik,

There is one problem with your test,if I have understood it right,and the problem is that just exiting at opposite wpr is not a good thing as I told you in my previous post...

Can you post the results,for all the entries,and exit just at change in Chand1h or satl4h ?

PLEASE SEE ATTACHED PICs..the pics are in 5m because visually I couldn`t put the complete sequence in 1m,just to try to convey what I mean..

first pic you have 2 entries,the max distance from first(and ,in this case second too) entry was approx 105 pips,and the exit trough chandelier was with approx 50 pips profit...

second pic,1 entry max dist 134 pips,exit by chand 60 pips..

This way we will know more about the average percourse of price and at what point it can be useful to "design" a tp strategy based or not on chand,ie,on volatility...for 5m and for 1m tfs

If you can without doing any extra effort,just post,if not,don`t worry,I will do it during next week..Hopefully..;)

Thanks again and regards

Simba

[Malcik]

SIMBA:
Hi Malcik,

There is one problem with your test,if I have understood it right,and the problem is that just exiting at opposite wpr is not a good thing as I told you in my previous post...

Can you post the results,for all the entries,and exit just at change in Chand1h or satl4h ?

PLEASE SEE ATTACHED PICs..the pics are in 5m because visually I couldn`t put the complete sequence in 1m,just to try to convey what I mean..

first pic you have 2 entries,the max distance from first(and ,in this case second too) entry was approx 105 pips,and the exit trough chandelier was with approx 50 pips profit...

second pic,1 entry max dist 134 pips,exit by chand 60 pips..

This way we will know more about the average percourse of price and at what point it can be useful to "design" a tp strategy based or not on chand,ie,on volatility...for 5m and for 1m tfs

If you can without doing any extra effort,just post,if not,don`t worry,I will do it during next week..Hopefully..;)

Thanks again and regards

Simba

I understand what hopefully means Here it is, it didn't even hurt... Exits are always as soon as Chandelier or SATL change their color (it is almost always Chandelier). The trades that would have had to be carried over a weekend are marked. Beware that I didn't modify entries so there are no entries during nighttime, no entries Friday afternoon and no entries just before/after news.

Still it should serve as a good overview of how the system reacts to trends. Would have made some real nice profits, although I'd like to see someone with such guts to trade it live

Looking forward to new comments and conlusions, till then bye

[SIMBA]

Malcik test

Hi Malcik ,and everybody else..

Thanks a lot for your effort..the results are impressive..basically I will sum them up,I understand that 3months,150 trades is not enough,but until we have the EA,if we have it ,we(until now we=Malcik..so thanks again) have to test manually..and it takes a lot of time..so,for now I would say that the 1m version is promising and the first candidate for EA testing on 1m ,2 and a half years of data.

1-1M TF,3 months approx,150 completed trades..see above mentioned comment

2-Profit Factor: 2.95...very good,in 3 months impressive..we have to check on 2.5 years basis

3-Max drawdown PEAK TO BOTTOM in %..we have 2 very similar runs -19.8% and -20.6%...it is high..we have to work on it,by either reducing the max accumulated positions(free until now ,even for losing trades until stopped the system kept accumulating lots on each signal..which in itself means that the chandelier keeps you safe even with excessively leveraged positions),or including some kind of filter for additional positions ie:do not open new one unless at least x pips distance from the first

4-%W= 36%..%L= 64%..the percentage winning trades is low-probably point 3 above modifications will help in improving it-and some form of Tp,even partial must be devised to improve it,the good results come from riding the trend..to the hilt..net Average(for all trades,positive+negative) per trade (25,67 pips),Average W and Average L are,in my opinion non pertinent since there is too much deviation to extract meaning from an average

5-Basically the system,and excuse the expression,runs by runs..from 2000usd to 1604(it starts overleveraging and then Chand cuts it off),then from 1604 to 7421(it starts earning money and overleveraging until stopped out by Chand at a big profit),then from 7421 to 5890..This is extremely interesting,once we have the full test for 2.5 years of data on 1m,we can try to devise some additional filter to improve the results

There is additional interesting comments that Malcik wants to post,and I think these will help us understand better what can we expect and how to modify our system

Simba