Cost Averaging System - page 11
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Cost Average v3 moving profitably but look at the explosive gains with RSI. John
hi yeoeleven...
You have good results... And i like the Cost RSI...
Could u please tell me what Timeframe do you use? ?
keep going...
Cost Averaging EA test
Another good day for RSI.
v3 is trying to recover.
Aaragorn,
Have you seen Hendrick's document how to get 90% modelling quality (from Firebird thread)?
hi yeoeleven...
You have good results... And i like the Cost RSI...
Could u please tell me what Timeframe do you use? ?
keep going...I tested it on 15M charts. However, I think tests on 15M, 30M, 60M and 240M should be done to see how they work out. A preliminary backtest using good quality data should be done. As the system works of closed bar data, effect of interpolating to obtain tick data should not be too much or even negligible. Some members have good quality data and they can do that back test. The objective of the backtest is to find the profit targets for different time frames. In my mind, the profit targets for 240M should be higher than 15M.
hi yeoeleven...
You have good results... And i like the Cost RSI...
Could u please tell me what Timeframe do you use? ?
keep going...I am using M30 on EURUSD GBPJPY GBPCHF AUDUSD EURJPY USDCHF and using the default settings.
John
ok it's come back to this...I'm getting two different backtest results on the same settings...oy vey
Again, Metatrader stumps me. No idea what is going on there.
Adx as exhaustion indicator...
Maji,
In my opinion, I don't think you should disregard the use of ADX as a trend exhaustion indicator. First of all it is my observation that the Expert should not take a new counter-trend position based only on the pipstep. I have posted a picture of my example. This is the latest of v4 on the USDCHF. Why take the second sell position when the trend is still up? It doesn't make sense. Take the next position (second sell) upon the next peak of ADX (red arrows).
The 10 period ADX always shows exhaustion in the current timeframe. It may be a short lived trend exhaustion, however I believe that by using the ADX peaks as trend exhaustion, we will reduce the risk of margin calls.
Because the script is not just willy-nilly taking counter-trend positions based only on pip-step. It will take more strategicly placed counter-trend positions based on ADX peaks that are beyond the pip-step level.
I have been wanting to develop a hedging strategy using ADX in different timeframes, however I don't have the time right now. But I believe this EA could use the ADX and possibly oversold/overbought readings on Williams %R.
Let me know what you think.
Carl
Statement for Version 3
My results on FXDD, version 3, 1min chart, six pairs
Balance: 5 694.61 Equity: 5 546.81
ok it's come back to this...I'm getting two different backtest results on the same settings...oy vey
I'm really trying to get rid of the big blow up events here...is this helping?
I wonder if my fears about this are justified?
My goal is to see just how tightly this can be made to fly. I'm working from the premis of a mini account with only 350 dollars in it. My reasoning is that if I can make it start with that and go well then that improves it's safety. Like giving it the stress test as much as I can to see how well it will do under pressure.
What I am observing is that it tends to recover from practically everything except when it loses it's initial position which only rarely does. These catastrophic drawdowns I've been talking about are all relative to this really small account.
When I ratchet out the pipstep to 95 or so and crank up the lot exponent to 5.... and then allow maxtrades=3 it's practically invincible. It seems to bounce back from anything the backtester can throw at it.
I am beginning to believe that this catastrophic drawdown I observed at the end of backtests is more a backtester anamolie than anything actual that occurs in real forward trading....If this is the case than I'm going to ditch my fears and anxities about this and go live with it in my real account. I havn't confirmed this as of yet but I'm hotly suspecting that the biggest drawdown are those small blips when it loses it's first position before enlarging with additional positions, they make small dents which are quickly made up for.
ooooo hang on...
I'm onto something...
let me make a new post....
I think I'm onto something here....
I apologize that I can't upload more than 5 files at a time here....
I'm giving you 3 .htm files and 2 .gif's
The thing I believe I've discovered is this...
My fear about this has always been those crashes when it bankrupts the account. Hate when that happens.
So first I limit the maxtrades=2
My tests show that it makes more than maxtrades=3 anyway.
If you don't allow it to get into really large lot sizes you can run it on smaller accounts without risking the really big crashes.
Secondly and just as important. I've been playing with the pipstep. It appears from just these three pairs that when I test and get one of those catastrophic crashes if I'm using a pipstep of 85 that changing to 100 clears it right up on the pair and if I'm using 100 then I change it to 85 on that pair and it clears it right up.
The timing of how far out it engages with the second position makes a difference depending on which pair. Not all pairs have the same 'frequency' if you will (for lack of a better word for it)
I believe that optomizing the pip step for each pair is something worth taking the time to do. I don't have all my alpari history installed but I'm going to get on it, this is worth doing.
I'm beginning to think that this system is practically invincible once it's fine tuned right.
I'm not even doing this on the rsi version this is just v2_1 I'm doing this for.
If as others say the rsi version is more stable than this will only enhance that as well.
Imagine the fine tuned best version of this running on all pairs...
It would be practically invincible if we managed the margins!
Cost Average v3 moving profitably but look at the explosive gains with RSI. John
would you post your RSI version with your settings preset in it? are you running the same settings as tomstaufer?