The Murrey Math Trading System - page 33
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CMC
i completely agree with u
i trade on 4% margin
this means in my dictionary that every 100 pips = 4 % of my account size!
so , where will the pair go ??? in the worst cases , it will go -500 pips ??
this means 20 % loss of my capital !
i said in the worst cases , i monitor my trades once per day before i go to sleep while the market is lazy and back-up my positions , so if the MM lines updated itself , i make a hedge trade with double the size of the first one..
P.S. : needs good practice and money manangement , so take care guys ...
just my 2 cents
all the best
CMC with SL?
Hi CMC
How about a SL of 100...
Can you check your history..?
How many losing and winning trades would you have made with a 1:1 Risk reward ratio?
If MM works really well, you should have well above 60 % winning trades..
Just a suggestion to sleep better when beeing in a trade...:-)
i wouldnt say that price will eventually snap back...i mean i guess i cant say i know it wont snap back when you look at a timespan of infinity, but just look at any weekly or monthly chart of a pair with JPY or USDCAD, sometimes things just trend for a long long time.
maybe you can break even when you're 50
Hi CMC
How about a SL of 100...
Can you check your history..?
How many losing and winning trades would you have made with a 1:1 Risk reward ratio?
If MM works really well, you should have well above 60 % winning trades..
Just a suggestion to sleep better when beeing in a trade...:-)yup CMC, I know where you are coming from, but no stops at all?... not good.. yes I've lost a lot to stops too..BUT.. I still have my accounts...
my day trades can usually have 10-30 pip stops and bigger trades may have 60-100+.. it depends on where MM level is and where price is in relation to the Fibs... but thats just me.
I'd say if your going to trade that wide open at least use some protection.. maybe take the ADR for the pair x 1.5+or- but on the other side of the MM level you entered on... at least that way you might not get totally wiped out when this market finally comes out of this channel range and you give price action some room to breath. Theres nothing wrong with having far out stops as long as you've done some projections to show where you believe price is heading... MM can get you in the trade and give you a range, Fibs will help confirm direction and targets, and when MM over laps Fibs its all the more better.
I had a short EUR in april, no stop, was confident price was going down from the 2100 area for another test of the 1700 area,price bolted north and never looked back... -$8k later I got my first truely humbling experience for not having a stop. It totally changed how I trade now.. had I been using fib like I do now I would never have entered that trade short..
My point is, know why you got in and know where you intend to go, then you can safely place stops with a little more comfort... even if they are far out, at least you have a some protection
Hi everyone,
I would like to ask, which tf is the best one? Thanks for the help.
Regards
Hi ejo3s
15 min is good, because it is very responsive. If trading with MM though, the lines give you an entry price regardless of time frame.
CMC
Hello,
I'm glad I've finally found a forum on MM ! I have been experimenting with it, using the indicators for MT4. I know that a lot of people are very enthusiastic about MM and say that it made them become profitable. Well, I hope that it will do the same thing for me, as I have tried many things over the past years...
I am using 64 day period, is that how Murray intended it ? Also, I hope that one doesn't fool oneself by the fact that the MM lines recalculate ( which is logical), so that the line on which you would have entered a trade in hindsight wasn't there on the day price actually reached that line.
Oh, and regarding the stops issue... I don't think it's advisable to trade without 'em ...there can be huge trends, I don't have to tell you this. Just throw up a USD/JPY, EUR/JPY chart... sometimes price doesn't come back for years...I know the pain of being stopped out, especially in FX, as FX is noisier than equities...but to completely abandom them is not a solution imho.
Hi Trader Larry,
With the huge trend on the JPY for eg, you would not have entered a trade unless MM unless the lines were at an extreme, I can't remember what the readings were at that time, but I've had 2 successful short trades from those highs on the JPY. Iwould like to know the MM levels from your begin point.
CMC
ejo3s:
If you download MMOctave v5 you can change the scale to 8, 64, 512 and trade just on price. If you look at the currency volume you can determine how long it will take on average for the movement to occur.
All:
Regarding Stops and MM... When I went and looked at some of the "loosing eyeball trades" I found that Murrey really was right. Run half of your money 3 octaves and cash out, let the other half sail on a TS after 3 octaves. "Nobody ever went broke taking a profit" is what Murrey says.
Attached is a PDF that validates using SR=10,000 instead of the default SR for prices under 1.5625. This reinforces the code changes I made to MMOctave v5, since scale adjustments for currency are mentioned by Murrey. The standard intrabank lotsize is now quoted in 10k lots. I printed this page from a powerpoint, converted postscript to a PDF. The license at the start says I need to mention that Murrey Math is copyright and trademarked by Murrey Math Trading System in 1993. These figures are mentioned in regard to "Murrey Math Harmonic Octave". I can't disclose the actual trading rules, but this information is SR related only. I think that covers copyright usage and license.
I have been reading through the new MM materials I have. There "10 rules" are interesting because they are possible to confirm in part by other methods that are more reactive than predictive.
In other words, Murrey noticed that stuff happens. Traders notice that stuff happens. This is the same stuff. The difference is most indicators will tell you after the fact, and Murrey will tell you before it happens. He even gives percentage chances of reversals based on specific criteria. Trading just one of these percentages without any other rules or confirmation would likely be profitable on an even money bet, and even more profitable on a better bet. Since money bets on Murrey are easy to make 2TP:1SL or 3TP:1SL and 5TP:1SL they can be very good.
I did find a confirmation of when to enter a +/- 1 trade but I haven't deciphered it yet. "Too many traders think any market will move back to old lows or highs but they must move through any +2/8ths or -2/8ths and hold at this price for four days in a row or move past these MMTLines by an additional 30 cents."
I can see why most MM material doesn't mention currencies and forex.
#1 the timeframes are screwy, the intrabank trading requirements are 2 days, not 3.
#2 There are 3 major markets, with overlap, instead of 1 market. After eyeballing some charts I'm thinking about making MMI dependent only on a market, 8 hours at a time with -1 MMI and +1 MMI. I have seen very strong trends that only lasted 8 hours, and then trading was over and the next market decided their market action separately. That creates 15 markets per week, I might ignore or overlap for the 16th in testing.
#3 Daily data & conflict centers are more reliable without news. News creates price gaps, and those gaps don't obey the same rules. After the news settles down (15min after release) the MM lines seem to be restored. News spikes may simply need an additional filter to omit them from statistical reference checks - or create an indeterminate result.
Those disclaimers aside... wow. There is some "low hanging fruit" that can go in EA easily once MMI are constructed. Without timeframes, we can focus on the octave movements for profit/loss. A simple trend reversal system can be constructed based on the octaves. The +/- 1/2 trade system can be implemented very simply but we don't get as many trading signals. A time (flat hours or days based on scale - maybe # of bars) based filter can be applied for confirmation. looking at the last 64+8 bars will probably tell us a good MML frame to use for the bar based scale and also used for autoscaling in the indicators.
With time frames, we can do so very much more. Calculate 4 different reversal numbers (MMI octave based, parallel lines based, connecting MMI to MML, and pure MML) and do trend reversing, based on the type of reversal each method has a separate confirmation and exit strategy, etc.
Then we get into the esoteric stuff. Polarities of the 2-1-2 zone defense (circles of conflict) indicating reversal based on previous momentum in octave time interval. Trading range as % used as confirmation for MMI signals on activity, some sacred geometry used on MMI/MML squares to determine likely price range (Harmonic Triangle 68% of Time), etc.
I know I can write an EA that does reversal based trading. I don't know if I can make a Sacred Geometry EA or circle of conflict. The charts do *seem* to follow the lines indicated but we would need to do a lot of math to confirm this as statistically significant (for example, the Harmonic Triangle consumes 50% of the area for the MM Square but represents 68% price activity) and so on.
I am torn between making an MMI indicator, and an MML trading EA. I think the EA would be a better place to start, especially since MMI is something I still don't know how to correct Murrey Math for. (132 hours converted to 128 hour weeks, 64 trading days, 15 trading markets per week corrected to 16 in some manner, etc.)
Any votes for MML EA vs MMI indicator?