Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 2

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Gold short now

Mauro Giuseppe Tondo, 2017.02.02 10:49

Gold
short now 1216.50 target 1170.70 stop 1220


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.11 08:06

Weekly Outlook: 2017, February 12 - February 19 (based on the article)



GDP data from Japan and Germany, Inflation data from the UK and the US, Janet Yellen’s testimony before the US Senate, US retail sales, Crude Oil Inventories, Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Employment figures from the US, The UK and Australia. These are the main events on Forex calendar.
  1. Japan GDP data: Sun 23:50. Economists expect a 0.3% growth rate in the final quarter of 2016.
  2. German GDP data: Tuesday, 7:00. Analysts expect a  growth rate of 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016.
  3. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 09:30. CPI is expected to rise 1.9% in January.
  4. US PPI: Tuesday, 13:30. Producer prices are estimated to gain 0.3% in January.
  5. Janet Yellen speaks: Tuesday, 15:00. The chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC.
  6. UK Employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. UK jobless claims are expected to increase 1,100 in January.
  7. US Inflation data: Wednesday, 13:30. Economists expect a 0.3% gain in consumer prices and a  0.2% rise for core CPI.
  8. US Retail sales: Tuesday, 13:30. Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.1% and core sales are estimated a 0.4% gain in January.
  9. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
  10. Australian employment data: Thursday, 0:30.
  11. US Building Permits: Thursday, 13:30. 
  12. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 13:30.
  13. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The four-week moving average of claims fell 3,750 to 244,250, the lowest level since November 1973.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.12 09:19

Markets To Watch In The Week Ahead (based on the article)


"The April crude oil contract rallied sharply from Wednesday's low at $51.86 on news that the OPEC measures to reduce production are actually working. Crude sill closed the week a bit lower so this week's close will be important."


"The Comex gold futures have rallied $100 from the mid December lows and have retraced 50% of the decline from the July highs.  The former support, line a, is now important resistance. It is in the 1284 area along with the weekly starc+ band and the 61.8% resistance level."


  • "The weekly Nasdaq 100 A/D line broke out to the upside in early January (see arrow) and has since accelerated to the upside in impressive fashion. The A/D line is well above its rising WMA as is the daily A/D line which has also made new highs."
  • "The strong close last week favors more gains this month. The completion of the daily flag formation in the S&P futures has upside targets at 2330 and then 2340.  The recent buying in the small cap stocks indicates that they could start leading on the upside."
  • "I do expect to see a 5% or more correction sometime this spring but is may have to wait until April as some investors try to get a jump on the sell in May phenomenon. There should be plenty of warning before such a correction. There are still some sector ETFs that look attractive for new buying."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.18 18:33

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Highlighting this week’s economic docket was Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony before congress. The remarks casted a slightly more hawkish outlook as Yellen warned of the risks of keeping rates too low for too long and while we’ve heard this commentary before, it’s becoming increasingly more relevant as U.S. economic data continues to heat up. That said, market expectations remains steady for a June rate hike with Fed Fund Futures pricing a 73% chance. Expectations for a hike at the May meeting have climbed to 56% - although it’s important to keep in mind the central bank has never hiked on an off-presser meeting (who knows, it’s the year of the ‘unprecedented’ – maybe they break suit?). For gold, look for a creep higher in interest rate expectations & strength in the greenback to curb demand for the yellow metal."

 
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Gold moving upwards.

Thomas Lawson, 2017.02.26 15:39

Gold is resting at the 61.8% fib level 1255.12. Most likely it will move higher to the 78.6% fib level 1291.01.

 


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.26 13:27

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "U.S. economic data picks up next week with traders eyeing the release of Durable Goods Orders, the second read on 4Q GDP and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) - the Fed’s preferred gauge on inflation. Keep in mind we have a host of voting FOMC speakers on tap next week with Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Fed Governor Lael Brainard, Fed Governor Jerome Powell, Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer and Chair Janet Yellen slated for commentary. Continued strength in US data may further the argument for a March rate-hike as a growing number of central bank officials favor normalizing monetary policy “sooner rather than later.” That said, a fresh batch of hawkish commentary may curb demand for gold prices which have surged more than 9.4% year-to-date."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.02 08:50

Gold: bounced from 200-day SMA to 10-day EMA to below for the daily bearish trend to be resumed (adapted from the article)

D1 price is located near and below 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart for 10 EMA to be crossing to below with 1,226 support level as the nearest daily target to re-enter:

  • "Technically, gold prices have declined substantially after trading to yearly highs earlier in the week at $1,264.06. Now, prices are trading back below their 10 day EMA (exponential moving average), which is found at $1,244.54. A daily close below this average should be considered as a bearish turn in the market, and traders should note that gold prices have not closed below this line since January 30th of this year. If prices decline further, on continued US Dollar strength, gold traders may begin looking for support near the February 21st low of $1,226.23."
  • "It should also be noted that the US Dollar remain well above their 10 day EMA at 101.20, which should be considered as a value of ongoing support. In the event that the US Dollar turns lower on today’s news, traders should look for the market to trade back toward this average. In a bearish US Dollar scenario, prices should form a long wick reconfirming the previous point of resistance referenced at 101.69. Also in the event that the US Dollar gives back its previous gains, traders should reasonably expect gold prices to rally eliminating its prior daily losses."
If the price breaks 1,264 resistance level so daily bullish reversal will be started.‌
If price breaks 1,226 support so the bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels waiting for direction.

Resistance
Support
1,2641,226
N/A
1,180


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1,226 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1,264 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY: ranging

TREND: waiting for direction

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.04 11:41

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Logic would dictate that a rate hike from the Fed would drive the dollar higher and gold, which yields nothing, lower. That pattern has been seen in the price action of the past couple days. However, if we pan out we can view how the two recent Fed rate hikes were followed by rising gold prices. It is clear from the chart below that increasing rates and even the recent increase in rate hike expectations has driven gold price higher."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.06 15:46

GOLD (XAU/USD): Bad news for gold when interest rates go up (based on the article)

Daily price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish trend on the chart: price was bounce from 1,263.79 resistance to below for the support level at 1,222.84 to be testing for the correctional trend to be continuing with 1,188/1,171 bearish daily reversal target.


  • "The price was largely impacted by Janet Yellen’s announcement on Friday that the Fed will likely be following through on the much anticipated March interest rate hikes. This would be bad news for gold as when interest rates go up, investors go to investments that show yields based on interest rates. The interest rate hikes could be announced as soon at the March 14-15 FOMC meeting and are expected to take hold very shortly thereafter, a pace faster than the Fed’s norm."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.09 10:20

GOLD (XAU/USD) - ranging correction with descending triangle pattern to be formed with 1,206 support level (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud and below 200-day SMA in the bullish area of the chart with the secondary ranging condition.

If the price breaks 200-day SMA value at 1,263.79 to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If daily price breaks 1,206.59 support level to below so the bearish reversal may be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging waiting for the direction of the trend.


  • "Gold prices have gotten crushed; moving from a swing-high above $1,250 just a week ago to below $1,210 as of this writing to tally a total move of -3.3% in a single week. To be sure, there is prime motivation for such a theme which is likely why we’ve seen such little respect of support as Gold prices have been on the way down. With a key Fed meeting next week in which the world may get just the 3rd rate hike from the bank in the past 10 years, the table is set for a continuation of USD-strength and few traders have wanted to stand in the way of the move-lower in Gold prices."
  • "So there is legitimate continuation potential here for further bearish momentum. For traders looking to gain such exposure, resistance at the $1,215.17 area could be extremely attractive for such a scenario. This is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2013-2015 major move in Gold prices, but perhaps more importantly this level has come as pertinent to price action over the past few months."


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