Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for EUR/USD - page 3

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.27 15:45

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and Bitcoin/USD: U.S. Advance GDP

2017-01-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.5 percent."

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EUR/USD M5: 44 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance GDP news events


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USD/CNH M5: 126 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance GDP news events


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BTC/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance GDP news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.28 12:30

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, January 29 - February 05 (based on the article)

EUR/USD made a move to higher ground but found it hard to continue rising. Will it make substantial falls? GDP and inflation figures stand out in a busy week.


  1. Spanish Flash GDP: Monday, 7:00. Another growth rate of 0.7% is expected for Q4.
  2. German CPI: Monday, data from the states during the morning and the final CPI measure is out at 13:00. After 0.7% in December, a drop of 0.5% is on the cards.
  3. French GDP: Tuesday, 6:30. A stronger growth rate of 0.4% is projected.
  4. German Retail Sales: Tuesday, 7:00. A bounce is on the cards now: 0.6%.
  5. French CPI: Tuesday, 7:45. A drop of 0.5% is forecast.
  6. Spanish CPI: Tuesday, 8:00. Another leap to 2.4% is expected.
  7. German Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 8:55. A slide of 5K is predicted.
  8. CPI: Tuesday, 10:00. Headline inflation is expected to continue rising, reaching 1.5%, while core inflation is expected to stand at 0.9% once again.
  9. GDP: Tuesday, 10:00. This time, output is predicted to increase by 0.4%.
  10. Manufacturing PMIs: Wednesday morning: 8:!5 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, the final figure for France at 8:50, final measure for Germany at 8:55 and the final number for the whole euro-zone at 9:00.
  11. EU Economic Forecasts: Wednesday, 10:00. The European Commission publishes updated economic forecasts twice a year.
  12. Spanish Unemployment Change: Thursday, 8:00. A rise of 60.2K is estimated.
  13. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. Two weeks after the decision which saw Draghi downing the euro with his downside risks, we get a detailed report about what the Governing Council members had in front of their eyes.
  14. Services PMIs: Friday morning: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, the final figure for France at 8:50, final measure for Germany at 8:55 and the final number for the whole euro-zone at 9:00.
  15. Retail Sales: Friday, 10:00. A rise of 0.3% is on the cards.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.31 09:20

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speech and 17 pips range price movement

2017-01-31 08:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech to deliver opening remarks at a joint conference by the European Central Bank and the European Commission, in Frankfurt.

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From official report:

  • "First, let me say a few words on financial integration, which is a focal point for two of our panels today. Promoting European financial integration is – besides the primary objective of price stability – a key objective of the Eurosystem. It is essential for a well-functioning single currency. Indeed, you can see financial integration and the single currency as two sides of the same coin: one basic motivation for the single currency was to maximise the benefits of the single market for capital. Conversely, it was understood that integrated financial markets would be necessary for an effective single currency."

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EUR/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.03 16:42

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Dollar Index and S&P 500: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-02-03 13:30 GMT | [USD -Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD -Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report:

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, and financial activities."

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EUR/USD M5: 72 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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S&P 500 M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.04 09:21

EUR/USD W1: bearish ranging within 1.08/1.03 levels (based on the article)

Weekly price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within 1.0873 resistance level and 1.0324 support level.

If the price breaks 1.0873 resistance to above on weekly close bar so the secondary rally will be started.
If the price breaks 1.0324 support level so the primary ebarish trend will be resumed.
if not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.



"Last was the smallest non-holiday weekly range since September 2012. This week was an outside week (although didn’t close on the highs). The current dynamic is the exact opposite of what happened in September 2012. Price wise, EUR/USD is fighting against 1.0820/50, which was support in 2015 and 2016. It’s a big level but consider upside as long as above this week’s low due to the mentioned small range, outside week dynamic. If this week’s low is taken out then I’d still watch for support near 1.0462-1.0539 (2015 lows)."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.04 12:35

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, February 05 - February 12 (based on the article)

EUR/USD enjoyed the weakness of the dollar and some good European data to rise. Can this continue? Industrial output data stands out in the first full week of February. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. German Factory Orders: Monday, 7:00. A rise of 0.6% is on the cards.
  2. Retail PMI: Monday, 9:10. It hit 50.4 points in December.
  3. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. A small slide to 16.7 is predicted.
  4. German Industrial Production: Tuesday, 7:00. A more moderate advance of 0.2% is projected.
  5. French Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:45. A narrower deficit of 4.2 billion is predicted.
  6. EU Economic Forecasts: Wednesday, delayed from the previous week. The European Commission releases these updated forecasts every six months or so. Given recent data, they may upgrade their projections for 2017 and 2018.
  7. German Trade Balance: Thursday, 7:00. A similar number is on the cards now: 23.2 billion.
  8. French Industrial Production: Friday, 7:45. The second-largest economy in the euro-zone saw a bump up in output, 2.2% in November.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.06 18:52

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speech and 34 pips range price movement

2017-02-06 14:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech on monetary policy before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, in Brussels.

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From official report:

  • "Our monetary policy strategy prescribes that we should not react to individual data points and short-lived increases in inflation."
  • "We therefore continue to look through changes in (harmonized) inflation if we believe they do not durably affect the medium-term outlook for price stability."
  • "But support from our monetary policy measures is still needed if inflation rates are to converge towards our objective with sufficient confidence and in a sustained manner. The pickup in headline inflation in December and in January largely reflects sizeable upward base effects and recent increases in energy prices. So far underlying inflation pressures remain very subdued and are expected to pick up only gradually as we go on. This lack of momentum in underlying inflation reflects largely weak domestic cost pressures. The still significant degree of labour market slack and weak productivity developments are weighing down on wage growth."

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EUR/USD M5: 34 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.07 10:08

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: French Trade Balance and 29 pips range price movement

2017-02-07 07:45 GMT | [EUR - French Trade Balance]

  • past data is -4.4B
  • forecast data is -4.2B
  • actual data is -3.4B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - French Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From rttnews article: French Current Account Deficit Narrows In December

  • "The current account deficit fell to EUR 1.1 billion in December from EUR 2.8 billion in the previous month."
  • "The goods trade deficit narrowed to EUR 0.9 billion in December from EUR 2.6 billion in November. Meanwhile, services trade balance turned to a surplus of EUR 0.1 billion from a balanced figure in the prior month."

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EUR/USD M5: 29 pips range price movement by French Trade Balance news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.08 07:51

Technical Intra-Day Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: ranging waiting for direction.

H4 price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area and near and above 200 SMA in the ranging area of the chart: the price is testing 1.0655 support level to below for 1.0620 level as the nearest target for the bearish reversal. By the way, UOB is evaluating the trend for this pair as a neutral with 1.0700/1.0615 range:

"The ease of which the strong 1.0700 support was taken out came as a surprise (low has been 1.0653). EUR has likely made a short-term top at 1.0825/30 last week and the current pull-back from the high appears to have room to extend lower towards 1.0615, possibly extending to 1.0575. At this stage, a sustained move below 1.0575 seems unlikely. Resistance is at 1.0735 but only a move back above 1.0760 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased."

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging trend to be continuing in the near future.  

  • If the price will break 1.0700 resistance level on close H4 bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If price will break 1.0620 support on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from ranging bullish to the primary ebarish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


Resistance
Support
1.07001.0655
N/A
1.0620
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0620 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0700 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.11 08:53

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, February 12 - February 19 (based on the article)



EUR/USD was unable to take advantage of the greenback’s weakness and suffered trouble of its own. GDP numbers stand out and also the ECB meeting minutes should be watched.
  1. German GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. An accelerated level of growth is expected for Q4, in line with other European countries that have already published their inflation figures.
  2. German CPI (final): Tuesday, 7:00.
  3. Italian GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. The data for Q4 could be positive.
  4. Flash GDP: Tuesday,10:00.
  5. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. The all-European number stood at 23.2 points.
  6. Industrial Production: Tuesday, 10:00. The data for December will probably be negative due to Germany’s poor performance.
  7. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 10:00.
  8. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 12:30. Four weeks after the European Central Bank stuck to its dovish tone, the minutes from the meeting are released. It will be interesting to see whether some members were opposed to dismissing the recent rise in inflation as only energy-based or if some of the German members wanted to express a more upbeat tone.
  9. Current Account: Friday, 9:00. A surplus of 36.1 billion was seen in November.

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