Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for USD/CAD - page 2

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.16 14:58

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD, and Dollar Index: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2017-02-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

==========

From official report:

  • "The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased from a reading of 23.6 in January to 43.3 this month and has remained positive for seven consecutive months."

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EUR/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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USD/CAD M5: 12 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.20 17:47

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Wholesale Trade and range price movement

2017-02-20 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Wholesale Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Wholesale Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the wholesale level.

==========

From official report:

  • "Wholesale sales rose 0.7% to $57.3 billion in December, a third consecutive gain. Six of the seven subsectors, representing 82% of total wholesale sales, reported increases. The machinery, equipment and supplies subsector and the building material and supplies subsector contributed the most to the advance."
  • "In volume terms, wholesale sales were up 0.9%."

==========

USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Wholesale Trade news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.22 16:44

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Retail Sales and 42 pips range price movement

2017-02-22 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Retail Sales] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report:

  • "Following four consecutive monthly increases, retail sales decreased 0.5% in December. Declines were widespread as lower sales were reported in 9 of 11 subsectors, representing 82% of retail trade."
  • "After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms decreased 1.0%."

==========

USD/CAD M5: 42 pips range price movement by Canada's Retail Sales news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.24 14:57

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and 37 pips range price movement

2017-02-24 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report:

  • "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1% on a year-over-year basis in January, following a 1.5% gain in December."
  • "Excluding gasoline, the CPI was up 1.5% year over year in January, after posting a 1.4% increase in December."

==========

USD/CAD M5: 37 pips range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.28 09:07

Quick Technical Overview - USD/CAD: trading to be within 100-daySMA/200-SMA ranging area waiting for the direction of the trend to be started (adapted from the article)

D1 price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA levels for the ranging market condition:

  • The price is ranging between 1.3055 support and 1.3334 resistance levels
  • Ascending triangle price pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be resumed.
  • "We’ve seen Canadian Dollar strength that is backed by much of the Commodity run and subsequent USD weakness since the Fed hiked in December. However, February has been a sideways affair."
  • "I’m awaiting a price breakdown and close below the support levels of 1.3083/76 to validate the view. However, we do see a lot of support at 1.3000 as the price continues to hold up above 1.3000 or find bids. Regarding resistance, the price has had a difficult time breaking above the twin forms of resistance of the 200-DMA at 1.3148 and the Fibonacci Zone that currently rests at 1.32274/31285."

If the price breaks 1.3055 support level on close D1 bar so the price will be reversed back to the primary bearish condition and with 1.3008 nearest target to re-enter.
If price breaks 1.3334 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 1.3460 daily bullish target.
If not so the price will be ranging within levels for direction.

Resistance
Support
1.33341.3055
1.33341.3008


Trend: ranging


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.01 16:49

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOC Overnight Rate and 459 pips range price movement 

2017-03-01 15:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

  • past data is 0.50%
  • forecast data is 0.50%
  • actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

==========

From official report:

  • "The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent."
  • "The Bank’s Governing Council remains attentive to the impact of significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook and continues to monitor risks outlined in the January MPR. In this context, Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate and maintains the target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent."

==========

USD/CAD M5: 59 pips range price movement by BOC Overnight Rate news event


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.02 15:33

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 35 pips range price movement 

2017-03-02 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report:

  • "Real GDP rose 1.4% in 2016, following more modest growth in 2015 (+0.9%). Final domestic demand grew 0.9%, following a 0.3% increase the previous year. Driven by household consumption expenditure, much of this growth occurred in the first two quarters with a deceleration towards the end of the year. Household consumption expenditure grew 2.2% following a 1.9% gain in 2015. Outlays on both goods (+2.7%) and services (+1.9%) rose."
  • "Expressed at an annualized rate, real GDP rose 2.6% in the fourth quarter. In comparison, real GDP in the United States grew 1.9%."

==========

USD/CAD M5: 35 pips range price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.11 10:06

Weekly Outlook: 2017, March 12 - March 19 (based on the article)

The US dollar ended the week on the back foot despite the upcoming rate hike. Apart from the Fed decision, we have rate decisions also in the UK and Japan, US consumer confidence and housing data, and lots more. These are the main events on forex calendar for this week.


    1. US Producer Prices: Tuesday, 12:30. Producer prices are expected to rise 0.1% this time.
    2. UK jobs report: Wednesday, 9:30. The number of new unemployed in the UK is expected to rise by 3,200 in February.
    3. US Inflation data: Wednesday, 13:30. US Consumer prices are estimated to remain unchanged while core inflation is expected to gain 0.2% in February.
    4. US Retail sales: Wednesday, 13:30. Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.2% and core sales are predicted to rise 0.1%.
    5. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
    6. US FOMC Economic Projections and rate decision: Wednesday, 18:00. The FOMC sees three rate hikes in 2017, instead of the two from September’s projections. But beyond 2017, the assessments are the same as in September. Regarding growth projections, the Fed sees a 2% rise, falling to 1.8% in the longer run. The unemployment rate is estimated to reach 4.5% between 2017 and 2019 before rising to 4.8 percent in the longer term.
    7. New Zealand GDP data: Wednesday, 21:45. Economists expect a growth rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2016.
    8. Japan rate decision: Thursday.
    9. UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The bank predicts the economy will grow 2% this year and the unemployment would be much lower than previously projected. Growth has remained resilient since the Brexit vote and policymakers expect growth to continue in the coming months.
    10. US Building Permits: Thursday, 12:30. The number of building permits is expected to reach1.26 million this time.
    11. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 12:30. Manufacturing activity in the Philly area is expected to reach 30.2 in March.
    12. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of jobless claims is expected to rise to 245,000.
    13. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00. Consumer moral is expected to increase to 97.1 this time.

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.15 09:20

    USD/CAD Ahead of FOMC (based on the article)

    Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the breakout with the bullish reversal: the price is testing resistance level at 1.3534 to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.3598 target to re-enter.


    • "The USD/CAD is trading higher this morning as the US Dollar strengthens ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision. Expectations are set to see key rates to rise to 0.75%, and traders will also be looking to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s conference to provide further direction for US Dollar based pairs."
    • "Technically, the USD/CAD is currently trading below the standing 2017 high at 1.3535. Despite the markets retracement, the pair remains supported in a short term uptrend by its 10 day EMA (exponential moving average), which is found at 1.3438. In the event that tomorrows event is US Dollar bullish, traders will look for the USD/CAD to bounce and trade back towards yearly highs. Alternatively, in the event of a selloff, the pair will first need to breach the 10 day EMA before trading towards new lower lows."


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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.18 14:30

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)


    USD/CAD"Meanwhile, the main economic event in Canada in the week ahead is the Federal budget but that is unlikely toinclude any major tax reforms or additional stimulus measures above and beyondthoseannounced in last year’s budget. The economy is growing at a respectable pace, with GDP expected to expand by around 1.8% annualized in the first quarter. Yet the Bank of Canada is unlikely to turn hawkish while the shadow of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies hang over it."


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