AUDUSD Technical Analysis 15.09 - 29.09 : Bullish Ranging
The price is inside Ichimoku cloud for D1 timeframe which is indicating the ranging market condition. The could is wide enough (259 pips, or 2590 points in case of 5 digit broker) so we are expecting the ranging market condition to be continued.
The price broke Sinkou Span B line (which is one of the border of the cloud) for primary bearish on D1 timeframe. But support/resistance levels based on the bordres of Ichimoku cloud are not strong enoigh so the situation may be changed to primary bullish in any time.
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Learn Ichimoku :
The trend is deemed to be bearish when the Senkou Span A is below the Senkou Span B and bullish when it is above . By the way - I will open separated thread about this indicator as I promissed)
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If
the price will cross 0.9354 resistance so the primary bullish will be continuing (the trade will be reversed from bearish ranging to primary bullish).
If the price will break 0.9056 support level from above to below so we will be primary bearish which may be good to open sell trades for example.
Anything between those levels may be considered as a bearish reanging market condition.
- Recommendation for long: watch the price for crossing 0.9354 resistance (it is very likely)
- Recommendation
to go short: watch the price for breaking 0.9056 support level
- Trading Summary: bearish ranging
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2013-09-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]
2013-09-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - New Motor Vehicle Sales]
2013-09-18 00:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Leading Index]
2013-09-18 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Gov Speaking]
Please note : some US high impacted news events are also affected on AUDUSD movement
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 0.9270 | 0.9223 |
| 0.9280 | 0.9115 |
| 0.9354 | 0.9056 |
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : ranging
Intraday Chart
Thanks for this insight: One strategy is to trade at the price crossing the trend line. The orange trend line on the daily chart. Sell to support on the price crossing the up trend line, and do the opposite from support to resistance.
Thanks for this insight: One strategy is to trade at the price crossing the trend line. The orange trend line on the daily chart. Sell to support on the price crossing the up trend line, and do the opposite from support to resistance.
- www.mql5.com
New D1 bar was opened above Ichimoku cloud. if this tendency will be remain so we can see primary bullish to be continuing.
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audusd - new daily bar was opened above Sinkou Span B line (above Ichimoku cloud)
I will open separated thread about this indicator as I promissed)
thank you.
waiting....
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AUDUSD M5 : price movement during AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
newdigital, 2013.09.17 10:15
2013-09-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]
- past data is n/a
- forecast data is n/a
- actual data is n/a according to the latest press release
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RBA Minutes: Bank Doesn't Rule Out Further Easing
Members of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy board would not call it imminent, but they would not rule out the possibility of further easing, minutes from the bank's September meeting revealed on Tuesday.
The board members felt that it was important to be able to take further steps, should they become necessary, the minutes showed - particularly since the Australian economy has continued to grow slightly below trend.
"Members agreed that the bank should again neither close off the possibility of reducing rates further nor signal an imminent intention to reduce them. The board would continue to examine the data over the months ahead to assess whether monetary policy was appropriately configured," the minutes said.
At the meeting, the board decided to keep the benchmark cash rate unchanged at a record-low of 2.5 percent on Tuesday, with a possible depreciation of the currency expected to facilitate rebalancing of the economy.
The RBA has reduced the cash rate by a cumulative 225 basis points since November 2011 on the premise that accommodative policy is needed to support demand in areas outside the resources sector, as the peak in mining investment approaches.
The easing in monetary policy since late 2011 has supported interest-sensitive spending and asset values, and further effects can be expected over time, the bank said.
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17 pips movement by AUD Leading Index
newdigital, 2013.09.18 11:34
2013-09-18 00:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Leading Index]
- past data is -1.1%
- forecast data is n/a
- actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
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Australia July Leading Index Improves
The Conference Board's Leading Index for Australia rose 0.3 percent for July.
The Board also reported Wednesday that its Coincident Index declined 0.2 percent for July.
The Board also downwardly revised its small June decline to a larger one of 1.1 percent.
The Board said five of the seven components comprising the Leading Index increased in July. Building Approvals and gross operating surplus were the decliners.
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audusd - USD intrerest rate
newdigital, 2013.09.18 21:05
2013-09-18 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time| [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
- past data is 0.25%
- forecast data is 0.25%
- actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release
actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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For immediate release
nformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
July suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate
pace. Some indicators of labor market conditions have shown further
improvement in recent months, but the unemployment rate remains
elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and
the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have
risen further and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Apart
from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been
running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term
inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall, but the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.
Just about patterns ...
This is AUDUSD Weekly, Crab pattern for uptrend
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AUDUSD Weekly, Crab pattern for uptrend
AUDUSD H8, Butterfly for downtrend (forming pattern)
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AUDUSD H8, Butterfly for downtrend (forming pattern)
M30 Retrecement formed/finished/developed pattern (downtrend):
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M30 Retrecement formed/finished/developed pattern (downtrend)
M30 retrecement forming/developing pattern for uptrend :
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M30 retrecement forming/developing pattern for uptrend
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35 pips movement on CNY - HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
newdigital, 2013.09.23 07:57
2013-09-23 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time| [CNY - HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI]
- past data is 50.1
- forecast data is 50.9
- actual data is 51.2 according to the latest press release
actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
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China's Manufacturing Growth At 6-Month HighAn indicator of China's factory sector performance rose to its highest level in six months in September as new export orders rebounded, preliminary results of a survey by Markit Economics and HSBC revealed Monday.
The headline purchasing managers' index rose to a six-month high of 51.2 in September from 50.1 in August. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector.
The survey adds further evidence to China's ongoing growth rebound, HSBC chief economist Hongbin Qu said. "The firmer footing was supported by simultaneous improvements of external and domestic demand conditions," the economist said.
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The price crossed Ichimoku cloud for primary bullish on D1 timeframe and it was stopped by 0.9528 resistance level.
We are expecting for the price to be floating betweem 0.9528 resistance and 0.9217 support levels for ranging market condition as a secondary trend within bullish primary
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2013-09-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]
2013-09-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - New Motor Vehicle Sales]
2013-09-18 00:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Leading Index]
2013-09-18 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Gov Speaking]
2013-09-25 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Financial Stability review]
Please note : some US high impacted news events are also affected on AUDUSD movement
SUMMARY : bullish
TREND : ranging
Intraday Chart