D1 price is on bullish market condition stopped by 0.9437 resistance for the bullish to be continuing.
H4 price is on
bullish ranging between 0.9374 support and 0.9437 resistance levels..
is on breakout:
D1 price will break 0.9437 resistance level so the primary bullish will be continuing.If not so we may see the ranging market condition or correction within bullish.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-06-16 03:20 GMT (or 05:20 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Assist Gov Kent Speech]
2014-06-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Meeting Minutes]
2014-06-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - New Motor Vehicle Sales]
2014-06-17 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Foreign Direct Investment]
2014-06-17 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Building Permits]
2014-06-17 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]
2014-06-17 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech]
2014-06-18 00:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - CB Leading Index]
2014-06-18 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
2014-06-19 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Bulletin]
2014-06-19 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on AUDUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bullish
TREND : ranging
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.06.15 17:18
newdigital, 2014.06.13 21:41
newdigital, 2014.06.16 10:10
Unemployment Rate To Remain Elevated In Coming Years - RBA's Kent
Labour demand has improved over the recent months after the slowdown
in labour demand and supply in the recent past, although the jobless
rate is expected to remain elevated in the coming years, Christopher
Kent, Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said on
Monday in his address on Labour Market Developments.
previous year, demand for labour was affected by the decline in mining
investment, decline in trade, high level of exchange rates and weak
growth of public demand.
The labour supply was affected as a
consequence of a discouraging effect from the decline in demand and also
due to ageing population, he said.
Kent noted that wages declined steadily due to the labour demand-supply weakness.
decline in wage growth has contributed, at the margins, to a turnaround
in the real exchange rate and helped cushion the effect of slower
growth of domestic demand on employment growth. It has also helped to
contain domestic cost pressures thereby offsetting the effect of the
lower exchange rate on consumer prices" Kent said.
noting that the demand for labour has improved over recent months, with
some of that reflecting a 'catch-up' after a period of weak employment
growth last year, Kent said some forward-looking indicators are higher
than they have been, though they are still at levels consistent with
only moderate employment growth in the next few months. The Assistant
Governor added that the central bank's latest forecasts are for
employment growth to pick up gradually over the next two years.
unemployment rate, though forecast to remain high in the upcoming
years, is expected to decline later in 2015 when GDP growth is expected
to pick up, he added.
newdigital, 2014.06.14 16:07
AUDUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
The Australian Dollar managed a strong showing last week, rising to a
two-month high just below the 0.95 figure against its US counterpart.
The advance tracked an improvement in monetary policy expectations,
with a Credit Suisse gauge tracking the priced-in 12 month outlook
rising to the highest level since mid-May. High-profile event risk on
the domestic and the external fronts in the week ahead threatens to
undermine the rally however.
The spotlight initially falls on minutes from June’s RBA policy meeting. The policy announcement struck a familiar tone,
arguing for a period of stability in interest rates. With that in
mind, traders will look to the text of the minutes for added color,
attempting to gauge how long the standstill is likely to last and the
direction that policy is likely to take thereafter.
Minutes from a likewise status-quo flat rate decision in May proved telling,
revealing a dovish lean in the Bank’s posture and sending the Aussie
lower. Australian economic data dramatically deteriorated relative to
expectations between the May and June meetings (according to data from
Citigroup), warning that a similar dynamic may play out again.
Later in the week, the focus returns to the Federal Reserve the rate-setting FOMC committee convenes for its policy meeting.
This outing takes on particular significance in that it will be
accompanied by the release of an updated set of policymakers’ economic
forecasts as well as a press conference from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. As
we’ve discussed previously, the fate of the Fed’s effort to
“taper” QE asset purchases with an eye to end the program this year –
paving the way for interest rate hikes – has been a formative catalyst
for the markets this year.
US economic news-flow has broadly improved relative to consensus
forecasts since early April but a string of disappointing releases over
the past three weeks have rekindled doubts about the strength of the
recovery from a dismal performance in the first quarter.
Indeed, the US Dollar has come under renewed selling pressure as traders
scaled back bets on swift Fed policy normalization, putting the
greenback’s multi-year uptrend in jeopardy. For their part, FOMC
officials have adamantly maintained that the first quarter was a
hiccup in an otherwise supportive environment. If that sentiment is
reflected in an upgraded set of economic forecasts and/or an upbeat
Yellen presser this dynamic may be overturned, undermining the Aussie’s
perceived yield advantage and sending it lower anew.
newdigital, 2014.06.17 08:30
[AUD - RBA Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent
meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that
influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.
RBA Minutes: Policy Stance Continues To Be Appropriate
Members of the monetary policy board of the Reserve Bank of
Australia felt that the current level of stimulus in the Australian economy continues to be appropriate, minutes from the central bank's June 3 meeting revealed on Tuesday.
board members also said that economic growth is expected to remain
slightly below trend, while inflation figures to remain within the
target range of 2 to 3 percent.
"Global and domestic economic
conditions overall were little changed from the previous meeting. Growth
of Australia's major trading partners remained consistent with the
earlier outlook, with growth early in 2014 around its long-run average,"
the minutes said.
At the meeting, the board kept the nation's
benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50 percent, in line with
expectations; the rate has been unchanged since last August.
RBA has reduced the cash rate by a cumulative 225 basis points since
November 2011 to help the economy sustain the economic growth in view of
fading support from the mining boom.
"The expectation of
substantial falls in mining investment, below-average growth of public
demand and non-mining investment remaining subdued for a time implied
that the pace of growth was likely to be a little below trend over the
rest of this year and into the next, before gradually increasing," the
The government estimates real GDP to continue
growing below trend at 2.5 percent in 2014-15, before accelerating to
near-trend growth of 3 percent in 2015-16.
The board said
continued accommodative monetary policy should provide support to
demand, and help growth to strengthen over time.
In the board's
judgment, monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster
sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the
the currency, the bank said the exchange rate remains high by
historical standards, particularly given the further decline in
"Given this outlook for the economy and the
significant degree of monetary stimulus already in place to support
economic activity, the Board judged that the current accommodative
stance of policy was likely to be appropriate for some time yet," the
Also on Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics
said that the total number of new motor vehicle sales in Australia was
up a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent on month in May, standing at
92,410. That follows the flat reading in April.
By category, sales
of other vehicles climbed 3.4 percent on month and sales of sports
utility vehicles jumped 1.8 percent, while sales of passenger vehicles
fell 2.0 percent.
By region, Victoria saw the largest increase
(3.5 percent) followed by South Australia (1.3 percent) and the
Australian Capital Territory (0.8 percent). The Northern Territory had
the largest decline in sales (19.2 percent) followed by Queensland and
Tasmania with 2.1 percent each.
On a yearly basis, sales declined 2.0 percent after falling 1.9 percent in the previous month.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.06.17
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AUDUSD M5 : 22 pips price movement by AUD - RBA Meeting Minutes news event
newdigital, 2014.06.17 15:00
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation
is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the
central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation
U.S. Consumer Prices Rise More Than Expected In May
Consumer prices rose by more than expected in the month of May,
according to a report released by the Labor Department on Tuesday, with
the increase reflecting broad-based price growth.
Department said its consumer price index rose by 0.4 percent in May
after climbing by 0.3 percent in April. Economists had expected the
index to edge up by about 0.2 percent.
Core consumer prices, which
exclude food and energy prices, increased by 0.3 percent in May after
rising by 0.2 percent in the previous month. Core prices had also been
expected to tick up by 0.2 percent.
AUDUSD M5 : 30 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event
newdigital, 2014.06.15 17:22
newdigital, 2014.06.18 08:07
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - CB Leading Index] = Change in the level of a composite index based on 7 economic indicators. This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it
tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the
calculation are released previously
Australia Leading Index Dips 0.1% In May - Conference Board
A leading economic index for Australia eased 0.1 percent in April,
the latest survey from the Conference Board revealed on Wednesday.
headline figure follows the upwardly revised 0.2 percent increase in
March (originally flat) and the 0.5 percent gain in February.
the individual components of the survey, building approvals and rural
good exports were down, while the sales to inventories ratio, yield
spread, money supply, gross operating surplus and share prices all were
The Conference Board LEI for Australia has been on an
upward trend since the middle of 2009, although its six-month growth
rate has moderated in recent months.
The six-month growth rate of
the leading economic index was 2.5 percent (about a 5.0 percent annual
rate) from October 2013 to April 2014, higher than its growth of 1.1
percent (about a 2.3 percent annual rate) for the previous six months.
The strengths among the leading indicators still outweigh the
weaknesses, the board said, with six out of seven components advancing
over the past six months.
The coincident index added 0.2 percent
in April following the revised 0.3 percent gain in March and the 0.4
percent increase in February.
four of its components continued to advance over the last six months.
With April's gain, the coincident economic index grew by 1.6 percent
(about a 3.3 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through April
2014 - significantly higher than the 0.2 percent (about a 0.5 percent
annual rate) in the previous six months.
Meanwhile, real GDP
increased at a 4.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2014, an
improvement from 3.2 percent (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of
Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic expansion will continue in the near term.
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.06.18
AUDUSD M5 : 6 pips price movement by AUD - CB Leading Index news event
newdigital, 2014.06.18 14:29
Trading the News: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting and Federal Funds Rate (based on dailyfx article)
Despite expectations for another $10B reduction in the Federal Open
Market Committee’s (FOMC) asset-purchase program, the central bank’s
updated forecasts (growth, inflation & interest rate) may have a
greater impact in driving the U.S. dollar as market participants weigh
the outlook for monetary policy.
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, there’s limited scope of seeing a material shift in the Fed’s
policy outlook as Chair Janet Yellen remains reluctant to normalize
monetary policy, and the interest rate decision may spur a bearish
dollar reaction (bullish EUR/USD) should we get more of the same from
the central bank.Sticky inflation paired with the ongoing improvement in the labor market
may encourage the FOMC to soft its dovish tone for monetary policy, and
the fresh developments coming out of the central bank may generate a bullish outlook for the dollar should we see a greater dissent within the committee.However, the slowdown in the housing market along with the dismal 1Q GDP
reading may push the FOMC to lower its fundamental projections for the
U.S. economy, and the updated forecasts may heighten the bearish
sentiment surrounding the greenback should the calculations drag on
interest rate expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: FOMC Cuts Another $10B & Shows Greater Willingness to Normalize
AUDUSD M5 : 43 pips range price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event:
newdigital, 2014.06.19 11:14
AUD/USD edges higher after Fed statement (based on investing article)
The Australian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on
Thursday, as demand for the greenback weakened after the Federal Reserve
indicated that interest rates will remain low for a considerable time
after the bank’s asset purchase program ends.
hit 0.9419 during late Asian trade, the pair's highest since June 13;
the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9423, adding 0.19%.
The pair was likely to find support at 0.9323, Wednesday's low and resistance at 0.9461, the high of April 10.
the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, the Fed cut its
bond purchases by another $10 billion a month, to $35 billion, saying
there was "sufficient underlying strength" in the U.S. economy to
Despite this, the Fed also lowered its forecast
for growth this year to a range of 2.1% to 2.3% from 2.8 to 3.0%
previously, due to "unexpected contractions" in the first quarter as a
result of the unusually harsh winter. The central bank still
acknowledged a broad improvement in the labor market.
The Fed said
it expects the federal-funds rate, currently close to zero, to reach
1.2% by the end of next year and 2.5% by the end of 2016, a slightly
faster rate of tightening than formerly expected.
The Aussie was higher against the New Zealand dollar, with AUD/NZD rising 0.26% to 1.0799.
Thursday, official data showed that New Zealand's gross domestic
product rose by 1% in the first quarter, compared to expectations for an
expansion of 1.2%. For the fourth quarter of 2013, New Zealand's GDP
was revised up to an expansion of 1% from a previously estimated growth
rate of 0.9%.
Later in the day, the U.S. was to publish the weekly
report on initial jobless claims as well as a report on manufacturing
activity in the Philadelphia region.