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USDJPY Technical Analysis 29.09 - 06.10 : Correction

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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99169
Sergey Golubev  

Chinkou Span line is crossing historical price on open bar for D1 timeframe but the price is still above Ichimoku cloud which is indicating possible secondary correction within primary bullish market condition.

If the price will break 97.76 support level so we will see the reversal of the trend from primary bullish to bearish, otherwise the ranging market condition will be continuing

  • Recommendation for long: n/a
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price for breaking 97.76 support level from above to below for reversal to bearish
  • Trading Summary: possible correction

UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on USDJPY price movement for this coming week)

2013-09-29 23:50 GMT (or 01:50 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - Retail Sales]

2013-09-30 05:00 GMT (or 07:00 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - Housing Starts]

2013-09-30 23:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - Unemployment Rate]

2013-09-30 23:50 GMT (or 01:50 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - Tankan Manufacturing Index]

2013-10-01 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - Average Cash Earnings]

2013-10-11 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change (Non-farm Payrolls)]

Please note : some US high impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on USDJPY movement

 ResistanceSupport
99.03
98.17
99.13
98.09
99.66
97.76




SUMMARY
: bullish

TREND : correction


Intraday Chart



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99169
Sergey Golubev  

This is breakdown for this pair :

Chinkou Span line crossed historical price from above to below on close bar

The price is trying to break 97.76 support level - if it happens so it may be good long term sell (goor for sell)

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USDJPY, D1, 2013.09.30

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USDJPY breakdown

USDJPY, D1, 2013.09.30, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo




Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99169
Sergey Golubev  

The situation was slightly changed :

  • there is flat on D1; and
  • it is the ranging market condition for H4

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USDJPY, D1, 2013.10.01

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USDJPY D1 - flat

USDJPY, D1, 2013.10.01, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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USDJPY, H4, 2013.10.01

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USDJPY H4 - ranging

USDJPY, H4, 2013.10.01, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99169
Sergey Golubev  

I am having the feeling that the market/price is moving irrespective off any fundamental news for the second day. Just an example with USDJPY for now :

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USDJPY, M5, 2013.10.01

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USDJPY - EUR Unemployment Rate

USDJPY, M5, 2013.10.01, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99169
Sergey Golubev  

It was the following news event :

2013-10-01 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time| [EUR - Unemployment Rate]

if actual < forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

==========

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99169
Sergey Golubev  

Well ... I found - it was a speech related to Japan only :

===============

Abe Opts For Sales Tax-Hike; Stimulus Planned To Soften Impact On Economy


Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Tuesday that he will hike the sales tax as planned from April next year to reduce the country's huge debt load. The government is also set to announce a stimulus package to cushion the potential negative impact that the tax hike could have on the nascent recovery of the economy.

The government will increase the consumption tax to 8 percent from April 2014 from the current 5 percent, Abe said at the beginning of a meeting with the ruling coalition. The tax hike is the first such move since 1997.

An official announcement on the sale tax decision and the planned stimulus package is expected later today. Abe will endorse a planned second-stage hike to 10 percent in October 2015 once the first-stage increase proves to be effective.

At around 230 percent of gross domestic product, Japan's has the largest debt pile among advanced economies.

Since assuming power in December last year, Abe has brought in radical policy overhaul, often dubbed Abenomics, to get the economy out of its deflation trap, that has been a drag on the nation's growth for the past 15 years.

Recent indicators have suggested that Abenomics is having a positive impact. Abenomics proposes a "three arrow" strategy comprising monetary policy, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms.

Abe Opts For Sales Tax-Hike; Stimulus Planned To Soften Impact On Economy
Abe Opts For Sales Tax-Hike; Stimulus Planned To Soften Impact On Economy
  • www.rttnews.com
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Tuesday that he will hike the sales tax as planned from April next year to reduce the country's huge debt load. The government is also set to announce a stimulus package to cushion the potential negative impact that the tax hike could have on the nascent recovery of the . The government will increase the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99169
Sergey Golubev  

It seems - the other crossing of Chinkou Span and historical price is going on right now on D1 timeframe. By the way - 97.76 support level was broken and I am in profit with 21 pips for now :

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USDJPY, D1, 2013.10.02

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USDJPY D1 - the other Chinkou Span/historical price crossing

USDJPY, D1, 2013.10.02, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99169
Sergey Golubev  

Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.10.02 16:14

2013-09-18 22:45 GMT (or 00:45 MQ MT5 time| [USD - ADP Employment Change]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Falls Short Of Estimates In September

In a report that may take on increased importance due to the likely delay of the government report, payroll processor ADP released a report on Wednesday showing that private sector employment in the U.S. increased by somewhat less than expected in the month of September.

ADP said the private sector added 166,000 jobs in September compared to a downwardly revised increase of 159,000 jobs in August.

Economists had expected private sector employment to increase by about 180,000 jobs compared to the addition of 176,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

With the government shutdown likely delaying the release of the Labor Department's monthly jobs report, Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, said, "This means the ADP report might be our best guide to actual job growth in the month,

"Its track record is far from perfect, but the picture it paints is one of still-lackluster job creation," he added. "Business sentiment weakened ahead of the government shutdown, and a prolonged closure or payments default later this month would only sour the mood further."

ADP said service-providing industries added 147,000 jobs in September compared to the addition of 152,000 jobs in August.


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USDJPY, M5, 2013.10.02

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37 pips price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

USDJPY, M5, 2013.10.02, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99169
Sergey Golubev  

This is not already correction (because the correction is secondary trend within primary bullish). This is real primary bearish going on right now on D1 timeframe with nearest support level as 97.14

And I am in profit with +41 pips (4 digit pips) for now (the trade is still open - we can see it on the image below).

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USDJPY, D1, 2013.10.03

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USDJPY D1 - bearish

USDJPY, D1, 2013.10.03, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


graziani
2052
graziani  
on daily graph, for last 4 months we actually have a correction, a triangle, both by pattern and EWT criterias, which suggests further growth towards 104-110-120 zone.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99169
Sergey Golubev  

Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.10.04 11:28

2013-10-04 02:49 GMT (or 04:49 MQ MT5 time| [JPY - Interest Rate]

==========

BoJ Holds Monetary Policy Steady



The Bank of Japan on Friday decided to hold its monetary easing plan unchanged while also maintaining its economic assessment.

At the end of a two-day meeting of the nine-member Policy Board led by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the central bank said it will keep the target for the monetary base expansion at an annual pace of JPY 60-70 trillion.

Additionally, with respect to its asset purchase program, the BOJ said it will continue to increase its purchases of Japanese government bonds at an annual pace of about JPY 50 trillion. The average remaining maturity of the bank's JGB buying will be around seven years.

The Board's decision to refrain from any fresh policy moves was in line with expectations.

"Japan's economy is recovering moderately," the central bank said while maintaining its assessment after an upgrade in September. It also noted that the year-on-year change in the core consumer price index is now in the range of 0.5-1 percent.

Meanwhile, the BoJ revised up its view on capital expenditure, saying "business fixed investment has been picking up as corporate profits have improved." Business sentiment has continued to improve, it added.

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USDJPY, M5, 2013.10.04

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JPY Interest Rate

USDJPY, M5, 2013.10.04, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



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