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AUDUSD Technical Analysis 15.09 - 29.09 : Bullish Ranging

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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93667
Sergey Golubev 2013.09.15 13:37 

The price crossed Ichimoku cloud for primary bullish on D1 timeframe and it was stopped by 0.9528 resistance level.

We are expecting for the price to be floating betweem 0.9528 resistance and 0.9217 support levels for ranging market condition as a secondary trend within bullish primary

  • Recommendation for long: watch the price for crossing 0.9528 resistance for bullish continuing
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price for breaking 0.9217 support level from above to below for reversal
  • Trade inside support/resistance horizontal channel (trading the ranging market condition)
  • Trading Summary: bullish ranging

UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for this coming week)

2013-09-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

2013-09-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - New Motor Vehicle Sales]

2013-09-18 00:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Leading Index]

2013-09-18 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Gov Speaking]

2013-09-25 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Financial Stability review]

Please note : some US high impacted news events are also affected on AUDUSD movement

 ResistanceSupport
0.9517
0.9427
0.9524
0.9223
0.9528
0.9217




SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging


Intraday Chart


Ken McCormick
789
Ken McCormick 2013.09.15 15:00  
newdigital:

The price is inside Ichimoku cloud for D1 timeframe which is indicating the ranging market condition. The could is wide enough (259 pips, or 2590 points in case of 5 digit broker) so we are expecting the ranging market condition to be continued.

The price broke Sinkou Span B line (which is one of the border of the cloud) for primary bearish on D1 timeframe. But support/resistance levels based on the bordres of Ichimoku cloud are not strong enoigh so the situation may be changed to primary bullish in any time.

==========

Learn Ichimoku :

The trend is deemed to be bearish when the Senkou Span A is below the Senkou Span B and bullish when it is above . By the way - I will open separated thread about this indicator as I promissed)

==========

If the price will cross 0.9354 resistance so the primary bullish will be continuing (the trade will be reversed from bearish ranging to primary bullish).

If the price will break 0.9056 support level from above to below so we will be primary bearish which may be good to open sell trades for example.

Anything between those levels may be considered as a bearish reanging market condition.

  • Recommendation for long: watch the price for crossing 0.9354 resistance (it is very likely)
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price for breaking 0.9056 support level
  • Trading Summary: bearish ranging

UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for this coming week)

2013-09-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

2013-09-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - New Motor Vehicle Sales]

2013-09-18 00:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Leading Index]

2013-09-18 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Gov Speaking]

Please note : some US high impacted news events are also affected on AUDUSD movement

 ResistanceSupport
0.9270
0.9223
0.9280
0.9115
0.9354
0.9056




SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging


Intraday Chart


Thanks for this insight: One strategy is to trade at the price crossing the trend line. The orange trend line on the daily chart. Sell to support on the price crossing the up trend line, and do the opposite from support to resistance.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93667
Sergey Golubev 2013.09.15 15:46  
KenMcCormick:

Thanks for this insight: One strategy is to trade at the price crossing the trend line. The orange trend line on the daily chart. Sell to support on the price crossing the up trend line, and do the opposite from support to resistance.

Sell limit order? Yes, it is usually used by traders in stock market. But I am using sell stop/buy stop (mostly used in forex for example).
Documentation on MQL5: Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Trade Constants / Order Properties
Documentation on MQL5: Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Trade Constants / Order Properties
  • www.mql5.com
Standard Constants, Enumerations and Structures / Trade Constants / Order Properties - Documentation on MQL5
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93667
Sergey Golubev 2013.09.16 16:49  

New D1 bar was opened above Ichimoku cloud. if this tendency will be remain so we can see primary bullish to be continuing.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, D1, 2013.09.16

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audusd - new daily bar was opened above Sinkou Span B line (above Ichimoku cloud)

AUDUSD, D1, 2013.09.16, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Mehrdad Shiri
4481
Mehrdad Shiri 2013.09.16 17:01  
newdigital:
I will open separated thread about this indicator as I promissed)

thank you.

waiting....

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93667
Sergey Golubev 2013.09.17 10:17  

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.09.17

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUDUSD M5 : price movement during AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.09.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.09.17 10:15

2013-09-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

==========

RBA Minutes: Bank Doesn't Rule Out Further Easing

Members of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy board would not call it imminent, but they would not rule out the possibility of further easing, minutes from the bank's September meeting revealed on Tuesday.

The board members felt that it was important to be able to take further steps, should they become necessary, the minutes showed - particularly since the Australian economy has continued to grow slightly below trend.

"Members agreed that the bank should again neither close off the possibility of reducing rates further nor signal an imminent intention to reduce them. The board would continue to examine the data over the months ahead to assess whether monetary policy was appropriately configured," the minutes said.

At the meeting, the board decided to keep the benchmark cash rate unchanged at a record-low of 2.5 percent on Tuesday, with a possible depreciation of the currency expected to facilitate rebalancing of the economy.

The RBA has reduced the cash rate by a cumulative 225 basis points since November 2011 on the premise that accommodative policy is needed to support demand in areas outside the resources sector, as the peak in mining investment approaches.

The easing in monetary policy since late 2011 has supported interest-sensitive spending and asset values, and further effects can be expected over time, the bank said.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93667
Sergey Golubev 2013.09.18 11:36  

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.09.18

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17 pips movement by AUD Leading Index

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.09.18, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.09.18 11:34

2013-09-18 00:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Leading Index]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

==========

Australia July Leading Index Improves

The Conference Board's Leading Index for Australia rose 0.3 percent for July.

The Board also reported Wednesday that its Coincident Index declined 0.2 percent for July.

The Board also downwardly revised its small June decline to a larger one of 1.1 percent.

The Board said five of the seven components comprising the Leading Index increased in July. Building Approvals and gross operating surplus were the decliners.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93667
Sergey Golubev 2013.09.18 21:08  

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.09.18

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

audusd - USD intrerest rate

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.09.18, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.09.18 21:05

2013-09-18 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time| [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

For immediate release


nformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Some indicators of labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen further and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall, but the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93667
Sergey Golubev 2013.09.20 11:53  

Just about patterns ...

This is AUDUSD Weekly, Crab pattern for uptrend

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, W1, 2013.09.20

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUDUSD Weekly, Crab pattern for uptrend

AUDUSD, W1, 2013.09.20, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



AUDUSD H8, Butterfly for downtrend (forming pattern)


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, H8, 2013.09.20

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUDUSD H8, Butterfly for downtrend (forming pattern)

AUDUSD, H8, 2013.09.20, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93667
Sergey Golubev 2013.09.20 19:35  

M30 Retrecement formed/finished/developed pattern (downtrend):

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M30, 2013.09.20

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

M30 Retrecement formed/finished/developed pattern (downtrend)

AUDUSD, M30, 2013.09.20, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



M30 retrecement forming/developing pattern for uptrend :

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M30, 2013.09.20

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

M30 retrecement forming/developing pattern for uptrend

AUDUSD, M30, 2013.09.20, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93667
Sergey Golubev 2013.09.23 07:58  

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.09.23

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

35 pips movement on CNY - HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.09.23, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.09.23 07:57

2013-09-23 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time| [CNY - HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI]

actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

==========

China's Manufacturing Growth At 6-Month High


An indicator of China's factory sector performance rose to its highest level in six months in September as new export orders rebounded, preliminary results of a survey by Markit Economics and HSBC revealed Monday.

The headline purchasing managers' index rose to a six-month high of 51.2 in September from 50.1 in August. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector.

The survey adds further evidence to China's ongoing growth rebound, HSBC chief economist Hongbin Qu said. "The firmer footing was supported by simultaneous improvements of external and domestic demand conditions," the economist said.


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