[Branch closed!] EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 4) - page 406
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Look at the daily chart. According to the D1, it appears possible to move up to 1.40
Yes, I did, but so far I stick to the plan: up to 1.4570, and then down to 1.3960
ZSY: if I could accurately predict the sequence of moves I would overtake the demo account of the leader of rodents with 100 quid ;)
By levels, SELL corners - well, this is a lure before the jump up
April 18 - there was a similar situation - lots of plums and so on - everyone was in SELL, but the puppeteer showed his dick to everyone
And so small hamsters stood in the sale, and the price goes up - this is the first signal, the overall statistics is still in the buy - but the signal that they sell the crowd hints at a trick -))))
We wait for the movement against them - I've already taken a position.
On pairs to CHF in general stop-rule! 4 synchronous returns and breakdowns -
So, as far as all the news listed is concerned - it will affect the temporary reaction of market movements...
I might also add:
on Monday (27.06.11) the expiry of July gold option contracts will be completed, after which the market pattern will change somewhat...
The Middle Kingdom's foreign exchange reserves are more than $3 trillion. Last year, China increased this figure by $450 billion.China's reserves are more than twice the size of Japan's, which with more than $1 trillion in reserves is the second largest in the world. Russia is firmly in third place in terms of international reserves.
In general, as I said before, the market will continue to move in a narrow range... The fundamental backdrop is not yet providing significant upside....
And indicators show only active sales...
Market participants continue to be pessimistic about the euro, given the risk of Greece's problems spreading to other peripheral states.
Morgan Stanley's Gabriel de Kock said he expects the euro to fall against the dollar to $1.36 by the end of the year. "It is hard to believe that the problems of the EU, particularly Greece, will be resolved any time soon," he added.
On top of that, Mr de Kock said that the fact that the ECB continues to hint at further interest rate hikes in the region in parallel will also put pressure on the euro. "We expect three more ECB rate hikes before the beginning of 2012 after which investors will prefer to take a wait-and-see attitude to see the outcome of such policies," the expert added. "This could exacerbate economic weakness and lead to a destabilisation of the financial system in the periphery."
At the time of the development of the common European currency, no one envisaged that any of the member states might ever want to leave the currency bloc, so no exit mechanism from the eurozone was created. Now, with the growing debt crisis in the region, the prospect of Greece leaving the monetary union no longer looks so absurd.
Analysts of the research centre Open Europe say that though the European politicians do not work out a plan that would regulate the procedure of exit from the monetary union, it is necessary to do this. From their point of view, the only way to leave the Eurozone would be a disorderly default. Experts stress that in this case it is necessary to nationalize the banking sector because if Greece left the eurozone, national banks would go bankrupt.
Capital Economists point out that the key advantage of abandoning the single currency would be the ability to switch to a new currency, devalue it and enjoy the competitive benefits of a weak exchange rate. However, economic actors would then need to restructure all foreign-currency debt. Otherwise, the debt of borrowers - individuals and corporations - will increase manifold.
Analysts say that the economy and financial system of the country that is leaving the Eurozone will undoubtedly suffer greatly. In this case the Greek population will rush to banks to take their deposits. This could be prevented by freezing deposits or by restricting the export of capital from the country. It should also be noted that there is a risk of there being a large black market in dollars and euros during the creation of the new currency.
To sum up, the Greek exit plan must include nationalization of Greek banks, measures to curb cash and capital outflows from the country and restructuring of the country's huge external debt.
Eurozone finance ministers will announce on 3 July whether Greece has met the conditions required to receive the next tranche of funding.
Barclays Bank analysts are optimistic that despite all contradictions and hesitations Greek parliament will approve austerity measures.
Strategists of Standard Bank advise to sell euro against Swiss franc. Analysts at Morgan Stanley recommend opening shorts on the euro against the U.S. dollar, expecting the EUR/USD pair to fall to $1.36. Economists at CMC Markets believe it will take months or even years to resolve the Greek problems.
Revisited my markings... think there will be such traffic:
I'll go with 402 for now . I think today's sideways move is inclined to rise ))))
I'll settle for 402 for now . I think the sidecar is prone to rise today ))))
Well let's see what comes of it ;)
That's it, off to work.
Economists at CMC Markets believe it will take months or even years to solve the Greek problems.
Chinese triads will beat the money out of Greece since Europe has failed :)
Everyone is clearly waiting for something (volumes are down), on Asia both euro and pound have gone down smoothly to S1 pivot...
Down is kind of late to the upside yet...
on Monday (27.06.11) the expiry of July gold option contracts ends, after which the market pattern will change somewhat...