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2014-01-06 09:28 GMT (or 10:28 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Services PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
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U.K. Service Sector Growth At 6-Month Low; Bright Outlook For 2014
U.K.'s service sector growth unexpectedly eased in December to the lowest level in six months amid weaker increase in new orders, but the rate of expansion remained robust, suggesting that economic growth has likely accelerated in the fourth quarter.
Nevertheless, optimism among service providers regarding activity over the next 12 months climbed in December to the highest level in nearly four years.
Results of the latest purchasing managers' survey conducted by Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) showed that the activity indicator for the service sector dropped to 58.8 in December from 60 in November, marking the weakest improvement in operating conditions since June.
2014-01-06 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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U.S. Service Sector Unexpectedly Expands At Slower Rate In December
Activity in the U.S. service sector unexpectedly grew at a slower rate in the month of December, according to a report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Monday.
The ISM said its non-manufacturing index edged down to 53.0 in December from 53.9 in November, although a reading above 50 still indicates growth in the service sector. With the drop, the index fell to its lowest level since hitting 52.8 in June.
The pip cost for 1 ounce of Gold (minimum trade size) is $0.01 per pip.
The pip cost for 50 ounces of Silver (minimum trade size) is $0.50 per pip
Yellow Currency This Year
Despite gold biting the dust last year, some analysts are the most bullish in a year on speculation that investors are reducing near-record bearish bets after the biggest plunge in prices since 1981. It is to be noted that gold suffered one of the worst performances in 2013 and fell to the levels that was seen only three decades ago.
According to a survey investors and some analysts are willing to take risk as they believe that gold will rise this week despite the fact that gold retreated for the first time in 13 years in 2013. This is happening as an improving economy spurring speculation the Federal Reserve would curb stimulus.
China is one of the largest consumers of gold and according to analysts purchases may rise before China’s Lunar New Year festival on Jan. 31. India which is the largest importer of gold could not import it more as the government imposed heavy duty on the imports, as it was causing huge drainage on the Forex reserves.
The poor demand from India was though compensated by Chinese demand for the yellow metal; it was not enough to boost the prices. However, this year, some analysts believe that Chinese demand will help boost prices to a great extent.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
2014-01-07 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
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Australia's Trade Deficit Narrows As Imports Fall
Australia's external trade in goods and services resulted in a smaller-than-expected deficit in November amid a decline in imports, a report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed Tuesday.
The country's trade in goods and services showed a deficit of A$118 million in November, less than a revised A$358 million deficit in October and A$300 million shortfall expected. The deficit has now fallen for four consecutive months.
The value of imports dropped 1 percent month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms to A$27.49 billion in November. Exports remained almost steady at A$27.38 billion.
The currency backdrop has been a clear tailwind to export revenues in the second half of 2013 relative to the first half, with exchange rate having fallen close to 15 percent between April and November, Ben Jarman, an economist with J.P. Morgan Australia, said.
Dollar, Equities Little Moved by Yellen Nomination for Fed Chair (adapted from dailyfx article)
he US Senate confirmed Janet Yellen’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve when Chairman Bernanke’s term ends on January 31…but should that comfort over-exposed investors? Even those that are skeptical of the direct relationship between loose monetary policy and the robust optimism in US and global capital markets these past years cannot discount that the external support has buoyed risk trades to some degree. What happens when the recognition of that backstop’s limitations becomes the consensus? We may soon find out.
The more dramatic possibility from this change in tack is a cascading deleverage of low-yield-but-high-cost risk positions – distinctly dollar bullish. Yet, that would be a systemic change in the market’s belief system and thereby more difficult to reverse. That being said, the greenback’s safe haven appeal isn’t the only means of taking advantage. US Treasury yields and forwards rates are rising. The dollar’s ‘return’ appeal is rising at the same time the ECB and BoE outlook is growing cloudy.
Bitcoin bounces back in China to top $1,000
EUR/USD dips after upbeat U.S. trade data
But the euro struggled to build on gains after data on Tuesday showed that the annual rate of inflation in the euro zone slowed to 0.8% in December from 0.9% the previous month, fuelling fresh concerns over the threat of deflation in the currency bloc.
Elsewhere, data showed that the number of people out of work in Germany fell by 15,000 in December to 2.96 million, better than expectations for a decline of 1,000.
The country’s unemployment rate remained steady at 6.9%.
A separate report showed that German retail sales rose 1.5% in November, more than double expectations for an increase of 0.6%.
AUDUSD Waiting For Bearish Confirmation
AUDUSD has turned south during Asian session despite better than expected Trade Balance numbers; -0.12B vs -0.30B. But notice that number is negative which means that more goods were important than exported, so demand for AUD was not high which is reason for lower reaction on AUDUSD.
From a technical perspective we expect weaker AUD against the buck, but price is still above that 0.8882 key level that needs to be broken for a bearish case. If we get a daily close beneath that swing that we may look for possible shorts in this week.