Press review - page 62

[Sergey Golubev]

AUDUSD closing in on the lows of the year (based on dailyfx article)

• AUDUSD has come under steady pressure since failing last week at a key Gann convergence near .9160
• Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the Aussie while below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at .9035
• Immediate downside attention is on the 1st square root relationship of the year’s low at .8910 with weakness below likely exposing the intraday extremes of the year
• A cycle turn window is seen around the end of the year
• Only a daily close back over .9035 would turn us positive on the Aussie

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold forming a base (based on dailyfx article)

Before we left on holiday we wrote about the potential for a low in Gold during the first week in December. Despite numerous intraday probes below, the low close in the metal for the month remains the idealized turn window date of December 2nd. While the strength in Gold exhibited since then has admittedly been rather pathetic there is still a very real possibility in our view that this is all part of a basing process. Last week’s high of 1267.75 is an important near-term pivot with traction above needed to confirm that a more important low is indeed in place. On the other hand, weakness below 1211 on an intraday basis or a close below 1219 would negate the potential for a more important cyclical low.

[Sergey Golubev]

Saxo Bank’s 2014 Outrageous Predictions :

• EU wealth tax heralds return of Soviet-style economy
• Anti-EU alliance will become the largest group in parliament
• Tech’s ‘Fat Five’ wake up to a nasty hangover in 2014
• Desperate BoJ to delete government debt after USDJPY goes below 80
• Brent crude drops to USD 80/barrel as producers fail to respond
• Germany in recession
• CAC 40 drops 40% on French malaise

[Sergey Golubev]

AUDUSD and Fibonacci levels in trading (based on dailyfx article)

• AUDUSD has been on a downtrend and may continue to push lower.
• Previous levels of Fibonacci support can act as resistance levels
• When one Fibonacci level is broken, price often moves down to the next level of Fibonacci support.

One way traders like shorting after price breaks below a trendline or other significant level of support is to use breakout technique. This involves getting short immediately after price moves through a level of support. However, price oftentimes, retraces to retest the breakout area and traders have to endure time wasted and negative drawdown that comes along with this retrace.

[Sergey Golubev]

2013-12-18 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
  
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

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BoE Unanimous On Interest Rate, QE

Policymakers of the Bank of England unanimously decided to maintain the interest rate at 0.50 percent and quantitative easing at GBP 375 billion, the minutes of the meeting held on December 4 and 5 showed Wednesday.

All the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee agreed that neither of the price stability knockout conditions that would override the policy guidance provided in August had been breached.

Moreover, a recovery in output appeared to be under way, and inflation had fallen and was expected to remain close to the 2 percent target. The minutes said no member thought it appropriate to tighten, or to loosen, the stance of monetary policy at the current juncture.

[Sergey Golubev]

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that the United States will stride past Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world’s top oil producer by 2016. Energy Security will be a Major Issue. Post-2020 Middle-East Will Again Dominate Oil Sector

[Sergey Golubev]

Outside Bar Trading Strategies - it is very interesting to read because two trading strategies are described with trading results and the rules about how to trade (go to the link below this post).

[Sergey Golubev]

Key Levels to Watch Ahead of the FOMC

• XAU/USD has traded in a sideways to higher range since finding support near the 1st square root relationship of the year’s low earlier in the month
• Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the metal while below last week’s high near 1268
• The low close of the month at 1219 is an important pivot with weakness below on a closing basis needed to singal a downside resumption
• A medium-term cycle turn window is seen around the latter part of next week
• Traction over 1268 is needed to turn us positive on Gold

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AUD/USD recorded a new low close for the year on Tuesday (by 1/10th of a pip on the FXCM platform). The decline to this point has been impressive with the exchange rate losing more than 8 big figures since its failure at the 200-day moving average back in October. However, the decline is now more than 40 trading days old. One of our favorite trend cycle lengths is around 45 days as this marks a Gann Commodity “Death cycle” where short-term reversals are more frequent. Interestingly this day count will roughly coincide with the Winter Solstice (in the Northern Hemisphere) this weekend which is another potentially important inflection point in Gann theory. It is also worth pointing out that the last few weeks of December are one of the stronger periods of the year for the exchange rate on a seasonal basis. Factors certainly seem to be aligning for at least a short-term reversal in the Aussie over the next week. Tempting as it might be to try to catch the bottom tick, we prefer to wait for strength that confirms our notion before positioning. Any continued weakness into the latter part of next week will negate the potential positive cyclicality.

[Sergey Golubev]

2013-12-18 19:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

• past data is 0.25%
• forecast data is 0.25%
• actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

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Fed Tapers Bond-Buying But Vows Low Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday tapered its massive bond-buying program by $10 billion to $75 billion per month, citing recent improvement in the U.S. jobs market.

Beginning in January, the Fed will buy mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month.

"In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases," the Fed said in a statement accompanying today's decision.

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are working to negative the potential Head and Shoulders setup identified earlier in the week. Sellers are testing below support at 1210.35, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a close beneath this barrier exposing the 50% level at 1192.62. A turn back above 1210.35 sees the first major layer of resistance at 1260.84.