XAUUSD Technical Analysis 15.12 - 12.01: Ranging - page 5
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Press review
newdigital, 2014.01.07 17:56
Sudden gold plunge has traders looking for answers
... " said Matthew Hoverman, senior trader at Grafite Capital. "There is a high likelihood that that's what happened today."
When traders buy gold (or any other futures contract) they often do so with a "stop-loss order," which limits the amount of money that can be lost by automatically selling out of a long position when gold trades down to certain level.
This can compound swift moves, because an initial sale executed poorly or in error sends the market lower, triggering stop losses, which generates more selling, and in turn triggers more stop losses.
This snowball effect explains why the gold market can drop some 2.5 percent in seconds, as it did on Monday morning.
Monthly timeframe - gold is on bearish and it is falt for now. But bearish anyway (and bearish trend for the next future on MN1 timeframe) ... and next tagret is $1180
Weekly timeframe is bearish too with the target 1182:
D1 timeframe - primary bearish too with downtrend will be started soon. Price is floating inside the channel of 1248 and 1182 :
H4 timeframe - it is only timeframe with primary bullish trend. But I think - it is ket timeframe because Chinkou Span line (light blue line on the left of the chart) is going to be crossed with historical price - we see it from the chart below. If it will be happened so the gold may break 1182 support line (because Ichimoku cloud is not strong enough to stop the price to go down) and - yes, we may see $1000 :
$1000 may be very possible
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Thus, we need to watch H4 timeframe cocerning fundamental news events. Which events?
2014-01-08 19:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Meeting]
and
2014-01-10 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
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newdigital, 2014.01.08 15:01
2014-01-08 13:15 GMT (or 14:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
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U.S. Private Sector Adds More Jobs Than Expected In December
In an upbeat sign for the U.S. labor market, payroll processor Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) released a report on Wednesday showing that private sector employment increased by more than expected in the month of December.
ADP said the private sector added 238,000 jobs in December following an upwardly revised increase of 229,000 jobs in November.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
XAUUSD, M5, 2014.01.08
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
XAUUSD M5 : 895 pips price movement by USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event
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newdigital, 2014.01.06 18:38
What is the Pip Cost for Gold and Silver?The pip cost for 1 ounce of Gold (minimum trade size) is $0.01 per pip.
The pip cost for 50 ounces of Silver (minimum trade size) is $0.50 per pip
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newdigital, 2014.01.09 07:09
2014-01-08 19:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Meeting]
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Fed Minutes: Shift From Employment To Inflation
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes were released today from the meeting that ended on December 18. While detailed, not a lot of it was exciting. The biggest point of contention seemed to be around the outlook for inflation: Is below 2% inflation temporary, or not? That will be hashed out at subsequent meetings, but it was pleasant to see consensus about the reduction in the pace of asset purchases. The Committee weighed the marginal costs and benefits, and the ledger seems to favor a gradual diminution in asset purchases.
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XAUUSD, M5, 2014.01.09
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
XAUUSD M5 : 689 pips price movement by USD - FOMC Meeting news event
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newdigital, 2014.01.09 09:11
How to Trade the Double Bottom on Gold
The Forex double bottom pattern is widely popular among traders because it is easy to recognize, provides clear locations to place stops, and forecasts clear profit targets. Typically, the double bottom will take a familiar letter “W” pattern. This pattern is common on time frames as large as yearly and monthly charts and on smaller time frames like hourly, 5-minute, and even tick charts. We are going to discuss the method for trading this pattern and then look at a real-time example unfolding in gold.
Double bottom price patterns are usually found at the end of downtrends. The previous downtrend consisting of lower swing highs and lower swing lows begins to accelerate as sellers take full control. Next, price makes an extreme low as more and more sellers pile into the trade, however the extreme move is met with a combination of bargain hunters and sellers taking profits. The following rally creates the peak of the ‘W’ pattern that makes up the double bottom. The rally to the peak is what sellers, who missed the initial decline, were waiting for.
The Trade Setup for XAUUSD
After falling nearly $300/oz. on 6/28, Gold (XAUUSD) has just completed a retest of 6-month lows in the 1188 area on 12/20. On the chart above, you can clearly see the double pattern unfolding. Gold’s slow and steady rebound has led to three days above the previous downtrend line. RSI is a technical indicator that traders use to determine momentum.
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newdigital, 2014.01.10 06:44
2014-01-10 02:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
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China Export Growth Misses Forecast, Trade Surplus Falls
China's exports growth eased more than expected in December, while imports beat expectations signaling robust domestic demand, the latest figures released by the General Administration of Customs showed Friday.
As a result, the trade surplus missed forecast sharply at the end of the year.
Exports grew 4.3 percent year-on-year in December, slower than a 5 percent expansion forecast by economists. The pace of growth decelerated sharply from November's 12.7 percent increase.
Meanwhile, import growth accelerated unexpectedly last month, taking the annual growth rate to 8.3 percent. This followed a 5.3 percent gain in November and exceeded forecasts for a 5 percent rise.
The trade balance showed a surplus of $25.6 billion, down from $33.8 billion in November and $32.15 billion surplus forecast.
In the whole year of 2013, exports recorded a gain of 7.9 percent compared with 2012. Imports rose 7.3 percent. The trade surplus for the year amounted to $259.75 billion.
The country's exports and imports value totaled $4.16 trillion last year, recording an increase of 7.6 percent from the previous year. Customs spokesman Zheng Yuesheng said that this was the first time the total value exceeded the $4 trillion-mark.
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newdigital, 2014.01.06 18:38
What is the Pip Cost for Gold and Silver?The pip cost for 1 ounce of Gold (minimum trade size) is $0.01 per pip.
The pip cost for 50 ounces of Silver (minimum trade size) is $0.50 per pip
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
XAUUSD, M5, 2014.01.10
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
XAUUSD M5 : 539 pips price movement by CNY - Trade Balance news event
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newdigital, 2014.01.10 10:24
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to increase another 197K in December and a better-than-expected print may heighten the bullish outlook for the dollar as it raises the Fed’s scope to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
A pickup in job growth may spur a further shift in the policy outlook as the Fed starts to wind down its asset-purchase program, and the central bank may take a more aggressive approach in moving away from its easing cycle as the economic recovery gathers pace.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFP Rises 197K+; Unemployment Holds or Falls from 7.0%
- Need to see red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short trade on EURUSD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Employment Falls Short of Market ForecastMetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
XAUUSD, M5, 2014.01.10
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
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newdigital, 2014.01.10 20:38
Gold threatening to breach key Gann resistance (based on dailyfx article)
Strong down trend