Kalman Cone Forecast MT5

 Kalman Cone Forecast MT5 – Predictive Trend & Volatility Signal for MT5


The Kalman Cone Forecast brings institutional-grade predictive mathematics directly to your MetaTrader 5 chart. The Kalman Cone Forecast is not a moving average. It is not a repaint-prone oscillator. It is a predictive volatility framework — one that simultaneously tells you where price should be, where it is likely going, when it has gone too far, and whether you should be trading at all.

📈  How It Works

At its core runs a Local-Linear-Trend Kalman Filter — the same predictive framework used in aerospace and quantitative finance — recalculated in real time on every bar. It continuously estimates two values:

- Level — The noise-filtered fair-value price, free of tick-to-tick volatility.
- Slope — Live directional momentum, derived purely from the filter's own math.

From those two values, the indicator projects a forward-facing probability cone (1σ / 2σ / 3σ) that dynamically shows where price is statistically expected to travel over the next N bars. The tighter the cone, the higher the predictive confidence. The wider it spreads, the more chaotic and uncertain the environment.

 

🌟  Key Features

 Dynamic Probability Cone
The indicator draws a forward-projecting confidence cone (68%, 95%, or 99.7%) that visualizes exactly where price is statistically expected to stay over the next N bars. Think of it as a "weather forecast" for price: the wider the cone (points), the stormier the market.
  • Tight cone = high-conviction trending conditions.
  • Wide cone = choppy, uncertain environment, elevated noise, reduce exposure.
Cone Points What It Tells You Trading Implication
Small (e.g., 15–30 pts) The cone is tight. The filter is confident. Price is moving in a stable, predictable way. 🟢 TRADE territory. High conviction. The market is "behaving." Good environment for entries with tight stops.
Medium (e.g., 40–70 pts) The cone is widening. Uncertainty is building—maybe volatility is expanding or the trend is shifting. 🟡 CAUTION territory. Predictive power is fading. Tighten stops, reduce position size, or wait for clarity.
Large (e.g., 80+ pts) The cone is wide. The filter is unsure. Price action is noisy, choppy, or transitioning between regimes. 🔴 STAND DOWN territory. Predictions are unreliable. Risk of false breakouts is high. Protect capital first.

Auto-Calibrating Volatility Engine
No more guessing input values. On load, the indicator measures the symbol's recent bar-to-bar movement and auto-tunes its sensitivity to match. Whether you're trading a slow forex pair or a volatile crypto-like index, the math scales itself.

Three Reaction Modes
- SLOW — Filtered, big-picture view. Best for H1 swing trading.
- AUTO — Balanced and responsive. The default for M5–M15 day trading.
- FAST — Tracks micro-movements. Built for scalpers.

Statistical Exhaustion Arrows
Ever wonder when a trend is actually overstretched? The exhaustion engine compares the current bar's wicks against the filter's prior prediction. When price spikes beyond a set sigma threshold (default: 2.0), a yellow arrow prints above or below the bar – a high-probability reversal or pullback warning. No more buying tops or shorting bottoms blindly.  

Real-Time Decision Dashboard

The built-in info panel instantly tells you the market's "mood" using three color-coded states:
  • 🟢 TRADE – The cone is tight vs. recent price range. High conviction. Time to look for entries.
  • 🟡 CAUTION – Uncertainty is rising. Wider cone. Tighten stops or reduce size.
  • 🔴 STAND DOWN – Predictive power is low. The market is chaotic. Protect capital.
Plus live readouts for:
  • Filter State – LOCKED / TRACKING / SEARCHING (how confident the math is in its own estimate)
  • Trend – UP / DOWN / FLAT (derived from live slope momentum)

🔔 Full Alert Suite
Pop-up, sound, mobile push, and email alerts — fired once per bar (no tick-spam) — for signal changes, trend flips, and exhaustion events.

🤖 EA-Ready with 9 Dedicated Buffers

Read Signal Code, Trend Direction, Cone Width, Kalman Level, Slope, and Exhaustion levels directly from any Expert Advisor via `iCustom()`. Build automated strategies based on statistical confidence, not simple crossovers.


🛠️ Recommended Setups

| Style | Timeframe | Mode | Forecast Bars |
| Scalping | M5 | FAST | 10–20 |
| Day Trading | M15 | AUTO | 20 |
| Swing Trading | H1 | SLOW | 20–40 |

Recommended: `Cone_Sigma = 2` (95% confidence) for forex and indices. Use `3` for ultra-conservative risk boundaries.

Check the Inputs tab for full visual customisation — colours, sizes, panel layout, projection length, and trend filter strength.

 

🔥 Introductory Offer

Get Kalman Forecast at the launch price of $59 for the first 10 buyers. After that, it returns to the standard retail price of $79.

🏆 What You Get

✅ Low-lag Kalman level line (adaptive fair value)
✅ Live historical probability bands
✅ Forward-projecting confidence cone with fill
✅ Statistical exhaustion arrows
✅ Three-state decision dashboard with filter diagnostics
✅ Full alert suite (pop-up / sound / push / email)
✅ 9 EA-readable buffers for automated trading
✅ Auto-calibrates to any symbol — no manual tuning


⭐ Your Feedback Matters! If this indicator earns its place in your trading, please leave a 5-star rating and a review on the MT5 Market — it helps other traders find the tool and tells me which features to build next.

Disclaimer: Trading involves risk. This indicator provides decision support, not guaranteed profits. Always use proper risk management and test thoroughly on a demo account before going live.


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