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Tengo 8 años de experiencia en trading. Soy un seguidor de tendencias y comercio principalmente utilizando el método de las Tortugas.
Dado que los mercados han cambiado desde los años 80, utilizo períodos más largos para los breakouts y los trailing stops, sin piramidación y un múltiplo ATR más grande como stop loss.
¡Antes de operar basado en un nuevo método o un nuevo conjunto de parámetros, realizo backtesting, y tú también deberías hacerlo!
Dado que los mercados han cambiado desde los años 80, utilizo períodos más largos para los breakouts y los trailing stops, sin piramidación y un múltiplo ATR más grande como stop loss.
¡Antes de operar basado en un nuevo método o un nuevo conjunto de parámetros, realizo backtesting, y tú también deberías hacerlo!
Daniel-gheorghe Muresan
Embrace being wrong most of the time. The trading systems i use have a win rate usually under 40%. Scary right? :)))))
Not at all. In fact most of the systems with positive expectancy have a win rate under 50%.
Markets allow a high win rate only because a big loss is hidden somewhere.
I do not want a lot of small profits just to blow my account later.
If the 80 - 90% win rate would work as claimed i would use those systems.
I am a trader in the first place and i know what works and what is bs.
Believe it or not trading is simple but hard to follow with a lot of small losses and drawdowns.
In the end everyone gets what he wants in trading like nice stories with smooth equity curve, high win rate or long term profitability by following 100% a robust system.
Easy but hard this is trading, real trading.
Not at all. In fact most of the systems with positive expectancy have a win rate under 50%.
Markets allow a high win rate only because a big loss is hidden somewhere.
I do not want a lot of small profits just to blow my account later.
If the 80 - 90% win rate would work as claimed i would use those systems.
I am a trader in the first place and i know what works and what is bs.
Believe it or not trading is simple but hard to follow with a lot of small losses and drawdowns.
In the end everyone gets what he wants in trading like nice stories with smooth equity curve, high win rate or long term profitability by following 100% a robust system.
Easy but hard this is trading, real trading.
Daniel-gheorghe Muresan
Behind a smooth equity curve and a high win rate often hides a system with negative expectancy!
Daniel-gheorghe Muresan
Trading is built on a few essential principles:
- Cut your losses fast
- Let your winners run
- Follow the price, not your opinion
- Trade many markets and trade them the same way
- Use small, equal risk per trade
- Have rules. Follow them. Always
These ideas are simple and passed the test of time.
They work across instruments, across decades and across market regimes.
Not just in simulation, but in real trading.
If you learned something today, hit the like button and share it with someone who trades. It helps more than you think.
- Cut your losses fast
- Let your winners run
- Follow the price, not your opinion
- Trade many markets and trade them the same way
- Use small, equal risk per trade
- Have rules. Follow them. Always
These ideas are simple and passed the test of time.
They work across instruments, across decades and across market regimes.
Not just in simulation, but in real trading.
If you learned something today, hit the like button and share it with someone who trades. It helps more than you think.
Daniel-gheorghe Muresan
The most sold trading robots are those who have a high win rate and show millions of dollars profits in a backtest. They are bought mostly by beginner traders which lack trading education. They think that high win rate is a key condition for success in trading. This comes mainly from the school education when a good grade validates your knowledge. These robots are well marketed but what actual trading strategies are automated of course are black box. The buyer does not need to know what is under the hood. He must believe in the high win rate, spectacular gains, precision, well optimized, professionalism, institutional grade, high quality trading, right trading conditions, intelligent and many other words which sound well at the buyer ear.
Daniel-gheorghe Muresan
ATR Trade Manager MT5 A Trader's Guide to Every Button and Every Rule (v1.07) What This EA Actually Does Most traders lose money not because they can't find good setups, but because of what happens after they find one: sizing the trade, placing it accurately, and managing it without emotion...
216
Daniel-gheorghe Muresan
The direction of the price evolution cannot be predicted regardless of what you use. The only thing you control is how much you risk per trade. After you place a trade what happens is out of your control.
Daniel-gheorghe Muresan
The worst thing you can do in trading is to not have stop loss at all. Since you can't limit your losses to a predefined percentage from your account by not using a stop loss you invite disaster in your account. The same is by risking too much per trade but this is going to be a subject for another topic.
Let's say that you trade EUR/USD and you use a 50 pips stop loss. Is this too much or too less? It depends the time frame you trade and the market volatility. You see "volatility" which means that the price does not move in average the same all the time. So if you use a fixed number of pips sometimes you will give too much room for the price to evolve and sometimes too little. In either case you will diminish your returns.
To measure the market volatility we use the average true range(ATR) usually with a 14 or 21 period lookback.
Look at the EUR/USD chart an notice how much can change the market volatility.
Things get even worse if you trade a more volatile pair like GBP/USD, not to mention the really volatile pairs like USD/JPY or GBP/JPY. If 50 pips was good enough on EUR/USD it will not suffice for sure on the other pairs.
What you can do in this situation?
You must incorporate volatility in your stop loss calculation. Maybe the simplest way is to use an ATR multiple as distance from your entry point to place your stop loss. By doing this you will reduce the chances to be whipsawed by normal price movement. Let's say that at the moment you want to enter a trade the atr value is 50 pips. You can place the stop loss at 2 or 3 atr multiples distance from the entry which means 100 or 150 pips away. While there is no magic value for the atr multiple you should use still you must know that a tighter stop loss tends to be whipsawed more often. In the same time if the trade runs in your favor you will get more RR multiples. We talk here about a tradeoff.
What type of stop loss you use in your trading and why? Join the discussion.
Let's say that you trade EUR/USD and you use a 50 pips stop loss. Is this too much or too less? It depends the time frame you trade and the market volatility. You see "volatility" which means that the price does not move in average the same all the time. So if you use a fixed number of pips sometimes you will give too much room for the price to evolve and sometimes too little. In either case you will diminish your returns.
To measure the market volatility we use the average true range(ATR) usually with a 14 or 21 period lookback.
Look at the EUR/USD chart an notice how much can change the market volatility.
Things get even worse if you trade a more volatile pair like GBP/USD, not to mention the really volatile pairs like USD/JPY or GBP/JPY. If 50 pips was good enough on EUR/USD it will not suffice for sure on the other pairs.
What you can do in this situation?
You must incorporate volatility in your stop loss calculation. Maybe the simplest way is to use an ATR multiple as distance from your entry point to place your stop loss. By doing this you will reduce the chances to be whipsawed by normal price movement. Let's say that at the moment you want to enter a trade the atr value is 50 pips. You can place the stop loss at 2 or 3 atr multiples distance from the entry which means 100 or 150 pips away. While there is no magic value for the atr multiple you should use still you must know that a tighter stop loss tends to be whipsawed more often. In the same time if the trade runs in your favor you will get more RR multiples. We talk here about a tradeoff.
What type of stop loss you use in your trading and why? Join the discussion.
Daniel-gheorghe Muresan
NR7 Opening Range Breakout EA for MT5 tested on a small but diversified portofolio: metals, forex, indices and commodities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEbEOF0gC3o&t=6s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEbEOF0gC3o&t=6s
Daniel-gheorghe Muresan
NR7 Opening Range Breakout EA: Automating Toby Crabel's Compression Methodology If you've spent any time studying intraday price action, you've probably run into the idea that volatility moves in cycles, periods of contraction followed by expansion...
442
1
Daniel-gheorghe Muresan
Ha publicado el producto
EA NR7 Opening Range Breakout — Intradía Basado en la metodología de compresión NR7 probada de Toby Crabel Sin Martingala. Sin Grid. Creado por un trader con 8 años de experiencia, no solo un programador. Este asesor experto está inspirado en el trabajo de Toby Crabel publicado en "Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout". Qué hace este EA El EA NR7 ORB automatiza uno de los conceptos intradía más probados en el análisis técnico: identificar periodos de compresión
Daniel-gheorghe Muresan
Ultimate Breakout EA: The All-in-One Channel Breakout System for MT5 By Muresan Daniel | Version 1.00 Breakout trading is one of the most enduring and popular methodologies in the financial markets...
545
Daniel-gheorghe Muresan
Ha publicado el producto
Asesor Experto que combina tres sistemas de trading por ruptura probados en una sola herramienta. El trader selecciona la estrategia activa desde el menú de entrada al adjuntar el EA a un gráfico. Las tres estrategias comparten la misma arquitectura central: gestión de riesgo basada en el saldo, dimensionamiento de posición derivado del ATR, una sola posición a la vez, sin piramidaje, y reenganche automático a posiciones existentes después de un reinicio o recarga. Sin Martingala. Sin Grid
