Gold tested & held immediate support at 1307/06 on Friday as hoped. We are overbought & Friday's candle was not positive so there is a risk of weakness today as far as 1302/00. A low for the day could be seen here but our longs need stops below 1297. Go with a break lower then using 1299/1300 as resistance & look for a move towards the next downside target of 1291/90.
AUDUSD has formed a longer term bullish golden cross signal with 100 day moving average crossing above 200 dma, something that funds will be paying attention to this week.
EURUSD continue to hold above 1.3530/00 which keeps the outlook quite positive but we need a close above 1.3620 to confirm. A break below 1.3500 turns the outlook negative for this week.
GBPUSD above 1.7030 is more positive for the pair in this bull trend & allows a retest of 1.7060/65. A break above here is expected eventually this week & targets 1.7100/05 then 1.7140/45.
USDJPY going no where but the levels appear to be working. Below 102.01/04 targets 101.86/83 then last week's low of 101.70. The important support to watch this week is 101.60/55 & offers a buying opportunity with stops below 101.45.
Here is a post from Forex Factory by "FTI" : Technical Analysis Fallacy - First Post: Nov 25, 2007 9:41pm
Apologies -no mentor, or course, or literature can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets. -"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose" Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.
Since the late 70's and into the millennium. Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few, The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow theory which later lead to the creation of the Dow Jones Indexes. Rene Descarte who introduced the Spiral studies. Leonardo Da Vinci who fostered the Fibonacci principles, W.D. Gann, who introduced Cyclic Studies of Squaring time and price. R.N.Elliot, who introduced the Elliot Wave Studies W.Wilders who introduced the mathematics of calculating overbought and oversold markets by his introduction of the DI+,DI-, ADX lines and the Relative Strength Index. The Stocastics, MACDs, ……………………………...etc
If one was to implement all these studies onto their charts. What you will see is a beautiful piece of art, displaying very impressive hog wash, that do nothing but dazzle the uninitiated. If anything else it 'll confuse you even more.
Then you have the charting specialist who have introduced many ways to chart eg:-Linear Charts, HLC Bar Charts, Japanese candlestick charts, Point & Figuring, John Hill's Bar Chart congestion & reversal patterns, reverse point waves, pivots, fractals, ………..etc
Today, we find lots of originally and mutated techniques and methodologies available to the Chartist or Technicians.
What many fail to realise, is that all these studies, basically are statistical tables plotted in graphic form to present a "picture" to assist traders in their decision process. The maxim being, that a picture tells a thousand words.
"It is not theirs (the charts) to reason why, But to signal Sell or Buy, For the traders to do or die, Hoping that the signal does not lie,
I would, from my many years of studies, go so far as to say, that they all work, some more than others but they all do serve a purpose. (to give traders, the "guts" to do or die) If I may borrow from the quotes of Sir Winston Churchill. "That you can lie to some people all the time, all people some of the time, but not to all people, all the time." Similarly, theses studies can work in some market conditions all the time, all market conditions some of the time, but not all market conditions all of the time."
Think about what I've just quoted very carefully.
The problem with some people and some professional Technical Analyst today ( being a certified Technical Analyst myself ) is that they use the Technical studies as if, it were the "Holy Grail" of trading & their pathway to the millions.
How far that is from the truth.
Any person with a good brain on their shoulders, will ultimate come to the realisation that these are just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to trader behaviours? Many have forgotten that the market is the sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool.
Then how is it possible that these studies themselves can be considered the "Holy Grail"? It may be due to ignorance (being new and uninitiated), laziness, or just plain stubbornness ( a little knowledge is a dangerous thing). Of course it is not nice for me, to tell you about those who have "a little knowledge", trying to scam those who know less than them. That's another story. Some do so, because of a very new disease discovered recently, the sickness of "the chance". If you use the Technical studies as your "Holy Grail", I have only one word for you, GAMBLER.
I put it to you, that, to consider your Technical Studies to be more than what they are is a "fallacy" in trading the markets, not so unlike martingale gamblers' fallacy. It can lead you to a very dark place.
What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes.
I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seems of dominant importance, in my humble opinion.
I hope you will think about what I've said very carefully. I shall try to push these doors ajar for you slowly to show you the light at the end of the tunnel (please hope its no on-coming train), God willing.
EURUSD spiked below 1.3590/85 to important weekly support at 1.3535/30. We stated ''A very good chance of a low for the week...This is the best chance bulls have to regain control of the pair...Exit shorts & try longs but we need wide stop below 1.3490.'' This trade worked perfectly as the pair bottomed at 1.3501 & rocketed quickly towards strong resistance at 1.3675/80. This held a move higher almost perfectly as predicted but the outlook remains positive after Thursday's price action & as long as we can hold above the 200 day moving average at 1.3650 we can look for a test of resistance at 1.3690.
GBPUSD hit our target of 1.6835/45 & as predicted we did struggle here seeing a high for the day at exactly 1.645. The outlook is more mixed but further gains are not out of the question & if we can beat Friday's high we could target 1.6875/80.