D1 price was going along Sinkou Span A line which is virtual border between primary bullish and primary bearish for D1/H4 timeframes. Chinkou Span line crossed the prifce but on horizantal way which is indicating flat within primary bullish.
D1 price will break 1.3864 resistance level from below to above so the
primary bullish will be continuing (good to open buy trade).
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-04-28 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Pending Home Sales]
2014-04-29 06:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - GfK German Consumer Climate]
2014-04-29 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
2014-04-30 06:45 GMT (or 08:45 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - French Consumer Spending]
2014-04-30 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - CPI Flash Estimate]
2014-04-30 12:15 GMT (or 14:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
2014-04-30 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - GDP]
2014-04-30 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
2014-05-01 01:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]
2014-05-01 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks]
2014-05-01 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
2014-05-02 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on EURUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bullish
TREND : ranging
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.04.26 09:05
newdigital, 2014.04.27 06:19
For the second week in a row, the EUR/USD pair fell, but bounced enough
to form a small hammer. With that being the case, we believe that this
market will continue to grind sideways, and as a result this market
looks as if it is not ready to do anything at the moment. Because of
this, we are not interested in a longer-term trade in the EUR/USD pair,
but do recognize that there is a potential uptrend line coming soon, so
buying is possible, but not at this moment in time.
newdigital, 2014.04.29 07:29
EUR/USD mocks at Draghi's efforts and set sights at 1.3880 resistance
EUR/USD is climbing higher in Asia as the pair moved to 1.3861 after opening at 1.3849Risk vs. inflationEUR/USD
lived through a volatile session on Monday as the pair slumped to
intraday lows early in Asia on the back of further Russia- Ukraine
crisis escalation, but reversed losses and pushed to 1.3878 when the
European players joined the game. Ironically, German Import Price Index
came out lower than expected (-0.6% m/m, -3.3% y/y against forecasted
-0.1% m\m, -2.7% y/y), increasing chances that today’s CPI will fail to
meet expectations and put more pressure on ECB. Though markets seemed to
look the other way. Today the European session starts with German ПАЛ
Consumer Confidence index that is expected to stay unchanged at 8.5 in
April. Strong figures might support EUR and push it yesterday’s high at
1.3878, though the investor are more likely to be focused on CPI data
published later during the day. April y\y figure is expected to climb to
1.3% from 0.9% in March, but negative surprises are possible. If the
data fails to live up to expectations EUR/USD may dip to 1.3820 and then
to the key support level of 1.3800. What are today’s key EUR/USD levels?Today's
central pivot point can be found at 1.3848, with support below at
1.3817, 1.3782 and 1.3751, with resistance above at 1.3883, 1.3914, and
1.3949. Hourly Moving Averages are bullish, with the 200SMA at 1.3824
and the daily 20EMA neutral at 1.3816. Hourly RSI is bullish at 53.
newdigital, 2014.04.29 12:35
EUR/USD drops to 1.3850 on EMU data
The single currency is now reverting the early upside, dragging the EUR/USD back to the 1.3850 area after softer EMU releases.
EUR/USD deflates on dataThe pair is now giving
away some gains after EMU’s M3 Money Supply expanded below estimates at
an annual pace of 1.1% during March vs. 1.4% forecasted and February’s
1.3%. Private Loans followed suit, contracting 2.2% in a year to March,
missing forecasts for a 2.1% contraction. Previous releases showed the
German Consumer Confidence gauged by the Gfk Survey matching estimates
at 8.5 for the month of May. “Looking at the latest money and credit
growth data there remains a compelling case for further monetary easing
by the ECB. However, with inflation expected to bounce this month and
economic activity continuing to recover, we suspect that the ECB will
stick to its strategy of verbal intervention at next week’s press
conference and refrain from taking further policy action”, commented
Martin van Vliet, Analyst at ING Bank NV.EUR/USD levels to watchAs
of writing the pair is up 0.05% at 1.3858 with the next resistance at
1.3880 (high Apr.28) ahead of 1.3906 (high Apr.11) and then 1.3925 (high
Mar.19). On the flip side a breakdown of 1.3832 (daily cloud top) would
aim for 1.3824 (10-d MA) and finally 1.3815 (low Apr.28).
newdigital, 2014.04.29 15:20
2014-04-29 12:00 GMT (or 14:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German CPI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
Germany HICP Inflation Accelerates Less Than Expected
Germany's EU measure of inflation accelerated for the first time in
five months in April, but the figure came in below economists'
The harmonized index of consumer prices rose 1.1
percent annually in April, following a 0.9 percent gain in March,
preliminary figures from Destatis showed Tuesday.
forecast an inflation figure of 1.3 percent. The March inflation was the
lowest since June 2010, when the rate was 0.8 percent.
Month-on-month, the HICP dropped 0.3 percent in April. Economists had expected a 0.1 percent decline.
overall consumer price index climbed 1.3 percent in April, which was
faster than the 1 percent rise in the previous month. Economists were
looking for an inflation figure of 1.4 percent. Consumer prices fell 0.2
percent from the previous month, while economists had forecast a 0.1
Destatis is set to release the final inflation numbers for April on May 14.
April inflation figures for
Eurozone are due to be released on Wednesday. In March, Euro area
headline inflation fell to a worrying 52-month low of 0.5 percent, way
out of the ECB's target of "below, but close to 2 percent'.
European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio said the bank
does not have any target in mind for April inflation. He also asserted
that a single figure alone cannot prompt a policy change.
The bank is set to hold the next rate-setting session on May 8.
The central bank has several instruments at its disposal and it will use them if there is a need, Constancio reiterated.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2014.04.29
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
EURUSD M5 : 45 pips price movement by EUR - German CPI news event
Resistance level for today asnd tomorrow is 1.3879 instead of 1.3864 (just for information) :
newdigital, 2014.05.01 16:36
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis May 2, 2014 Forecast
is trading at 1.3880 inching higher on Thursday having ridden out two
days of worse than expected news on Eurozone inflation and the US
economy that have not fundamentally altered perceptions of the policy
outlook in either. The US dollar weakened on disappointing GDP numbers
and seemed to ignore the continuing tapering by the Federal Reserve.
year’s dominant trend on major currency markets is the euro’s continued
strength in the face of a steady reining in of US monetary policy
stimulus and expectations the European Central Bank would be forced at
some stage to do the opposite. A number of analysts had predicted low
euro zone inflation on Wednesday, following lower than forecast figures
out of Germany a day earlier, might be enough to turn the single
currency significantly weaker.
Policymakers at the euro zone’s
central bank have talked aggressively about their willingness to take
action to head off a debilitating cycle of falling prices and demand,
and as such have outright opposed any further gains for the euro.
they face substantial barriers to delivering the sort of decisive
policy action that would weaken the currency at a time when capital is
flooding back into the euro zone’s peripheral economies and stock
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and
commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three
components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data May 1, 2014 actual v. forecast
China – Labor Day
AIG Manufacturing Index
Chinese Manufacturing PMI
Nationwide HPI (YoY)
Nationwide HPI (MoM)
Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
Initial Jobless Claims
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Something Interesting in Financial Video May 2014
newdigital, 2014.05.01 16:39
Strategy Video: EURUSD Break or Reversal at 1.4000 is Investor vs ECB
After a weak showing from 1Q US GDP and a rebound in Eurozone inflation,
EURUSD was pushed back up to the top of April's range. This recent
move, however, doesn't properly encompass the fundamental, technical and
market conditions factors behind this benchmark pair. Nor does it
properly reflect its trade potential. The bullish inclination for EURUSD
is well founded in investment capital seeking out higher returns in the
Eurozone - another 'risk on' factor. Yet, the 1.4000-1.3900 region
carries a technical prominence and the ECB's ire. A large scale
confrontation is playing out, and we discuss its trading potential in
today's Strategy Video.
newdigital, 2014.05.02 09:25
EURUSD Forex Signals: Trading the Non-Farm Payrolls Report
EUR/USD forex signals show that the pair is trading inside a
symmetrical triangle on its 4-hour time frame as traders can’t quite
establish a clear direction on the pair. Price is testing the top of the
triangle around the 1.3875 levels but stochastic is reflecting selling
A selloff from its current levels could take the pair back to the
bottom of the triangle at the 1.3775 area. Consolidation around the
current levels could be seen for the most part of the day as traders
await the results of the non-farm payrolls report for April.
Recall that the US dollar reacts to fundamentals during this release,
as a strong jobs figure tends to support the currency while a weak
reading leads to a selloff. The past report has printed a bleak result
but there could be a stronger showing this time around. The consensus is
at a 216K rise in employment, which could push the jobless rate down to
6.6% from 6.7%.
In this case, EUR/USD might selloff to the bottom of the triangle and
an even stronger figure could lead to a breakdown. Take note that the
chart pattern is roughly 300 pips in height, which suggests that the
resulting selloff could be of the same size.
The fundamental bias for the EUR/USD pair is still to the downside,
given the divergence in monetary policy plans of the Fed and the
European Central Bank. Keep in mind that the ECB will make its policy
announcement next week and that officials are already considering
negative deposit rates or further easing measures. Meanwhile, the FOMC
statement earlier this week turned out to be relatively upbeat as the
Fed decided to push through with its taper and give optimistic comments
on the US economic recovery.
If the NFP turns out to be a downside surprise though, EUR/USD forex signals
might indicate a strong upside break from the triangle resistance and
rally until the previous highs near the 1.4000 major psychological
newdigital, 2014.05.02 11:27
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may spark a bullish reaction in the dollar (bearish EUR/USD)
as the economy is expected to add another 215K jobs in in April, while
the jobless is projected to narrow to 6.6% from 6.7% the month prior.
Why Is This Event Important:
A pickup in job growth paired with a further decline in unemployment may
put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to
normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later, but the data may do
little to alter the Fed’s policy outlook as Chair Janet Yellen remains
reluctant to move away from the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).
The ongoing strength in private sector consumption paired with the
uptick in business sentiment may prompt a sharp rise in job growth, and a
better-than-expected print may generate a near-term pullback in the
EUR/USD as it raises the fundamental outlook for the U.S. economy.
However, rising input prices paired with the persistent slack in the
real economy may push businesses to scale back on hiring, and a dismal
NFP print may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the reserve
currency as it drags on interest rate expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFPs Advance 215K+; Unemployment Slips to 6.6%
March 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD M5 : 37 pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event :
At the March Non-Farm Payrolls release we saw a print of 192K vs. 200K
estimates and the figure, largely in line, caused little follow through
in the EUR/USD pair. Following chop on both sides, we the week slightly
higher. On Wednesday we saw ADP Employment Change figures for April come
in slightly above estimates at 220K vs. 2010K expected. This will be
the last major event risk for the week a key for monthly opening ranges.
EURUSD, M5, 2014.05.02
EURUSD M5 : 48 pips by USD - NFP news event