Gold Signal Ledger

Gold Signal Ledger – XAUUSD signals that never repaint, with a ledger of every result

Gold Signal Ledger is a signal indicator for gold (XAUUSD) on MetaTrader 5. It measures how far price has moved from the volume-weighted value of the gold trading session and gives BUY/SELL signals with entry, ATR stop loss and three targets when an extreme move is rejected or when a trend day pulls back and recovers. Every signal is managed to its exit, and an on-chart ledger of every signal it ever gave on your chart shows the hit rate, average result in R, TP1/TP2/TP3 hit rates and results by session and by setup. The ledger is computed by exactly the same rules as the arrows, and the rules are written below, so you can recount any signal by hand.

Signals that are fixed when the bar closes

• A signal is decided only on a closed bar. Once an arrow is drawn it never moves, changes or disappears.
• Each closed bar is processed once, in time order. The forming bar only updates the session value line.
• The H4/D1 trend uses only higher-timeframe bars that were already closed when the signal bar closed.
• Tested, not just promised: in the Strategy Tester we compared every signal and exit seen live at the bar close (1-minute OHLC and real ticks, on M5, M15, M30 and H1 charts) with a fresh recalculation of the whole history: 2 630 signals and exits, 0 differences.

The signal rules

• Session value: the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of the gold session, which starts at 17:00 New York time (the daily gold reopening), using the typical price and tick volume of every bar. Around it, the standard deviation of price in the session measures how stretched the market is. Broker time is detected automatically.
• Exhaustion setup: the bar pierces the outer band (3.25 standard deviations from the session value) and closes back inside it, with the candle closing in the opposite direction. A low far below value that is rejected gives a BUY, a high far above value that is rejected gives a SELL.
• Reclaim setup: on a trend day (the last closed H4 and D1 bars both close on the same side of their 20-period EMA), price dips against the trend to the inner band (1.75 standard deviations) and the bar closes back across the session value, in the trend direction.
• Signal window: 07:00–20:00 GMT (London and New York).
• Signal timeframe: the signals are calculated on H1 bars, which had the most robust history results. On M1–M30 charts the H1 bars are built from your chart's own bars, so you see the same signals on every intraday chart. On H2 and higher charts the chart's own bars are used.
• One signal at a time: no new signal while one is open. Both setups, the band widths, the trend option for exhaustion signals and the window can be changed.

Stop loss, targets and exits

• Stop loss = 2 × ATR(14) from the entry (the close of the signal bar). TP1 / TP2 / TP3 = 1R / 2R / 3R. All adjustable.
• Entry, SL and TP1–TP3 of the latest signals are drawn as lines with prices, with a risk/reward box for the newest one.
• Exits are marked on the chart and every past signal gets a result tag (SL, TP1, TP2, TP3 and the result in R).
• Managed exit used for all results: 1/3 is closed at each target, the stop moves to entry after TP1, and the rest is closed at the bar close 48 hours after the signal (adjustable). If one bar touches both the stop and a target, the stop is counted first.

The ledger: honest statistics on your chart

• TP1 hit rate, average R per signal, profit factor (in R), total R, largest drawdown in R and the longest losing streak.
• TP1, TP2, TP3 and stop-before-TP1 rates with bars.
• Results by session: Asia (22–07 GMT), London (07–12), New York (12–22).
• Buy and sell results, exhaustion and reclaim results separately, and a History tab with the last 10 signals, their setup and outcome.
• The spread of the signal bar is deducted from every result. You can add commission or slippage as an extra cost per signal.
• Choose the window (bars) the ledger covers, and export the ledger to a CSV file to check it in a spreadsheet.

History statistics on XAUUSD (backtest)

Default inputs, H1 signals, IC Markets demo data, 2016-01 to 2026-10, spread + 0.10 USD per ounce extra cost on every signal. The rules were tuned on 2017–2022 only and then checked on 2023–2026.

• All: 664 signals, TP1 hit 55 %, average +0.15 R per signal, profit factor 1.33, largest drawdown 15.7 R.
• 2016–2022: average +0.18 R, profit factor 1.41. 2023–2026 (not used for tuning): average +0.085 R, profit factor 1.17.
• Exhaustion +0.15 R (329 signals), reclaim +0.15 R (335 signals); London +0.15 R, New York +0.15 R.
• There are losing years and losing streaks (2023 −2.4 R, 2024 −0.1 R), and the ledger shows them too. These are historical statistics, not a promise of future results.

Filters and alerts

• News filter from the built-in MT5 economic calendar (no WebRequest, no DLL): no new signals a set number of minutes before and after high-impact (optionally medium) news of the currencies you choose, with the next release shown in the panel. Off by default; not available in the Strategy Tester (the calendar is not available there).
• Direction filter: buy and sell, buy only or sell only.
• Alerts: popup, sound, push notification and e-mail, for new signals (with the setup) and, optionally, for TP hits, stops and exits.

Panel

• Three tabs: Signal (price distance from the session value in standard deviations, session value, H4/D1 trend, window, news, open signal with live result), Ledger and History.
• Light and dark themes (or automatic), scales with your screen DPI, movable and minimisable; position and tab are remembered.
• The session value line and the outer bands are drawn on the chart (can be hidden).

For EA developers

• Buffers: session value, upper and lower outer band, signal (+1/−1), entry, stop loss, TP1, TP2, TP3, setup (1 exhaustion / 2 reclaim), exit (type × direction) and open signal. Signal values are written only for closed bars and never change.
• A "calculation only" input turns off drawing and alerts when the indicator is used from an EA.

Recommended use

• Symbol: XAUUSD (any broker name such as XAUUSD.a, GOLD). Charts: M5 to H1 (all show the H1 signals). It works on any symbol and timeframe, but it is tuned for gold; on other symbols the ledger shows you the result first.
• Load enough history (the ledger uses up to 50 000 bars by default) and let the terminal download H4 and D1 data.
• The signals are not trade advice. Always use your own risk management.