Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for AUD/USD - page 3

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.26 10:36

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "Another week devoid of big-ticket Australian event risk is ahead, keeping investors’ focus on broader macro-level trends. The US data docket is dense with noteworthy releases including the Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge, a revised set of third-quarter GDP figures, and November’s Employment report. US economic news-flow has increasingly improved relative to consensus forecast since late October. More of the same may paint a picture of an economy running hotter than previously expected, encouraging a further hawkish shift in the projected 2017 Fed policy trajectory and weighing on the Aussie."


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.01 08:01

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Private Capital Expenditure and 17 pips range price movement

2016-12-01 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Private Capital Expenditure]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Private Capital Expenditure] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses.

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From official report:

  • "The trend volume estimate for total new capital expenditure fell by 4.9% in the September quarter 2016 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 4.0%."
  • "The trend volume estimate for equipment, plant and machinery rose by 1.0% in the September quarter 2016 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 1.9%."

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AUD/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by Australia Private Capital Expenditure news event



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.02 08:28

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 12 pips range price movement

2016-12-01 09:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From official report:

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.4% in October 2016. This follows a rise of 0.4% in September 2016 and a rise of 0.3% in August 2016."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.5% in October 2016. This follows a rise of 0.6% in September 2016 and a rise of 0.6% in August 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event



Sergey Golubev
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Aud cad inicia sua nova tendencia

Snabell Chu.., 2016.12.02 14:36

Audcad acabou de iniciar a sua nova tendencia que ira durar a provavelmente ate a proxima quinta feira. Anconselho a entrarem com posicoes de compra e seguir a tendencia ate so seu terminio. Bons trades a todos.

Thilan Perera
309
Thilan Perera  

A Dead Cross Is On The Verge Of Appearing On AUD/USD After RBA Rate Decision

Dead Cross On AUD/USD

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.07 02:05

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Gross Domestic Product and 49 pips range price movement

2016-12-07 00:30 GMT | [AUD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

  • "The Australian economy declined by 0.5% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the September quarter."

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AUD/USD M5: 49 pips range price movement by Australian Gross Domestic Product news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.18 12:23

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "Given the relative preponderance of US data in the coming week, including another look at third quarter growth, it seems likely that the US Dollar will remain very much the currency in play. That could then mean that the Aussie heads yet lower, assuming the US numbers hold up, even if it doesn’t fall to anything like the extent it did in the past week."


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.20 06:20

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 19 pips range price movement

2016-12-20 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From official report:

"There was still considerable uncertainty about the momentum in the labour market. The unemployment rate had declined over the past year, as had measures of excess capacity that accounted for the number of additional desired hours of work. Part-time employment had grown strongly over the previous year, but employment growth overall had slowed. Members noted that there was expected to be excess capacity in the labour market for some time, which was consistent with further indications of subdued labour cost pressures. This suggested that inflation would remain low for some time before returning to more normal levels."


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AUD/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event