Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for S&P 500 - page 2

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Sergey Golubev
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Quick Technical Overview - S&P 500: daily bearish

Daily price is on primary bearish market condition for 2,079 support level to be tested for the primary bearish trend to be continuing. Alternative, the price will be on ranging within 2,106/2.130 bullish reversal resistance levels and 2,079 bearish continuation support level.

 

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

S&P 500 Long-Term Technicals: weekly breakdown to secondary correction, or the bullish ranging within the narrow levels

Weekly price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on secondary correction to be started on open weekly bar for now with the 2,056 support level to be broken for the secondary correction to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 2,191 resistance level to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.

 

  • If the price breaks 2,191 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If weekly price breaks 2,056 support level on close bar to below so the local downtrend as a secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 1,981 support level on close bar to below so the revel of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
2,1912,056
N/A
1,981

Trend:

W1 - bullish
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.09 17:37

Target Unchanged: Goldman Sachs Says Trump Win Doesn’t Mean Too Much for S&P 500 (based on the article)

Weekly price is located above Ichimoku cloud and above Sinkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. Price is on bullish ranging within 2,191 resistance level and 2,079 support level waiting for the direction of the bullish trend to be resumed or to the secondary correction to be started.

  • "As markets digest Donald Trump’s victory, one prominent Wall Street prognosticator is keeping his year-end S&P 500 Index target unchanged."
  • "David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., sees the benchmark gauge ending 2016 at 2,100, just 1.8 percent below Tuesday’s close and less than half a percent from where futures indicate the index will open on Wednesday. His forecast, tied for second most-bearish in a Bloomberg strategist survey, envisions limited fallout from a Trump presidency and says stocks are likely to resume their ascent in coming years."
  • "We expect the equity market response to the election result will be limited,” Kostin wrote in a client note on Wednesday. “The U.S. economy has been expanding for seven years and continues to grow at a subdued pace. We expect the U.S. stock market will climb slowly during the next few years in line with earnings growth."
  • "Unpopular presidents do not equate to bad economic and stock market outcomes,” Lee wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. “This is restoring some ballast to the political system. The Fed is likely on hold in December and USD weakening is easing financial conditions. Both should be perceived as short-term positives by investors."


If the price breaks 2,191 resistance level to above on close weekly bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 2,079 support level to below on close weekly bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If the weekly price breaks 1,981 support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.17 14:57

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, S&P 500 and Dax Index: U.S. Consumer Price Index and Residential Building Permits

2016-11-17 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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2016-11-17 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From official reports:

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD M5: 38 pips range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events


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S&P 500 M5: range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events


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Dax Index M5: range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.22 20:22

S&P 500: bouncing from new high (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal levels on the bullish area of the chart with 2202 resistance level to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing.

 

  • "It’s a holiday week in the U.S., with markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Wednesday, many market participants will look to leave their desks early and Friday is set up for a ‘nothing-type’ day in terms of volatility and volume. The combination of persistent upward pressure, new highs, and a holiday trading environment make fighting the trend a difficult proposition. No need here to be a hero.
  • "We will first look to support in the 2188/2194 area (2194 = old highs), and below there, should we see the first levels fail to hold, the market is likely to find dip buyers in the 2170/82 vicinity. Looking to potential ‘hidden’ resistance at new highs, there lies a trend-line running over peaks during H1, 2015 and the August highs. Right around the 2207 mark at this time.

Most likely scenario is the following: the price will be bounced from 2200/2210 resistance levels to below for the ranging trend to be started within the narrow s/r levels. 


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.25 17:39

S&P to record highs on Black Friday (adapted from the article)

The price is continuing with the bullish trend for today by new high to formed at 2.207 resistance to be testing for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The S&P 500 and the Dow hit record highs on Black Friday, helped by gains in consumer stocks at the start of the crucial holiday shopping season."
  • "Trump's stock market honeymoon continues as the indices push higher this morning, and the focus now shifts to holiday sales," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial in New York.
  • "The Friday after Thanksgiving is typically an up day, as most people who wanted to sell ahead of a four-day weekend did so during the week, leaving only bargain hunters left in the market,” said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at Phoenix Financial Services. “There’s typically an upside bias because of that, but once we get into next week and the sellers return, we could see some softness. "The three indicators I look at—market breadth, sentiment, and valuation—are all in areas where the market typically runs into some headwinds."


If the price breaks 2.207 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the daily price breaks 2,168 support level to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If the price breaks 50.0% Fibo level at 2,118 to below on close bar so we may see the bearish reversal to be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.02 14:55

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and S&P 500: Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-12-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report:

"The unemployment rate declined to 4.6 percent in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care."

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EUR/USD M5: 33 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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USD/CAD M5: 38 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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S&P 500 M5: pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.18 06:23

The Week Ahead: Stock Market Forecasts And What To Do (based on the article)


"This table from the Wall Street Journal reveals their forecasts for 2017 and the high end at 2400 for the S&P 500 would imply just a 6.6% rise from current levels. If you want to learn more about the accuracy of their forecast I would suggest you read this excellent New York Times article by Jeff Sommer.  In reviewing the strategist's forecasts he quotes independent statistician Salil Mehta “It’s not easy to be as bad as they are."



 

S&P 500 price is on bullish market condition for 2270 resistance level to be tested for te bullish trend tobe continuing. By the way, the daily correction will be started if the market crosses 2200 to below on close daily bar, and the daily bearish reversal level is 2100 which is the level for Senkou Span turning level for now.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.19 16:23

Quick Technical Overview - S&P 500: in the absence of sellers (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart. The price is on secondary ranging within the following support/resistanbce levels:

  • 2277 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed, and 
  • 2213 support level located in the beginning of the correction to be started.

Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the market condition as the ranging, and Chinkou Span line is above the price for the ranging trend as well by direction.


  • "The S&P 500 took another step on Friday towards consolidating the recent leg higher dating back to the 12/2 low. Our focus remains from the long-side with a little more backing-and-filling into support. The market may run into a confluence of support here shortly. We have our eyes on the intersection between the trendline running up off the November low and top-side trend-line extending back to the February double-bottom low. Intersection arrives at around 2245. However, if we see further sideways price action confluence may not be met given the angle of the November trend-line.
  • "In the absence of sellers, the market is correcting more in terms of time rather than price. A push higher will initially put the S&P up against resistance at the 12/13 record highs of 2277.5. On a breakout to new highs, with nothing to the left, we could see the market trading to the whole figure of 2300 in the not-too-distant future."

If the price breaks 2277 resistance to above on daily close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed, otherwise - ranging.


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