Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for GBP/USD - page 4

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.30 11:47

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Mortgage Approvals and 15 pips range price movement

2016-08-30 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Mortgage Approvals]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Mortgage Approvals] = Number of new mortgages approved for home purchases during the previous month.

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From BBC article: Mortgage approvals at 19-month low, says Bank of England

During July - the first full month after the Brexit vote - 60,912 new mortgages were approved, down from 64,152 approvals in June.

"Mortgage approvals for house purchases have progressively slowed after being buoyed in the first quarter by buy-to-let and second home sectors rushing to beat April's Stamp Duty increase for these sectors," said Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight.

"It is also highly possible that mortgage activity was hit in July by heightened uncertainty following June's vote for Brexit."

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GBP/USD M5: 15 pips range price movement by BoE Mortgage Approvals news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.30 16:22

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2016-08-30 14:00 GMT | [USD - Consumer Confidence]

[USD - Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households. Survey of about 5,000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation.

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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased slightly in July, increased in August. The Index now stands at 101.1 (1985=100), compared to 96.7 in July. The Present Situation Index rose from 118.8 to 123.0, while the Expectations Index improved from 82.0 last month to 86.4.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was August 18.

“Consumer confidence improved in August to its highest level in nearly a year, after a marginal decline in July,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of both current business and labor market conditions was considerably more favorable than last month. Short-term expectations regarding business and employment conditions, as well as personal income prospects, also improved, suggesting the possibility of a moderate pick-up in growth in the coming months.”

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EUR/USD M5: 11 pips price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news event


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GBP/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news event


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AUD/USD M5: 16 pips price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.31 14:31

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

2016-08-31 12:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

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EUR/USD M5: 6 pips range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event


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GBP/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event


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AUD/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.02 10:17

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: post-Brexit forecasts (adapted from the article)

The daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the primary ebarish area of the chart. The price is testing 1.3317 resistance level to above with the bear market rally for the ranging rally to be started within the primary bearish market condition. Alternative, if the price breaks 1.3058 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.

  • "The gap to open trading post-Brexit is thus far of the breakaway variety. The current level (slope line near 1.2800) and/or 1.2500 could inspire a ‘squeeze’ as part of consolidation before another leg lower. 1.2500 relates the 2009-2014 range (127.2% of that range from the 2014 high) and decline from 2007 (decline from 2014 = .618% of 2007-2008 decline)."
  • "1.2800 is still the low and the outside week (last week) suggests that Cable is building a base to work higher from."


The price is unlikely to be dropped to be below 1.2795 in the real post-Brexit situation so the most likely scenario is the following: the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.05 11:33

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Services PMI and 53 pips range price movement

2016-09-05 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Services PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

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From theguardian article: Biggest ever monthly rise as UK service sector PMI hits 52.9

"The services sector PMI may have come in ahead of expectations at 52.9, resulting in a healthy figure of 53.2 for the economy as a whole, but the blue-chip stock index remains unimpressed. Having started the day flat, the FTSE 100 is has edged down by around 0.2% to 6,880. However, the pound is on the up, reaching a seven-week high of $1.3375 against the dollar."

Dean Turner, economist at UBS Wealth Management, said:

Today’s improvements are in line with the string of robust economic figures we’ve seen throughout August. But, while there is some reason for optimism today, it’s still too early to conclude that the UK has escaped the Brexit vote unscathed.

We still expect growth to slow to zero in the second half of the year, although the current quarter may be a little stronger than anticipated, followed by greater weakness in the fourth quarter.

Now that we’ve seen some resilience in the UK economy, many are questioning whether last month’s Monetary Policy Committee decision was the right one. We believe the Bank of England has taken the correct course of action and expect them to ease further before the year is out.

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GBP/USD M5: 53 pips range price movement by U.K. Services PMI news event



 
Pound/USD is strong for a long time, but GBPJPY was stronger.
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.07 10:56

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Factory production and 45 pips price movement

2016-09-07 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

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GBP/USD M5: 45 pips price movement by U.K. Factory production news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.08 15:00

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: U.S. Jobless Claims

2016-09-08 12:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From CNBC article:

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength even as the pace of job growth is slowing.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 259,000 for the week ended Sept. 3, the lowest level since mid-July, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were unrevised.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits rising to 265,000 in the latest week.

It was the 79th straight week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, which is associated with robust labor market conditions. That is the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller.

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EUR/USD M5: 41 pips price movement by Jobless Claims news event


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GBP/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Jobless Claims news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.12 10:27

Short GBPUSD An Attractive Relative Value Trade by BNPP (based on the article)


  • "Market positioning has adjusted to reflect the shift in rate hike expectations for the BOE and the Fed, with cable short positioning recovering sharply from an extreme short position in July to only a modestly short position now. The short covering process could have further to run in the near term, but the lightening of positions should ultimately create opportunities for shorts."
  • "Short GBPUSD is likely to be an attractive trade again as we move into autumn."

Weekly price is located below Ichimoku cloud for the ranging condition within the narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 1.3444 resistance level located in the beginning of the local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started, and
  • 1.2865 support level located in the bearish area to be resumed.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging trend to be continuing for the following few months for example.

Most likely scenario for the weekly price in the medium term situation is the following: bearish ranging within the narrow levels waiting for the direction of the trend to be started.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.13 11:02

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and 31 pips range price movement

2016-09-13 08:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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CPI 12-month inflation rate for the last 10 years: August 2006 to August 2016:


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GBP/USD M5: 31 pips range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event



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