The price is on primary bullish with the secondary correction which was started in the middle of this month and it is continuing up to now: the price is breaking 0.7860 support level for the correction to be continuing with possible price reversal to the primary bearish by good possible breakdown.
D1 price is on primary bullish with secondary correction:
is on bearish market condition with secondary ranging between 0.7532 support and 0.8162 resistance levels
is on primary bearish with secondary ranging to be startedIf D1 price will break 0.7860
support level on close D1 bar so we may see the correction to be continuing with good possibility for breakdown up to reversal to the primary bearishIf D1 price will break 0.8162 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuingIf not so the price will be ranging between 0.8162 and 0.7860 levels
SUMMARY : correction to breakdownTREND : reversal
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 12:35
Forex Weekly Outlook May 25-29 (based on forexcrunch article)
The US dollar made a comeback and the greenback was a big loser in a
week that saw trends change. And now, US Durable Goods Orders, Consumer
Confidence as well as UK, Canadian and US GDP data stand out. These are
the highlight events in Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the main
market-movers for this week.
The Federal Reserve released minutes from its April 28-29 policy
meeting, revealing the planned rate hike will not take place in June.
Despite growing confidence in the US economic recovery, the recent data
suggest a temporary slowdown. Weaker consumer spending, slow growth and
employment data led policy makers to postpone their decision on raising
rates. Fed officials were also disappointed that falling oil prices did
not spur growth as anticipated and that the recent dollar softness muted
inflation. The Fed has reiterated it will not raise rates until it is
“reasonably confident” that prices are moving toward its 2% target. Will
the US economy rebound from its recent soft patch? In the euro-zone,
talk about front-loading QE hit the euro in particular. The common
currency reversed its previous gains. In the UK, inflation dipped below
0% and in Japan GDP came out better than expected.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.25 10:49
Forex technical analysis: AUDUSD makes a break back below the 100 day MA (based on forexlive article)
The AUDUSD made another stride in the bears direction by falling below
the 50 % retracement of the move up from the April 1 low and the 100
day MA (blue line in the chart above). Those levels come in at 0.7847
and 0.78415 respectively. This is the new risk defining level for the
pair. Stay below and the bears remain in control. Move above and the
waters get more muddy.
The pair has been down 6 of the last 7 days. The high corrective price
today, stalled right at the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below).
Traders short from that risk defining level, were rewarded with a kick
lower after the US CPI data. Next support target at 0.7800, then 0.7772
(61.8% of the move up).
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.25 18:34
Yellen's Words Fuels The Greenback's Rise (based on forbes article)
"The U.S. dollar hit a two-month high against the yen and is holding firm
against other Group of 10 currencies on Monday after Federal Reserve
Chair Janet Yellen suggested late last week the central bank will raise
interest rates in 2015."
"With U.S. markets and most of Europe on holiday today, the thinned
trading conditions will have most investors looking ahead to tomorrow’s
forward-looking U.S. durables data, and Friday’s release of second
estimate of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) as key fundamental touch
points for the dollar’s direction. Obviously, any news on Greece or of a
potential Grexit will have an immediate impact on the EUR, similar to
what happened in the overnight session in Asia."
"Yellen argued that the slowdown in first-quarter GDP
growth was “largely” due to temporary factors, such as the record cold
weather and a port dispute. The market took “largely” as being more
important or convincing than Yellen’s “in part” verbiage that was used
in the most recent FOMC statement (there will be a rebound in growth in
the second quarter)."
"Yellen repeated her assessment that “it will be appropriate at some
point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds
target.” Not a very transparent statement on timing, but if you include
rebounding economic growth, plus a pickup in consumer prices that’s
supported by wage growth, you have a fixed-income market now pricing in a
rate hike no later than September."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.26 06:12
Sell AUD/USD At S/T Resistance; Sell EUR/USD At Breakout Zone - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)
Credit Suisse looked at the technical setups for AUD/USD, and
EUR/USD where CS is bearish near-term, and recommends selling
limit-orders on approaching specific technical levels.AUDUSD
Starting with AUD/USD, CS notes that the immediate focus turns towards a cluster of supports at .7790/74.
"AUDUSD has reversed its early gains, completing a bearish “outside”
session to weigh on a cluster of supports at .7790/74 - the early May
low, 61.8% retracement and 55-day average support – where we would
expect fresh buying to show here". "A direct break lower though can trigger further selling for .7683
initially, followed by a stronger support from the range lows at
.7555/33. Near-term resistance moves lower to .7861/67, followed by .7936. Above can target .7976/86 and then .8030/63 which we look to ideally cap".
CS runs a limit order to sell AUD/USD at 0.7855, targeting a move to 0.7605.
EURUSD"We look for further weakness here to test the 55-day average at 1.0918 at first, through which can aim at the 61.8% retracement level at 1.0849/43, followed by the low end of the former range at 1.0660/14". "Near-term resistance moves to 1.1062, then 1.1101 with
price and “neckline” resistance at 1.1208/48 expected to cap to keep
the trend lower. Strategy: Flat. Sell at 1.1060, stop above 1.1248 for
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.26 09:42
AUD/USD – Consolidates Below Key 0.7850 Level (based on marketpulse article)
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the
AUD/USD is trading in a very narrow range above 0.7820. Current range:
trading right above 0.7820.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.7700.
• Above: 0.8200.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.26 20:04
Tech Setups For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD - Barclays (adapted from efxnews article)
The following are the latest technical setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY,
GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at
EUR/USD: Our bearish view was encouraged by the close
below former range highs near 1.1055. We are looking for a move lower
towards targets near 1.0850 and then the 1.0660 area. Our greater
targets are towards 1.0460. 1.1055 reverts to resistance.
USD/JPY: The break above the 122.05 highs confirms our
bullish view and completion of the six-month range trade. Our greater
upside targets are in the 124.15 area.
GBP/USD: Last Friday’s bearish engulfing candle and
the subsequent move through 1.5445 signals a squeeze lower towards our
targets near 1.5335. Breaking below there would signal deeper setback
towards 1.5130, the 50-dma.
AUD/USD: Last week’s bearish engulfing candle
encourages our bearish view. A close below our initial downside targets
near 0.7790 would signal lower towards 0.7680.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.27 08:10
Cool Down: A Look At AUD/USD (adapted from seekingalpha article)
"With below trend growth, low inflation expectations and an accommodative
monetary policy, it is difficult to see strengthening in AUD/USD. As a
result the recent rally in AUD/USD should be shorted. Investors and
traders without access to a forex account should consider to short FXA
at current levels and exit the position when AUD/USD falls to 0.7635, a
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.27 18:14
RBA Deputy Gov Lowe Speaks - Due to speak at the Thomson Reuters’ 3rd Australian Regulatory Summit, in Sydney (adapted from exchangerates.org.uk article)
The Australian Dollar softened against a host of other majors after
central bank warnings resonated with investors. Reserve Bank of
Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Phillip Lowe spoke at a business
conference this week and suggested that the markets should expect some
extreme volatility if the Federal Reserve begins to increase borrowing
costs. However, the weaker ‘Aussie’ would be favourable to the central
bank which has made numerous attempts to jawbone the currency.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.28 07:48
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Private Capital Expenditure] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses are quickly
affected by market conditions, and changes in their investment levels
can be an early signal of future economic activity such as hiring,
spending, and earnings.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
AUDUSD, M5, 2015.05.28
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.28 12:51
AUD Resuming Downtrend Backed by FX Sentiment & Volume Analysis (adapted from dailyfx article)
The recent spike in AUDUSD happened on muted volume,
which favors prior trend. Combining the lack of volume on the terminal
move in an addition to the following factors of sentiment and chart
patterns. This article will guide you through what to look for on the
chart while adding sentiment and volume analysis to see if the trend is
ready to resume or rather a reversal is underway.
Technical analysis looks for potentially repeatable patterns that can provide an edge, so long as risk is managed. The chart above shows AUDUSD traced out a clean broadening pattern
(diverging red trend lines), which communicates trend interruption more
than trend reversal and often favors a new low is likely in a larger