The price was ranging between 1.1466 resistance and 1.1061 support since the beginning of May this year. The daily price is on primary bullish market condition for now with secondary correction which was started on the beginning of last week on daily close bar. The price is continuing with this local downtrend/correction trying to break 2 support levels:
If those 2 support levels is broken so the price will be inside Ichimoku cloud for ranging market condition within the primary bullish with very good possibility to be reversed to the bearish on daily timeframe for this week.
D1 price is on primary bullish with secondary correction:
is on bearish market condition with secondary ranging between 1.0520
(W1) support level and 1.1466 (W1) resistance level
is on ranging bearish with 1.0461 support levelIf D1 price will break 1.1061
support level on close D1 bar so we may see the correctional ranging market condition within the primary bullish with good possibility for the daily price to be reversed to the bearish in the near futureIf D1 price will break 1.1466 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuingIf not so the price will be ranging between 1.1061 and 1.1466 levels
SUMMARY : correction within the bullish market conditionTREND : ranging
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.24 15:25
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook (based on actionforex article)
EUR/USD's fall last week and suggests that rebound from 1.0461 could
have completed at 1.1466 already, well below. 38.2% retracement of
1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810. Initial bias remains on the downside this
week for retesting 1.0461/0520 support zone. Meanwhile, above 1.1207
minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to
In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 long term
top is viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.3993 is the third leg
of such pattern. A medium term bottom is in place at 1.0461, ahead of
100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.3993 at 1.0283. Some
consolidations could be seen. But after all, break of 1.2042 support
turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise,
outlook will stay bearish. We'd still favor another fall to extend the
In the long term picture, price actions from 1.6039 (2008 high) is
viewed as a corrective move with fall from 1.3993 as the first leg.
We'll start to look for bottoming signal below 100% projection of 1.6039
to 1.2329 from 1.3993 at 1.0283. However, sustained trading below
1.0283 will open up the case for a new low below 0.8223.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 12:35
Forex Weekly Outlook May 25-29 (based on forexcrunch article)
The US dollar made a comeback and the greenback was a big loser in a
week that saw trends change. And now, US Durable Goods Orders, Consumer
Confidence as well as UK, Canadian and US GDP data stand out. These are
the highlight events in Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the main
market-movers for this week.
The Federal Reserve released minutes from its April 28-29 policy
meeting, revealing the planned rate hike will not take place in June.
Despite growing confidence in the US economic recovery, the recent data
suggest a temporary slowdown. Weaker consumer spending, slow growth and
employment data led policy makers to postpone their decision on raising
rates. Fed officials were also disappointed that falling oil prices did
not spur growth as anticipated and that the recent dollar softness muted
inflation. The Fed has reiterated it will not raise rates until it is
“reasonably confident” that prices are moving toward its 2% target. Will
the US economy rebound from its recent soft patch? In the euro-zone,
talk about front-loading QE hit the euro in particular. The common
currency reversed its previous gains. In the UK, inflation dipped below
0% and in Japan GDP came out better than expected.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 12:56
EUR/USD forecast for the week of May 25, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)
The EUR/USD pair broke down during the course of the week, testing the
1.10 level for support. That’s basically where we close for the week,
and this is an area that we should see support at. However, we are
closing at the very bottom of the range, and that of course is a very
bearish sign. This is a simple set up for us: we believe that if we get a
daily close below the 1.10 handle, that the market should continue down
to roughly 1.05 or so. On the other hand, if we get a supportive daily
candle near the 1.10 level, we believe that the market will then bounce
towards the 1.15 handle. With that being said, daily charts will
probably be where you need to look for setups.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.25 18:34
Yellen's Words Fuels The Greenback's Rise (based on forbes article)
"The U.S. dollar hit a two-month high against the yen and is holding firm
against other Group of 10 currencies on Monday after Federal Reserve
Chair Janet Yellen suggested late last week the central bank will raise
interest rates in 2015."
"With U.S. markets and most of Europe on holiday today, the thinned
trading conditions will have most investors looking ahead to tomorrow’s
forward-looking U.S. durables data, and Friday’s release of second
estimate of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) as key fundamental touch
points for the dollar’s direction. Obviously, any news on Greece or of a
potential Grexit will have an immediate impact on the EUR, similar to
what happened in the overnight session in Asia."
"Yellen argued that the slowdown in first-quarter GDP
growth was “largely” due to temporary factors, such as the record cold
weather and a port dispute. The market took “largely” as being more
important or convincing than Yellen’s “in part” verbiage that was used
in the most recent FOMC statement (there will be a rebound in growth in
the second quarter)."
"Yellen repeated her assessment that “it will be appropriate at some
point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds
target.” Not a very transparent statement on timing, but if you include
rebounding economic growth, plus a pickup in consumer prices that’s
supported by wage growth, you have a fixed-income market now pricing in a
rate hike no later than September."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.26 06:12
Sell AUD/USD At S/T Resistance; Sell EUR/USD At Breakout Zone - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)
Credit Suisse looked at the technical setups for AUD/USD, and
EUR/USD where CS is bearish near-term, and recommends selling
limit-orders on approaching specific technical levels.AUDUSD
Starting with AUD/USD, CS notes that the immediate focus turns towards a cluster of supports at .7790/74.
"AUDUSD has reversed its early gains, completing a bearish “outside”
session to weigh on a cluster of supports at .7790/74 - the early May
low, 61.8% retracement and 55-day average support – where we would
expect fresh buying to show here". "A direct break lower though can trigger further selling for .7683
initially, followed by a stronger support from the range lows at
.7555/33. Near-term resistance moves lower to .7861/67, followed by .7936. Above can target .7976/86 and then .8030/63 which we look to ideally cap".
CS runs a limit order to sell AUD/USD at 0.7855, targeting a move to 0.7605.
EURUSD"We look for further weakness here to test the 55-day average at 1.0918 at first, through which can aim at the 61.8% retracement level at 1.0849/43, followed by the low end of the former range at 1.0660/14". "Near-term resistance moves to 1.1062, then 1.1101 with
price and “neckline” resistance at 1.1208/48 expected to cap to keep
the trend lower. Strategy: Flat. Sell at 1.1060, stop above 1.1248 for
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.26 09:26
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Overcome 1.10 Figure (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro turned lower against the US Dollar as expected
after negative RSI divergence pointed to fading upside momentum.
Near-term support is at 1.0934, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a
break below that exposing the 61.8% level at 1.0808. Alternatively, a
reversal above the 38.2% Fib at 1.1059 clears the way for a test of the
23.6% expansion at 1.1214.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.26 20:00
Forex technical analysis; EURUSD takes another run at support (based on forexlive article)
The 61.8% of the move up from the April low is being tested for the 4th
time and has been broken. The level came at the 1.08814. Prior to the
break, the line was test on 3 separate occasions. Better US data
(durable goods, S&P Case Schiller, new home sales, consumer
confidence, Richmond Fed) has helped contribute. The pair has a 113 pip
trading range. The average is 141. So if the momentum can continue,
there is room to roam.
The 5 minute intraday activity in the NY session has not been a thing of
beauty to be honest. Apart from the last push lower, traders seemed
more intent on buying dips. Three successful test of the support target
can do that to you. This break is a chance for the market to shake the
choppy cobwebs away. The best case scenario would be to stay around the
1.0881-84 area, but already that is not happening (the price is back
above that area). The next best thing for the shorts is to put up with a
correction toward the 100 bar MA (blue line at 1.0905)/trend line (at
1.0911 currently). Both are moving lower.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.27 07:40
EURUSD: Traders Sell First And Ask Questions Later (based on actionforex article)
The strong selloff in EURUSD since the start of last week suggests
that the long-term downtrend may be resuming after a sub-50% retracement
in April and early May. Friday's big Bearish Engulfing Candle, along
with the break back below key previous-resistance-turned-support at
1.1050, set the bearish tone heading into this week, and with rates
peeking below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous rally,
more downside is possible this week. As for the secondary indicators,
the MACD is about to cross below its '0' level, signaling a shift to
outright bearish momentum, though the oversold Slow Stochastics hint at a
pause or near-term bounce over the next few days.
Bringing all of the above together, it would not be surprising to see
some near-term consolidation or a brief counter-trend rally in EURUSD
this week, but as long as the pair remains below the 1.1000-50 zone and
Greece's debt situation remains unresolved, traders will continue to
sell first and ask questions later.
A Bearish Engulfing candle is formed when the candle breaks above
the high of the previous time period before sellers step in and push
rates down to close below the low of the previous time period. It
indicates that the sellers have wrested control of the market from the
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.27 17:39
Greek headlines lead to snap back in EURUSD (based on forexlive article)
The news headlines on Greece led to a snap back move higher in the EURUSD (they can come at any time unfortunately).
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.28 08:47
Goldman Sachs downside targets on EUR/USD (based on forexlive article)
Phase I "Following the
ECB QE announcement on Jan. 22, EUR/USD settled around 1.14 for 5
weeks. On Feb. 26, higher-than-expected core CPI (for Jan.) caused EUR/$
to fall two big figures to 1.12. Subsequent days brought data that
showed decent activity, ending with better-than-expected February
payrolls on Mar. 6 and EUR/$ near 1.08. The start of ECB QE on Mar. 9
and associated curve flattening in the Euro zone took EUR/$ to 1.05 in
the run-up to the March FOMC".
Phase II"The March FOMC
had all the makings of a Dollar-positive catalyst. In the wake of this
meeting, USD appreciation ground to a halt, with EUR/$ cycling in a
range from 1.05 - 1.10. An upbeat ECB press conference on Apr. 15,
during which President Draghi emphasized the positive growth effects of
QE, helped push EUR/$ to the top of this range by end-April".
first quarter GDP reading for the US on Apr. 29 began the unwind of the
ECB QE trade, with EUR/$ and German Bund yields rising and the DAX
falling on the day. Weak retail sales for April (May 13) raised fears
that the Q2 growth rebound might be slow in coming, which were
exacerbated by the surprise drop in consumer confidence for May (May
15). EUR/$ broke out of its 1.05 - 1.10 range and returned to its
post-ECB QE level of 1.14, with broad Dollar weakness taking over
against the majors".
"As a result, we are inclined to see the recent sell-off in
the ECB QE trade as a temporary squeeze, albeit a painful one. It
remains our expectation that fundamentals will pull EUR/$ lower, in line
with our 12-month forecast of 0.95. We expect the market to refocus on
the European "growth crisis" in coming weeks, continuing to pull EUR/$