Methods of identifying a flat and a trend. - page 15

[[Deleted]]

VVT:

No, but politics and economics are tightly linked, and either the economy reacts to politics or vice versa, that's where I still have my doubts :))

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and strategy testing

The market is a controlled dynamic system.

Oleg avtomat, 2014.05.13 14:48

Here it is appropriate to recall the Kondratieff waves, which have a period of about 60 years. And these cycles are not imaginary, but rather clearly identified by empirical data. The mechanism of formation of these cycles is not well known, but this mechanism is more profound, fundamental, in relation to the pair "politics / economics".

It looks something like this:

Recall here the phases of rapid growth, saturation, stagnation and other descriptive characteristics of the development of countries - their societies, economies, industries, health, education, etc.

These long cycles are superimposed over smaller cycles of the second, third, fourth, etc. orders. These cycles can already be compared to government development plans - strategic (~20 years), average (~5 years), current (year, quarter).

Such a second-order wave looks something like this:

Smaller cycles are built on the same principle (I will not draw them here so as not to clutter up the picture).

The time scale of cycles is very important (figuratively speaking, a failure in the monthly production plan will not cause the collapse of the five-year plan for the economy).

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In the "politics/economy" pair, both politics and economics are interrelated and interdependent. And they both have a certain goal, which is set by the development plan, i.e. a task force that is external to them. Without a goal, there is neither politics nor economy. And the two dimensions are complementary.

Figuratively, this complementarity can be represented as follows:

.

If you decompose the wave (cycleG in the previous picture) into its components, it will look like this

The current level of economic development forces the adoption of certain political decisions. And vice versa, adopted political decisions affect the development of the economy.

.

And we should also remember and understand that we are inside this movement and not bystanders from a timeless world.

[[Deleted]]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and trading strategy testing

The market is a controlled dynamic system.

Oleg avtomat, 2014.05.15 01:46

Incidentally, in this vein, in the "politics/economics" key, the common concept of "free market" proves utterly untenable, and sits on the same board as such outright nonsense, or to put it another way, a fraud in a colourful wrapper called the "efficient market hypothesis".

[bar Vladimir]

The market does what it wants, not what is expected of it!

[[Deleted]]

bar Vladimir:
The market does what it wants, not what is expected of it!

I'm not claiming anything, but...

The market is WHO? Is it HIS doing something or is it HIS doing something?

[SanAlex]

Here is probably the trend-finding indicator for the topic

https://www.mql5.com/ru/code/16509

[VVT]

Олег avtomat:

Incidentally, in this vein of "politics/economics", the common concept of the "free market" is totally untenable, and on the same board as such outright nonsense, or in other words, the colourful wrapper hoax called the "efficient market hypothesis".

OK, let's discuss the fundamental one.

I understand that you've been discussing all this for a long time, but maybe there are some new insights. Would you like to share?

[[Deleted]]

VVT:

OK, let's discuss the fundamental one.

I realise that you have been discussing all this for a long time, but maybe there are some new insights. Would you like to share?

If "about everything and nothing"... no, I don't want to share.

Or about anything in particular?

[VVT]

Олег avtomat:

If "about everything and nothing"... then no, I don't want to share.

Or about anything in particular?

Start with the terminology. Which term is more applicable; politics is corrupt or economics is politicised :)

[Renat Akhtyamov]

VVT:

Start with the terminology. Which term is more applicable; politics is corrupt or economics is politicised :)

This forum discusses other issues

[[Deleted]]

Quoted in The Great Soviet Encyclopaedia. - Moscow: Sovetskaya Encyclopedia. 1969-1978, to the word Politics:

"Economic interests ultimately act as the social cause of political action. The nature of the relationship between the economy and P. is expressed in relief in Lenin's classical formulas: " Politics is the most concentrated expression of the economy..." (Lenin, Complete Works, 5th ed., vol. 42, p. 278) and "politics cannot but have primacy over economy" (ibid.). The first formula, based on the determining importance of economic relations, draws attention to the generality of the political image of economic reality. P. does not simply reflect the economy. In political demands and decisions, economic needs are purged of all the incidental and unstable, which leads to the highlighting of the main and basic. This process can proceed spontaneously, unconsciously, which in many cases deforms the political reflection of economic relations and interests."