Looking for patterns - page 200

New comment
 

good topic, informative so to speak, to add to the collection:

there is a strong imbalance between theoretical models of market patterns and their a priori assumptions and a lack of empirical evidence that the modelled processes are correct in practical terms



 
Igor Makanu:

good topic, informative so to speak, to add to the collection:

There is a strong imbalance between theoretical models of market patterns and their a priori assumptions and a lack of empirical evidence that the modelled processes are correct from a practical point of view



Exactly right... The search for patterns is by "gut feeling or trial and error". There is no THEORY at all.

Conclusions are not required - positive results are possible with the probability of winning the lottery...

 
CHINGIZ MUSTAFAEV:

This may sound silly, but after calculating the statistics I saw that when trends are formed, i.e. exactly in the segment where they occur, the noise level is always the highest...

And in trend reversals, by the way, there is practically none.

Are there any people here who have got the same results...?

What a paradox it all turns out...

I am addressing you in the first place, as you are, in my opinion, one of the most sober-minded people on the forum.

The noises are the fluctuations of the price?

There are different theories about reversal heralds; one of them is the intensive move in one direction and immediately in the opposite one, the so-called reversal bar. As for swings or consolidations, that is also sometimes a precursor of reversal.

 
.... When the trail is lost, the bushmen look at their surroundings through the eyes of an animal and model their behaviour and anticipated movement.
 
VVT:

Are the noises a fluctuation in price?

There are different theories about the forerunner of a reversal, one of them is an intense movement in one direction and immediately in the opposite direction, the so-called reversal bar. As for swings or consolidations, that is also sometimes a forerunner of reversal.

By level I meant the frequency of its occurrence. Noise is essentially a period of time when you cannot predict the direction of the price.
 
CHINGIZ MUSTAFAEV:
By level I meant the frequency of its occurrence. Noise is essentially a period of time when price direction cannot be predicted. in other words, consolidation.

That is, consolidation is when a trend gathers strength and the larger it is, the more intense the trend will be, in my opinion. But predicting the direction of the trend is a moot point...

 
VVT:

That is, consolidation is when a trend gathers strength and the bigger it is, the more intense the trend will be, in my opinion. But predicting the direction of the trend is a moot point...

No. Everything about the phrases testing levels, gaining strength, etc. is essentially a play on the imagination, there is no such thing. There is just when price fluctuates and when it moves impulsively. When the price hesitates, which can be anything, you cannot predict the price movement, all you can say is that after the impulse there will be consolidation, after the consolidation there will be impulse and that's it.
 
I'm actually more interested in whether there are any people here who have figured out how and calculated the statistics? Who has taken events and calculated over 10 years for example where does the probability "look" over a long period of time?
 
CHINGIZ MUSTAFAEV:
No. Everything about the phrases testing levels, gaining strength, etc. is essentially a play on the imagination, there is no such thing. There is just when the price fluctuates and when it moves impulsively. When the price hesitates, which can be anything, you cannot predict the price movement, all you can say is that after the impulse there will be consolidation, after the consolidation there will be impulse and that is it.

A bar game where traders drink) When the gas is turned off, the cutlet keeps sizzling. Why. Because of inertia. And that's the right answer. Although we do change the level of gas in a single moment. Gas is a global parameter, molecules are traders)

 
CHINGIZ MUSTAFAEV:
No. Everything about the phrases testing levels, gaining strength etc. is essentially a play on the imagination, there is nothing like that. There is just when the price fluctuates and when it moves impulsively. When it fluctuates, which could be anything, you cannot predict the price movement.

Mmm, I'm not in favour of levels either, momentum is a directional movement, i.e. a trend, oscillation is a consolidation when it's better to wait :) It's a matter of predicting

1...193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207...306
New comment
Reason: