Geometric approach in price forecasting - page 4
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In order to avoid abstraction we need to derive a formula. Actually we have everything for that. There is a trend line that on each bar has a static increment calculated from the first momentum available. There is a number of the last bar that touches this trend line. Knowing the number of bars from the extremum to the trend line and the size of the trend line increment, a forecasted price level can be calculated.
That's right! But which of these levels is true??? There can be, for example, 10 of them (the price does not stand still), which of them are true? From which of them the price will bounce? From which of the 10 the price will reverse? That is the abstraction ...
It is precisely these questions about veracity that hint at the fact that a true prediction must be confirmed by both price and time. This is purely my personal opinion.
Well here's method number two!
Looking forward to constructive criticism ... :)
Good afternoon!
I have read this Mikula, as well as other works, including those by Gunn (and almost in the original, translated by Hierzik, etc.) ...
What is the point of using the square 9 (as well as 4, 12, 24 and other heresies)? It's a definition of support/resistance levels! How is it done? Correctly you wrote "... We take the maximum ...", i.e. the calculation is performed from some extremum, which is kind of a 100% reversal point. Then it is calculated in what corner of the square the level is located and other near diagonals are identified. The system proposed by Yeremeev works in a similar way. It also calculates levels starting from an extremum, but with the use of coefficients determined using the price motion chart of a specific symbol (I can give more details for those who are interested).
But here is the main question - how do you know that this reference extremum is a global one? I'm not sure it is!!!
The method I suggest is good as its prediction for a local movement - a possible reversal (just a local one) appears, we have calculated the first impulse, predicted a possible movement - the movement has worked out, that's all! We are further waiting for a possible reversal. Each movement is unique! And the forecast is being made and corrected in the process of price movement - right here, right now.
Now about the theory of Gann: He's determined everything normally, his approaches to trading are unique in their kind, but they are outdated and they should be adapted to reality - I can even tell a little about it, I've even written recently a post about the fluctuation of prices and the use of the simplest neural network to predict this very fluctuation. By the way, just using his approach to identify small, intermediate and major trends helped me to avoid abstract determination of the reversal according to method #2, which I haven't told you about yet ... :):):)
Regards, RomFil.
I'm currently rewriting something on Gunn, if it wasn't for your thread I probably wouldn't have come back to this thread. I will read your thread, I personally am interested in your thoughts, I downloaded some yesterday, I need to digest it first.
Good time dear forum users!
Some time ago while studying the pricing and price movements of financial instruments on the Forex market I came across an expression like "... the price draws its future...". Like most "important" information it wasn't even close to my ears, but after I found some regularities in predicting of price movement, or more precisely, determination of possible goals of this movement, I remembered it and I want to say that it makes sense. And I want to share the patterns I've found with you for free. In my humble opinion, these patterns will allow you to get as much as you want from the market, of course, within reasonable limits.
Since I don't have rights to upload images yet, I have written everything in the attached file with screenshots. As the opportunity to post pictures, the entire text can be placed here - without pictures text uninformative. Please to admins of this resource - if not difficult to give appropriate rights on the pictures.
Sincerely, RomFil
Colleague, don't consider it skepticism, but a question - I got into your method #1, can you explain what is the meaning of taking the square from the pulse size? I feel that there is something, but I can't grasp it, either I don't understand, or you don't understand.
Colleague, don't consider me sceptical, but a question - I got into your method#1, can you explain what is the meaning of taking the square from the pulse size? I feel there is something, but I can't grasp it, either I don't get it or you don't get it.
Good afternoon, I can't explain it to you ... :) I have tried to think about it as you have, but all thoughts will be pulled behind my ears ... I have noticed a pattern in the method and shared it ... As I understand it, you are convinced of its work but can't understand why it works - believe me, I can't either ... :) But it does work, yes not always, but statistically in quite a higher percentage of yes's than no's.
In this thread Martin CHEguevara said:"Your charting system is based on the propertyof price to form a flat naturally by reducing the intensity of crossing highs/minimums or as in your case increasing the time of crossing extrema."
... ask him a question ... :)
Here's another suggestion from one of the adepts of my method:"Why do gann angles work? Because it's the angular coefficient of a derived function.The price graph is the graph of a derived function."
That's all I know ...
Sincerely, RomFil
Here is another suggestion from one of the adherents of my method: " Why do Gann angles work? Because it is the angular coefficient of a derived function. The price graph is the graph of the derived function."
Gunn angles work because the asset has natural limits to price change. By the way, it is much easier to explain with currencies than with stocks. If a currency moves in one direction for a couple of days, say 1%, then the national regulator will kick the beneficiaries in the butt, throw in credits, penalties, rates and interventions :-)
But on the condition that he is not the mastermind of the move.
It's more complicated about stocks - as long as the price fluctuates predictably from N to K or so, then liquidity is OK and there is no panic or chain reactions.
the market stabilises when it returns to its previous tangents - investors calm down and stop urgently dumping volumes, speculators stop building up stocks for the next salvo
angles are a good, cool thing - only up/down they are traditionally 50/50 without other information :-)