From practice to theory and back to practice - page 8

 
Aleksandr Volotko:

Nothing to apply yet ) Once we have a couple of such stops relative to profit, then we'll apply them ) And then we will multiply it by long term. In general, it is not difficult to simulate.

So shit, take your old system, before portfolios. You sometimes thought the system was cool. Run it through and identify the drawbacks possible for this system.
 

A word of caution: he who has found the grail - he will not stop - and will continue to search for grails - it is a single ticket - and there is no end in sight...


Concerning tp/sel ratios: it seems obvious that systems with tp>sl ratios work mainly with increasing volatility (in other words, buying volatility), while Anatoly the Prophet, on the contrary, is selling volatility (which is easy to see from deal history) and has no stop [muffled sardonic chuckle]...

 
Aleksandr Volotko:
Will there be a profit? (I don't remember whose, but I think it's Drimmer's.

Yes, that's right, in proper execution the phrase should be repeated three times (the magic number in Kabbalah) with different variations:

-- is there gonna be a profit?

-- what about the profits?

-- worried about the profits, what about the profits?

 
One way or another, traders' battles are based on statistical parameters - too small a stop - will be frequently executed and slowly closed, too large a stop - will work up to a series of rebound movements, a stop here can be understood as a single deal or a series (trading cycle), the same way with taking a take based on distribution characteristics can be approximate law of take profitability of a given value within a limited time, of course there is no special secret and it can be easily modeled. then it would be logical to conclude that volatility changes so stop-take sizes should also be adjusted for volatility, transforming points into thalers and inversely proportional volume for (almost) fixed risk per trade ... the horror and gloom is that the variability of the trend resistance does not allow to work with the same parameters all the time and in general it would be too easy and then no one would work in factories if one could so easily pick fixed parameters for good... Many traders despaired and left this industry, realizing that even filtering efforts usually don't increase profitability significantly, and in general it's hard to distinguish such a raise from accidents... in fact you can't even tell what win rate is average because it always fluctuates, that's the nature of market and therefore something stronger and more powerful should be opposed than a naive statistics game... it should be a set of conditions allowing semantically separating one class of states/situations from others in order to distinguish (categorise) the current state and estimate the probability of transition to the next more probable state... but it's still easier to just go to the factory...
 
By choosing the amount of risk per trade the trader chooses how he will lose - quickly or slowly... trades can be packaged in series (consecutive or even separated by time) these series can be analyzed as large deals and even meta-optimization by series, for example, there is a well-known approach when a trader decides to trade maximally aggressively but not to lose very quickly expecting nevertheless to manage to earn x2, x3, x4 etc. before losing single capital, in this case this optimization will not differ from usual numerical optimization, just deals will consist of several... Here it is worth mentioning LSPM methodology (leverage space portfolio model), which is a generalization of risk measure optimization for systems portfolio according to TWR terminal return... However, very few people were able to implement this approach in practice, and those who have tried it carefully conceal the results...
 
transcendreamer:
A trader who chooses the amount of risk of a deal, chooses how he will lose - quickly or slowly ... trades can be packaged in series (consecutive or even separated by time). These series can be analyzed as large deals and even be meta-optimization by series. For example, a well-known approach when a trader decides to trade maximally aggressively without rapidly losing a profit calculating nevertheless that he will manage to earn x2, x3, x4, etc. before losing a single capital. In this case this optimization will not differ from ordinary numerical optimization, but transactions will consist of several losing orders here it is worth mentioning LSPM methodology (leverage space portfolio model), which is a generalization of risk measure optimization for systems portfolio according to TWR terminal return... However, very few people were able to implement this approach in practice, and those who have tried it carefully hide the results...

famously... I've never come across such intelligent speeches before... you could say I've reasoned about myself somewhere too, but I couldn't express it... You didn't happen to be from that "Black Box" that the famous billionaire trader in the States, I forget his last name, but to philosophize like that on this forum is worth a lot....thanks a lot for the science... I just read it like a Shakespearean poem....yes, you have just an immeasurable talent...

I myself think that random this non-random process should be beaten with a mirror anti-randomness... except it is not given to humans, a man strives for regularity to harmony, to the golden ratio... and that is where to find harmony in this chaos...

 
transcendreamer:
When choosing the amount of risk per transaction, trader chooses how he will lose - quickly or slowly ... trades can be packaged in series (consecutive or even separated by time). These series can be analyzed as large deals and even be meta-optimization by series. For example, an approach is known when a trader decides to trade maximally aggressively without rapidly losing a profit expecting nevertheless to manage to earn x2, x3, x4, etc. before losing a single capital. In this case such optimization will not differ from ordinary numerical optimization, but transactions will consist of several proportions. here it is worth mentioning LSPM methodology (leverage space portfolio model), which is a generalization of risk measure optimization for systems portfolio according to TWR terminal return... However, very few people were able to implement this approach in practice, and those who have tried carefully conceal the results...

In a neighbouring thread they wrote about Yandex Zen, start an account there and post in your own style, you'll find a lot of followers and you'll earn dough, which will soon be worth more than just croutons. You might even quit this lousy business of losing on forex and start earning on something other than forex, you'll forget about this fucking forex like a bad dream and live peacefully, in harmony (at least with yourself) :)

 
Сергей Криушин:

famously... I've never come across such intelligent speeches before... you could say I've reasoned about myself somewhere too, but I couldn't express it... You didn't happen to be from that "Black Box" that the famous billionaire trader in the States, I forget his last name, but to philosophize like that on this forum is worth a lot....thanks a lot for the science....I read it like a Shakespearean poem....yes, you have just an immeasurable talent...

I myself think that this random process should be beaten by a mirror anti-randomness ... except that it is not given to people, a man strives for regularity to harmony, to the golden ratio ... and that's where to find harmony in this chaos ...

Heh, it's not even me, it's the way it goes... and about the theory of mirror anti-randomness maybe if inspiration comes from outer space I'll write a couple of lines too...


Aleksandr Volotko:

There in a nearby thread wrote about Yandex Zen, start an account there and post in your style, you'll find a bunch of followers and you'll get bribes, so you might just begin to grab more than just breadcrumbs. You might even quit this lousy business of losing on Forex and start earning on something other than Forex, you'll forget about this fucking Forex like a bad dream and live peacefully, in harmony (at least with yourself) :)

Yeah, and then everyone will know who's a drifter, no, I'd rather go to a factory...

 

It is one thing to understand the market and another to profit from it.

A trader must have both qualities. If they don't, then it's unequivocally to the factory.

 

Theoretically, these situations are possible:

  • Making profits without understanding the market
  • making profit without understanding the market
  • not making a profit without understanding the market (this is particularly offensive, hehe)
  • not making profit without understanding the market