From theory to practice - page 809
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Martin Cheguevara:
The price cannot go endlessly in either direction, which is what I bounce off of. The more it goes in one direction, the more likely it is that it will go in the other.
You may calculate the range yourself. At a glance, it is more than 3.000 pips, several dozens of sigmas.
Your martingale has one end - the poker. Of course, it may take a few years to get there, and it creates a false illusion of safety and correctness.
p.s. A little knowledge of mathematics obviates the need for illusions in the form of martins, averagers, overshooters, noobs, etc. All of them do not change the MO of the system, only "redistribute" it.
I.e. if there is no real system under a martin, which gives a stable profit at constant sais, it will sooner or later end up as a poker.
In general, in itself a forum oooh very interesting that here is a very mixed continent, and another 10 years, many work to forgive the articles, but this forum is unique and there really is sheer fun: intrigue, adventure, debate, scandal, intellectual fights, brainstorming, even straight from the forum with the posts do exclusive interviews :₽ uuhh! How I like it!:) And then there is the mysterious Robin Hood dispensing algorithms to suffering people so you can get excited)).
Kindergarten, no more)
Calculate the range yourself. At a rough guess, over 3,000 pips, several dozen sigmas.
Your martingale has one end - the poker. Of course, it may take a few years to get there, and it creates a false illusion of safety and correctness.
p.s. A little knowledge of mathematics obviates the need for illusions in the form of martins, averagers, overshooters, noobs, etc. All of them don't change the MO of the system, only "redistribute" it.
I.e. if there is no real system under a martin, which gives a stable profit at a constant saiz - it will sooner or later end up with a poker.
for a hand - black swan
real - 15 cents, the candle shadow is not interesting here
I just wanted to repost the picture :-)
This particular, recent "black-black" swan has been talked about and discussed for a week before. And actually at the very moment - it was a known question "either the franc continues to be pegged to the euro or not".
By the way, the Swan looked exceptionally beautiful in the dynamics. And loud :-)
I just wanted to repost the picture :-)
This particular, recent "black-black" swan had been talked about and discussed for a week before. And in the actual moment - the question "whether the franc will continue to be pegged to the euro or not" was known.
By the way, the Swan looked exceptionally beautiful in the dynamics. And loud :-)
After the event, many people realised that it was an elaborate trap. Many have fallen into it. Will continue to be used in a slightly altered interpretation.
After the event, many realised that there was an elaborate trap. Many fell into it. It will continue to be used in a slightly altered interpretation.
Trap is a buzz word. But the thing about not stepping on the same rake again is that many have learned :-)
The pre-event was interesting and revealing - all "experts" in TA (technical analysis), traditionally gave different forecasts,
On the "foundation" the same in public, but more smoothly and optimistically.
And among themselves "on the sidelines/smoking rooms", they were expecting and fearing trouble.
---
it is just a classic case - the authorities of a key country (after a hearing, as a matter of routine!) are considering a key issue for the euro ( and the currency market in general), but no one was fucking expecting that
"it never happened before and now it's happening again".
Not so. A popular article written by an expert in the field. Mistakes are inevitable and you can't do it without a matstat.
The fact that the radar was working has been recorded. What is the probability that the radar was not working?
Calculate the range yourself. At a rough guess, over 3,000 pips, several dozen sigmas.
Your martingale has one end - the poker. Of course, it may take a few years to get there, and it creates a false illusion of safety and correctness.
p.s. A little knowledge of mathematics obviates the need for illusions in the form of martins, averagers, overshooters, noobs, etc. All of them do not change the MO of the system, only "redistribute" it.
I.e. if there is no real system under a martin, which gives a stable profit at constant sais, it will sooner or later end up as a poker.
Kindergarten, no more)
A radar has been recorded as being in operation. What is the probability that the radar was not operating?
How and by whom is it recorded?