Is any prediction doomed? - page 25
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A prediction and a pattern are different things. And prediction - if two patterns say down and one says up, then you can make a prediction (and try to play it) or wait for all three signals (to trade a pattern, which is also not guaranteed).
No one ever said they were the same thing
This is not a question of the thread, but your personal question. And it has been answered, what you describe as a prediction process is trivial curvafing in a tester, not any search for patterns in the market - and it is doomed.
Once again - you have discovered a pattern in the market that cannot be used to estimate the future price dynamics of an asset. Then how can you use it for trading? How?
The division is very legitimate, usually predictions are made by plumers and few people look for real patterns. It would seem simple, find a good pattern where there are causes and effects of events, and use it. Do not predict - use.
In fact, all this has already been said twice, if understanding is not achieved - there is no point in pounding water in a bucket.
How? How do you use a pattern for trading without predicting the price dynamics of an asset? How to do it?
Once again - you have discovered a pattern in the market that cannot be used to estimate the future price dynamics of an asset...
... At any point in time.
How about this?
Once again - you have discovered a pattern in the market that cannot be used to estimate the future price dynamics of an asset. How then can you use it for trading? How?
Very simple, curvafing is one of those patterns, I just won't do it that's all.
Curvafing is a pattern you discovered in the financial markets? Is TS overfitting a pattern you discovered in the financial markets? It's not a pattern at all - it's a procedure.
And just not using it will automatically help you make money? What kind of nonsense is that?
It (the pattern) has all the answers on how to use it.
Well, yes, that's what I meant to say.
Good closure -- to understand how to look for a pattern, you have to find a pattern. No wonder so many people can't get past it.
What's there to investigate, take it and trade it. (And if it is an omen 55-65% certainty of triggering, something else must be added).
Suppose we've found a pattern in 2008, that it has been profitable to buy EURUSD for the last 8 years. A lot of deals according to some system - the statistics is representative. Does it mean that in next years we should buy EUR as well or it is just an accident based on the global up-trend, which may very well end?
The "take it and trade it" often leads to bad results. The question is how to interpret the statistics correctly, which is often a very difficult task.
is curvafing a pattern you discovered in the financial markets? Is CU overfitting a pattern you discovered in the financial markets? It's not a pattern at all - it's a procedure.
And just NOT using it will automatically help you make money? What kind of nonsense is that?