Is any prediction doomed? - page 22
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Can this "very high probability" be calculated?
No, you can't. Only estimate in fuzzy categories. So?
No, you can't. Only estimate in fuzzy categories. So?
If we're talking about "today", yes, it's spreading.
I'm in excess of 30 Celsius right now. And the components... if something bursts or slips, it'll empty the tank even faster.
What's the tank's job? To irrigate? I mean, if the hose bursts, something remains unwatered? And the tank empties. You see, yes, there's a substitution of notions. You come and look, the tank is empty, you think it's watered but it's not. ;)
Is it similar to what traders do? They look at the screen, think (predict) - the price will go up, and then, bam, someone's brains start to flow, figuratively speaking.
Well, I have a semester, too, and it's computer science...
P.S. Do you guys want to talk about prediction in detail? This is an off-topic. It's about forecasting!
Well, it is directly relevant to the street crossing in question. You cannot calculate and therefore predict using exact figures, but you can cross the road. A paradox? No, the limitations of mathematical methods for systems slightly more complex than coins.
You're finally getting it! Once again I repeat my answer to your question from five pages ago:
"3*18 again! You have a twisted understanding of the theorem, even though you are a former mathematician.
Of course it's easier to calculate probabilities in financial markets than it is to calculate the probability of yourself going through a transition!
You can run your TS an infinite number of times on the tester on past data as far back as you want and get probability estimates!
But your beloved self how? Run it through the crossroads enough times for statistics? Of course you can, but you must understand that at least one unfavourable outcome in the experiment and it will have to be interrupted forever...".
Well, this is directly relevant to the street crossing under discussion. You cannot calculate and therefore predict using exact numbers, but you can cross the road. A paradox? No, the limitations of mathematical methods for systems slightly more complex than coins.
Now do you finally get it? After all, the financial markets use exact numbers! Well, do you understand?
After all, you can't run the tank's behaviour on history 1000 times and assess the numerical probability that the tank will break down! But in the financial markets you can! There is a history tester. You can even build a generator of quotes history with the Monte Carlo method.
Do you finally get it now? After all, the financial markets use precise figures! Okay?
Um... what are the exact numbers there?
Quotes. The prices of the asset. And deterministic history
Quotes. The price of the asset. And deterministic history.
What is their accuracy? The number of decimal places. So a dtz giving five digits is much more accurate than cents on the stocks?
What about a deterministic drawn history?