Where is the line between fitting and actual patterns? - page 2
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Most patterns are inextricably linked to the analysis of some technical indicators, which in turn are inextricably linked to their internal parameters. Further, as a result of this analysis, most TS have a certain threshold of triggering, which in fact actually signals the presence of a found pattern. So the fit is such found parameters of these indicators and threshold of triggering that will not be profitable in the future.
You are right, that's why I do the analysis of probabilistic processes - fractal analysis, the fractal number always changes, maybe I am wrong but the strong moves occur at low fractal number and the technical indicators work, but they are useless in terms of automatic trading but they help an experienced trader to understand where the market is now
I would put it this way, based on practicality and expediency )))) -
There is some possibility in the market for our developed TS to make some real, non-limit profit, like some kind of "efficiency" of the market when this TS works. For example, 10% per week. Using the data we know, we can adjust any TS to the known data in such a way, that our TS on the last data will bring, for example, 1000% of profit per week, which is much higher than the real values. On the real market, which is unknown to us, it is impossible to obtain the same profit during the operation of our TS. Correspondingly, it is a fitting)))
Where is the line between fitting and real patterns?
Looking at the market we see that possibly existing patterns cannot be parametrically constant. Every system has a level of fit and a level of regularity of one or more events.
And the preponderance towards the second level is responsible for the rationality of the trading idea itself.
Thinking abstractly. The thoughts of others will be of interest.
First of all we should "give" more freedom to the selected parameters, i.e. the amount of change for one and the same tool, without breaking the mould of course, in order to fully work out the found pattern, i.e. When optimizing on the history, the step of parameter changes should be "adequate", so the adjustment is excluded at a small step, thereby at an "average" step we select a flat set of parameters for a particular TS, depending on the "working off" of a particular market pattern. Look here (to continue the topic, to the question of "levels of fitting and levels of regularities of one or more events") - https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/107064
Where is the line between fitting and real patterns?
Looking at the market we see that possibly existing patterns cannot be parametrically constant. Every system has a level of fit and a level of regularity of one or more events.
And the preponderance towards the second level is responsible for the rationality of the trading idea itself.
Thinking abstractly. The thoughts of others will be of interest.
- exiting the market on a reverse entry signal
Exiting the market can be a separate signal completely unrelated to the entry signal. The objective is not to predict absolutely all market movements, but to make money. It is impossible to predict absolutely all market moves, so the system should not always work.
The exit signal indicates only the end of the prediction, but not the beginning of the next prediction.
The exit signal only indicates the end of the prediction, not the start of the next prediction.
You've basically repeated my thesis, I'm not talking about a reversal TS - where the end of the BUY signal is the beginning of the SELL signal ;)
Many technical indicators work at their extremes - levels, everything between the levels is not an entry signal into the market
Where is the line between fitting and real patterns?
Looking at the market we see that possibly existing patterns cannot be parametrically constant. Every system has a level of fit and a level of regularity of one or more events.
And the preponderance towards the second level is responsible for the rationality of the trading idea itself.
Thinking abstractly. The thoughts of others will be of interest.
Then how do we determine that the cc is not junk?
1) Forward testing?
2) Observations.
3)...
3. How the target function changes as a function of a particular option. The test period is also one such option.
paukas: Любая ТС и есть самая настоящая подгонка. Практически все.
I don't understand, how do you trade if not by TS? Randomly? So that's a TS too ))))
I don't understand, how do you trade if not by TS? Randomly? That's a TS too ))))