Where is the line between fitting and actual patterns?

[Alexandr]

Where is the line between fitting and real patterns?

Looking at the market we see that possibly existing patterns cannot be parametrically constant. Every system has a level of fit and a level of regularity of one or more events.

And the preponderance towards the second level is responsible for the rationality of the trading idea itself.

Thinking abstractly. The thoughts of others will be of interest.

[Леонид]

The eternal question......))

[Alexandr]

Then how do we determine that the cc is not junk?

1) Forward testing?

2) Observations.

3)...

[Леонид]

1. Forward

2. Observing real parameters in the past and comparing them with those found on the forward.

3. Not exceeding the real possible profitability.

[Igor Makanu]

Jingo:

real patterns

Have you found real patterns? then why do you need a fitting? most likely a fitting to stories gives you hope that there are patterns ;)

Jingo:

Then how do we determine that the TS is not rubbish?

- trade with a fixed lot

- number of deals on the history should be large

- exiting the market on a reverse entry signal

- Positive balance, profits should be fixed in time

If you achieve this, then add MM and you have a profitable system

[richie]

Jingo: Looking at the market we see that perhaps the existing patterns cannot be parametrically constant.

Lawfulness is a necessary, essential, constantly recurring relationship of phenomena (from the wiki). A pattern always works. If it does not work even once, it is no longer a pattern, but an illusion.

.

Besides, it is necessary to always consider the price of a pattern through the prism of making a profit. There are many regularities in the market which, in the light of profit, produce no result. At the same time, some clever people shove these "regularities" in the brains of beginner traders as great achievements of technical analysis.

[igor]

Jingo:

Then how do we determine that the cc is not junk?

1) Forward testing?

2) Observations.

3)...

Testing on a demo (micro) account for some time (1-6 months), as long as it is not a speed-related job.

[Alexandr]

I guess I'll say it right, too:

That the market is more of a temporary pattern, shaped by the constant variability of the market and some constitutive interrelationship of phenomena.

[Леонид]

Richie:

IgorM:

Most of the patterns are inextricably linked to the analysis of some technical indicators, which in turn are inextricably linked to their internal parameters. Further, as a result of this analysis, most TS have some threshold of triggering, which in fact actually signals the presence of a found pattern. So the fitting is such found parameters of these indicators and triggering threshold that will not bring profit in the future though this found pattern will bring profit in the past.

[Alexandr]

Jingo:

The market is often in a buoyant uncertainty after rallies or corrections of different forces.

I think the principles of entry and exit should be different altogether.

[Andrey Dik]

Jingo:

I guess I'll say it right, too:

That the market is more of a temporary pattern, shaped by the constant variability of the market and some constitutive interrelationship of phenomena.

And what about patterns flowing smoothly into one another? On the surface it looks like chaos, or rather a random process. Is it not because we try to measure the wriggling terrarium with a tailor's meter, which is not a flexible meter at all? It follows that the regularities are not temporary, they are constant. In the sense that there are always regularities, but is it possible to enter the same river twice?