A big truth about forex - page 11

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stochatic

hi mladen

is this stochastic on chart on your last chart setup you showed in this thread............?

tahnks

lodol

 

Lodol, since this is a direct answer to your post, please do not misunderstand my answer, but that goes to anyone reading this answer too :

It is not "stochastic on chart". I am afraid that things are not that simple when it comes to trying to find reliable ways

________________________________________________________________
I would like to talk about something else : I learned a lot on this forum and I hope that I have "payed" for the knowledge found here ("payed" in terms of posting and "giving" something in return) I am not on a war path to enforce reciprocity (not all the members are coders - that would be absurd to expect) but I think that I earned a right to "draw a line" somewhere.

There are some things that I am not going to post and share.

Not because of "secrecy".

Neither because of some kind of anger.

Some of the things (pictures of them) are for example part of packages I had worked on for quite some time and I am not going to give that work of mine away. In a world where indicators that are coded wrongly are called and sold as wonder indicators, or where what is made public is renamed and sold as something else, or where "decompilers" are even proud of what they are doing (decompiling program can be downloaded from sites now for free, "learning" to use them takes about 30 seconds, and they call it a knowledge. btw: I never understood what is the thrill in doing it (how can that thing substitute the thrill of learning remains a mystery to me)) I am simply not going to give some things away

That is all

________________________________________________________________

So please, no more PMs saying "send it just to me I promise I will not give it to anybody else". I even had "arm twisting" cases : "either you give it to me or I am going to expose you" whatever "expose" mean in those twisted minds. Keep messages like that for yourself. We live in a world where rules are more or less known, so please, let all of us obey them or at least pretend that we are obeying them

Come to thinking again, maybe PM's like that are the "big truth about forex". That would explain the 95% (when knowledge is worthless, it is normal to know nothing)

________________________________________________________________

regards

mladen

lodol2:
hi mladen

is this stochastic on chart on your last chart setup you showed in this thread............?

tahnks

lodol
 

hi

hi mladen

thanks for clarifying

of course i understand..............

regards lodol

 
mladen:
Years and years ago, a man called Alan Turing had proved that if a machine could process 3 states (yes,no and or) it could solve any problem in finite time.

Situation is somewhat similar in forex (I am saying only forex because in forex you can not have a valueless peace of paper in your hand - a currency pair either has some value or that currency pair does not exist) Trends can be up, down and sideways. All of them are trends. I wish it was sideways all the time (no freaking way to loose in a sideway market) but it is not. But also there are some good ways to detect either of these (some of them even posted on TSD by me)

Is it trending : I use something like this as my secondary setup. Decision if it is showing trends I leave to anyone looking at the attached picture

PS: the picture is wide on purpose, to show more data

hi Mladene

may i ask you, if you use the stdev or stderr for your channel?...

your channel reminds me a little bit on the Kirshenbaum ***...:)

regards

Cado

uups!...sorry!...

i didn't know what is "guessing game" meaning...now i translated this - me and my awfull english...

sorry again...

 

Yes Forex is not a straight moving market but it can be called as a market with a random movements. You can predict but you can't be to your point. you have to go for the indicators and analyze the trends of the market.

 

mladen;

What you have said below is as I feel too, however, your use of english is better then mine. I have over the years done alot of coding in MT that have taken me a lot of time to develope. I dont post much for the reasons you stated below. I too have gotten PMs that boarder on verbal assualt.

I do have a question of you. In one of your above post you stated that the markets are non random, or at least that is what I was lead to believe. If the markets are non random, how to you use that imformation? I mean can you find the non random price movement and use it to profit?

I am under the beleive that time series are random, not so much as to control my trading. I assume randomness as that assumtion will releave me of trying to predict anything, or bias my judgment in any way. My Methods are primarily based on price cycles and looking for the trend with in them. These cycles exist in both random and non random price series, therefor, it fit me will. By the way most people that use cycles do so in a predictive way, that is, if the last cycle was 14 days (bars) the next one will be the same and they try to use them as a predictive tool. I on the other hand donot assume that the last primary cycle will in any way effect the next, I derive my cycles lengths for the price series as it unfolds. Most make cycle analysis too complicated and restrictive for my liking.

Random or non random has no effect on my trading, I assume random as it fits my beleif structure better. I would like to know your thoughs on the matter.

I do have a lot of respect for your work and beleive that you have given much more then you have received for this forum. Your post makes people stop and think and thinking is the foundation of learning.

Keit

mladen:
Lodol, since this is a direct answer to your post, please do not misunderstand my answer, but that goes to anyone reading this answer too :

It is not "stochastic on chart". I am afraid that things are not that simple when it comes to trying to find reliable ways

________________________________________________________________

I would like to talk about something else : I learned a lot on this forum and I hope that I have "payed" for the knowledge found here ("payed" in terms of posting and "giving" something in return) I am not on a war path to enforce reciprocity (not all the members are coders - that would be absurd to expect) but I think that I earned a right to "draw a line" somewhere.

There are some things that I am not going to post and share.

Not because of "secrecy".

Neither because of some kind of anger.

Some of the things (pictures of them) are for example part of packages I had worked on for quite some time and I am not going to give that work of mine away. In a world where indicators that are coded wrongly are called and sold as wonder indicators, or where what is made public is renamed and sold as something else, or where "decompilers" are even proud of what they are doing (decompiling program can be downloaded from sites now for free, "learning" to use them takes about 30 seconds, and they call it a knowledge. btw: I never understood what is the thrill in doing it (how can that thing substitute the thrill of learning remains a mystery to me)) I am simply not going to give some things away

That is all

________________________________________________________________

So please, no more PMs saying "send it just to me I promise I will not give it to anybody else". I even had "arm twisting" cases : "either you give it to me or I am going to expose you" whatever "expose" mean in those twisted minds. Keep messages like that for yourself. We live in a world where rules are more or less known, so please, let all of us obey them or at least pretend that we are obeying them

Come to thinking again, maybe PM's like that are the "big truth about forex". That would explain the 95% (when knowledge is worthless, it is normal to know nothing)

________________________________________________________________

regards

mladen
 

...

Keit, we actually agree more than it seems at first glance:
A long time ago I read a study by Van Tharp institute of a "coin toss" way of trading. The short version goes like this : entries were simply decided by a coin toss. On a clean "coin toss strategy" (just entries decided on a coin toss) it was a loosing one. By simply adding a trailing stop it became a "money earning one". So at least the entry part can be random as hell and with a trick or too, the randomness of it becomes meaningless
The predicting part (and some of the reasons why I think trends do exist) :
Studies of different extrapolation methods showed that a simple EMA extrapolation is "good for" more than 90% for 1 bar prediction (in order to avoid any confusion with anybody, I repeat : it is a 1 (one) bar prediction)

Serious contemporary stochastic process studies stand at about 70% predictability.

One more reason is the indicator on the picture from the original post of mine that you refer too : it never draws current bar - it always predicts current bar (no, it is not that EMA ). Meaning it never calculates current values. Knowing that, you must agree that results of it are rather good. Logic is simple : if we are trying to predict anyway, why not make an indicator do the job. It is just as good as staring at something and trying to figure out what is going to be

My hidden reason for trying to find a trend is simple : with proper MM one can do it the "coin toss" way, but I simply do not have the patience to wait in cases where the entry is "too random".

Once when we take into account inertia (funny place to use it, but since the people (and the money itself) do tend to be inert, even a simple momentum indicator can give you a feeling and help in determining the inertia (and hence the trend))

________________________________________________________________

Trending or not, the first step is still the first one (and people really do tend to forget it) : how many times have we heard the 1% rule and how many times we were tempted to enter more? Also, do not expect to be able to find a trend on a symbol whose list of "major volume contributors" consist of Soros and ... Soros. That is the main reason for me to trade EURUSD only

________________________________________________________________

Not sure if this post of mine have any meaning at all, but, when now days some "math wizards" are claiming to be hedge fund consultants and then they claim that MM has no meaning at all, I don't think this post has less meaning

regards

mladen

cockeyedcowboy:
mladen;

What you have said below is as I feel too, however, your use of english is better then mine. I have over the years done alot of coding in MT that have taken me a lot of time to develope. I dont post much for the reasons you stated below. I too have gotten PMs that boarder on verbal assualt.

I do have a question of you. In one of your above post you stated that the markets are non random, or at least that is what I was lead to believe. If the markets are non random, how to you use that imformation? I mean can you find the non random price movement and use it to profit?

I am under the beleive that time series are random, not so much as to control my trading. I assume randomness as that assumtion will releave me of trying to predict anything, or bias my judgment in any way. My Methods are primarily based on price cycles and looking for the trend with in them. These cycles exist in both random and non random price series, therefor, it fit me will. By the way most people that use cycles do so in a predictive way, that is, if the last cycle was 14 days (bars) the next one will be the same and they try to use them as a predictive tool. I on the other hand donot assume that the last primary cycle will in any way effect the next, I derive my cycles lengths for the price series as it unfolds. Most make cycle analysis too complicated and restrictive for my liking.

Random or non random has no effect on my trading, I assume random as it fits my beleif structure better. I would like to know your thoughs on the matter.

I do have a lot of respect for your work and beleive that you have given much more then you have received for this forum. Your post makes people stop and think and thinking is the foundation of learning.

Keit
 

hi

The basic question what is the trend ?

here I attached my simple ebook define about what trend is , hope we can recognize the pattern

===================

Forex Indicators Collection

Files:
trend.zip  90 kb
 

mladen,

If the words random and non random were taken out of the discussion, there would be little difference in our thinking. Trends exist in most time series and I use cycles ( which contains a momentum calculation ) in the price to determine trending and non trending conditions. Your one bar perdictions is as well not to far from my method of; taken the assumtion that what happen this day (bar) will carry over to the next, till the next bar tells me differently. Your method is more active as mine is more re-active.

Keit

 

prasxz,

From reading your pdf, you can change the wording to price cycles were the cycle forms a higher low in an uptrend or an lower low in a down trend. This is basic. If one views what you say as being cycles and if one can make the determination between what the Primary cycles are then that would dictate the Primary trend contained within the data. However, your method contains a few flaws. You can not use all lower lows or higher lows in determining the primary trend. There is an indicator that uses fractionals to determine trends it is not very useful for one reason, It comingles the primary trend with the secondary and minor trend points. The same as your suggesting. When you state that a break in your trend line is the end to the current trend, this may not be so if that break is a break of the minor or secondary cycles bottoms (trend). When you have an overheated market price tends to get ahead of the primary trend and forms lesser cycles or trends. a break of a lesser trend only means a reversion back to the primary trend not a reveasal of the trend itself. One needs to be able to distingues between the different cycles contained within the data. There is more then one cycle contained within.

Think of this; If price is supper heated and over extended, that is in a minor cycle formation Minor trend line, That minor trend when broken must revert back to the primary trend cycle will that primary trend hold one can not tell with the brake of the minor trend. However, one will know how far away the primary trend is, That distance will give you the ability to exploit it in a countertrend position back to the primary trend.

Also the brake of the primary trend does not mean a trend reversal it could be the start of a non trending period. Your method dosenot indicate how to determine this. If one views the different cycles one can see when price is in a non trending mode simply because all the cycles will be one in the same. That is the primary, secondary and minor cyces will be on top of one another. Where one will think that only one cycle period exist.

This is not ment to be negitive but to bring out points that you need to consider in your logic. Hope it helps.

Keit

prasxz:
The basic question what is the trend ?

here I attached my simple ebook define about what trend is , hope we can recognize the pattern

===================

Forex Indicators Collection
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