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Where is the line between fitting and actual patterns? - page 7

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You look at the price chart and see the price of a financial instrument, for example, falling. This clearly indicates that someone is dumping the asset. You short and earn on it as well. Where is the insider?
alexx_v:
You look at the price chart and see the price of some financial instrument, for example, falling. This clearly shows that someone is losing an asset. You short and earn on it as well. Where is the insider?

Yeah, you short it and whoever's been dumping here starts buying it back. ;))

There is no insider and there is no profit. The conclusion is a fit.

[Deleted]
In general, the correct answer to the topic question is: the line is not between, it is away.
even any scientific theory is a fit with observations. The line between good and bad theory is practical utility. In our case, real, stable profits)))
Avals:
even any scientific theory is a fit with observations. The line between good and bad theory is practical utility. In our case, real, stable profits)))
That's how it works. As long as you don't test it, you won't understand. If the system worked, it means it's real, but if it failed, it means it's a shitty adjustment :)))

It is easier to look for patterns if the speed of price movement is taken into account, but there are several problems:

- what to take as a reference point (zero/start);

- what to take as a unit of time (second/minute/tick/bar);

if there are methods of calculation of speed and correlation of indicator parameters depending on speed, i would like to know more

IgorM:

It is easier to look for patterns if the speed of price movement is taken into account, but there are several problems:

- what to take as a reference point (zero/start);

- what to take as a unit of time (second/minute/tick/bar);

if there are methods of calculation of speed and correlation of indicator parameters depending on speed, I would like to know more

The report point can be, for example, the beginning of the day. Or the previous extremum.

There is nothing to catch on seconds, so consider one-hour bars, at least they all start at the same time.

IgorM:

It is easier to look for patterns if the speed of price movement is taken into account, but there are several problems:

- what to take as a reference point (zero/start);

- what to take as a unit of time (second/minute/tick/bar);

if there are methods of calculating speed and matching indicator parameters depending on the speed, I would like to know more

This is called the Buridan donkey problem.

Irrespective of what to take as a reference point or unit of time, the real problem is contained in your too categorical statement that supposedly: "patterns are easier to find if you consider the speed of price movement".

paukas:

The report point can be, for example, the beginning of the day. Or the previous extremum.

There is nothing to catch on seconds, so let's consider hourly bars, at least they all start at the same time.


Let's try to discuss the best way to measure the price speed and the best way to take it as a starting point, maybe this topic will be helpful.

I tend to believe it is better to take any extremum, and it should be present at several TFs, at least at M1-H1 interval

Reshetov:

This is called the Buridan donkey problem.

Irrespective of what to take as a reference point or a unit of time, the real problem is in your too categorical statement that supposedly "the patterns are easier to find if you consider the speed of price movement".


The pattern is the same: price goes down first and then up, knowing the unit of speed, you can make assumptions about the strength of the impulse or if you want, the trend forecast
IgorM:


knowing the unit of velocity, you can make assumptions about the strength of momentum or, if you like, trend projections

You can make unproven assumptions, i.e. guesswork, all your life. Unlike nerds, traders need to make money, not make assumptions. And to make sure that the TS is adequate, it is necessary and sufficient to run the forwards on it.
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