Zero sample correlation does not necessarily mean there is no linear relationship - page 33
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Well here again it is simple. Since AUDUSD and NZDUSD are highly correlated, the simplest conclusion is that AUDNZD is "returnable" or "flat".
For real trading this is not applicable for two reasons:
1. global (long term) - you abstract away from the question of why the correlation between the two currencies changes.
2. local (short-term) - you begin to compete with the supercomputers of banks and hedge funds who use high-frequency trading to catch these patterns in particular. Add to that such tricks as "floating" spreads in real forex.
I don't want to get negative vibes from the discussion by proving, for no good reason, that I am not a camel.
The wording of the 2H rule is mathematically given above. You can check it on all liquid pairs and on SB. I did this before I wrote. Because I check everything and don't take our word for it.
(a) From the fact that some pattern is fulfilled on some BP, and the same pattern exists on SB, does not mean that this series is SB.
b) Market efficiency is understood as its hypothetical property of reflecting all incoming information in price data almost instantaneously and completely. From the fulfillment of this hypothesis would logically follow the fundamental impossibility of any prediction of the development of the situation, accompanied with profit taking, both in the short term and even more so in the long term. The fulfilment of the 2H rule is in no way related to the efficiency/ineffectiveness of the market. On the contrary, its near perfect execution on all liquid pairs coexists admirably with strong evidence of local areas of inefficiency.
The market is efficient when there are no distortions in it.
I don't give a shit about the global reasons for such a high correlation. Although it's no secret that the economic relationship between New Zealand and Australia is highly correlated.
Speaking mate. Cited a video where the high correlation is statistically substantiated. There are 240 frames in the video, where each frame contains 100,000 CCs, i.e. 24 million CC values. If that means nothing to you, then studies like this tell me a lot.
What the hell are you talking about in this case? High-frequency eats up profits where others can't, only on correlations close to unity.
P.S. To the moderators: I use hot words, but this is to give some extra emotional colouring. No disrespect intended in this case.
Well here again it is simple. Since AUDUSD and NZDUSD are highly correlated, the simplest conclusion is that AUDNZD is "return" or "flat".
Maybe, instead of such conclusions, it would be better to look at the AUDNZD chart?
Dear Sir, you are writing nonsense. Check and check again before you state something so confidently.
I don't give a shit about the global reasons for such a high correlation. Although it's no secret that the economic relationship between New Zealand and Australia is highly correlated.
Speaking mate. Cited a video where the high correlation is statistically substantiated. There are 240 frames in the video, where each frame contains 100,000 CCs, i.e. 24 million CC values. If that means nothing to you, then studies like this tell me a lot.
What the hell are you talking about in this case? High-frequency eats up profits where others can't, only on correlations close to one.
P.S. To the moderators: I use hot words, but this is to give some extra emotional colouring. No disrespect intended in this case.
1. That's the problem, you are shitting on the wrong things.
2. High correlation exists between almost all currencies in forex. So what of it? Take NZD and CAD and it is even higher than NZD and AUD. All such studies descend into a search for "leading" and "slave" currencies and end up with nothing.
3. You cited a video showing the change in correlation over time. The rationale for the change in correlation is shat on by you (and for nothing).
4. I'm talking about the high-frequency one, which uses a drop in the modulus of the correlation coefficient in the short term and hypothesises its return to some reasonable value.
Wouldn't you rather look at the AUDNZD chart instead of drawing such conclusions?
What's there to look at? He abstracts from all economic causes! If you listen to him, the AUDNZD chart should go for 50 years in a narrow channel without any trends.
alsu:
Ну, не знаю. Мне процесс установления истины доставляет исключительно положительные эмоции. Я же не пытаюсь наезжать, просто обращаю внимание на необоснованные с моей точки зрения утверждения. Если пишущий их не хочет/не может подкрепить их какими-то выкладками, то для чего писать-то? Для красного словца что ли?
That post was an answer to a question. Research is, indeed, a positive thing. Putting out research, sharing the results - it's tried and tested, it's shit. Because the researcher will be all over the spoils of so called opponents. If you don't understand, don't. I have no desire to prove anything to you. I was in a good mood, I replied to the man.
(a) From the fact that some regularity is fulfilled on some BP, and it also exists on SB, does not mean that this series is SB.
It doesn't. What the fuck are you attributing this to me?
b) Market efficiency is understood as ....
Understood by whom? By you and the majority? I don't give a shit about public opinion. Don't like the word efficiency in my post, put it in quotes: "Efficiency as understood by dick". Was writing a response to the man so that it would be understandable. Not to generate a terminological discussion.
P.S. The hardest part is thinking for yourself.
What's there to look at? He abstracts from all economic causes! If you listen to him, the AUDNZD chart should go 50 years in a narrow channel without any trends.
That's what to watch to see how the AUDNZD actually goes.
What's there to look at? He abstracts from all economic causes! If you listen to him, the AUDNZD chart should go 50 years in a narrow channel without any trends.
hrenfx, do you see the two lines, red and blue? I bring to your attention that the correlation coefficient between them is 1.