Ring
The ring immediately after opening
Ring in 1 hour
Two hours later
First, a question about "equal volumes". Doesn't it bother you, for example, that the point price of different pairs will be different, or maybe you just don't realize it? Therefore the sense of opening with equal lots is not clear. And at your leisure, think about the size of 21 spread and 21 swaps. The value of the bicycle you're inventing will be greatly reduced.
Three hours later
2 Gans-deGlucker: No, I am not confused by the Ring already working, i.e. "hanging" as it should be
"spread size 21" - I've already roughly indicated
"spread size 21" - I've already roughly indicated
Why 21 pairs and not say 28 or 14? Why these particular pairs and not others? One hour two, three...ok, but what happens to the ring in a day, two three etc. Have you observed a "long" history of balance over the ring? Where is the guarantee that the ring, a few minutes after we enter it, will not collapse to the opposite side from the one we want and if we average, it will only make things worse and end up like always?
Also, why do we buy some and sell others and not, for example, all buy or all sell?
No, North, max observed a few hours, and I don't see the point beyond that, as the Ring is only needed as a non-veteran measuring first cycle.
No guarantee yet, observe the behaviour of the Ring, draw conclusions, look for options, then write...
No guarantee yet, observe the behaviour of the Ring, draw conclusions, look for options, then write...
In a slightly fluctuating environment, the ring may be 'balanced', but what happens to it during a strong trend?
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First I'll tell you the purpose, then the idea, and then I'd love to hear your opinions.
The reason is simple - I haven't learned how to make money on the Ring yet and I need some brainstorming.
So.
OBJECTIVE: I, ("naive Chukchi youth"), want to find a sustainable model of behaviour in the market, where a clear set of rules should be followed,
unambiguously leading to a positive result. If you like, this is my vision of the "grail".
New ideas are constantly emerging on the forum about how to look at the market differently - it has already been put to music and listened to this way, etc.
The market can also be measured (may Krylov forgive me for the monkey and the glasses) by "imposing the Ring".
By Ring I mean 21 trades on 21 currency pairs, without stops, with the same volume and at the same (well, there +/-) time:
BUY AUDCAD
BUY AUDUSD
BUY CADCHF
BUY CADJPY
BUY CHFJPY
BUY EURCAD
BUY EURGBP
BUY EURJPY
BUY GBPAUD
BUY GBPCHF
BUY GBPUSD
BUY USDCAD
BUY USDCHF
SELL AUDCHF
SELL AUDJPY
SELL EURAUD
SELL EURCHF
SELL EURUSD
SELL GBPCAD
SELL GBPJPY
SELL USDJPY
The following Ring properties that I know at the moment:
1. The Ring will ALWAYS hang at minus the spread. (+/- a couple of quid due to timing differences in quotes coming in).
2. Any multi-currency portfolio of the above currencies is part of the Ring, but unlike it is not balanced.
3. The Ring can be held as long as desired (if swaps are neglected), without fear of huge losses.
4. Once the Ring is broken, it cannot be repaired.
5. Removal of one currency pair from the Ring is equal to opening a trade in this currency pair, the only difference being that spreads are paid for 20
other trades.
6. Only the RELATIVE method (comparison with each other) is applicable for analyzing behaviour of currency pairs in the Ring.
7. The spread of pairs in the Ring is finite, returnable and (I repeat) balanced.
The idea was suggested by garden in the non-veteran thread, I probably wouldn't have thought of it myself, to loop the orders against each other so that the ring ALWAYS
hangs level =-Spread.
That's what ALWAYS got me going on further research...
If there's a rule, or pattern, that works ALWAYS, so why not put it to work? Isn't there an ironclad
rule that each of us is in search of?
THE IDEA:
1) use a ring of trades in a demo as an indicator of the current state (movement) of the market relative to a certain period of
time... Holy shit... said...
well, for example, the ring in an hour after it was opened was quantitatively in the ratio of 86% of negative orders and 14% of positive ones,
and after an hour (two, three...) it MUST level off at least to -52%/+48%, i.e. (-11)/(+10) orders.
2) really TRADING the Ring, deliberately entering paltry losses (with 0,1 lot and leverage 1:200, it will be about -118$) c
aim to catch the quantitative imbalance of positive and negative deals (for example (-14)/(+7)), and then break
Ring, -
a) by locking (or closing) the positive and doubling (tripling, ....) negative ones in expectation of a return to the price (towards the price) of most pairs opening;
b) by putting a stop on negative ones and a trawl on positive ones;
c), d), e), etc. I would be glad to hear from you, dear colleagues...
I took "snapshots" of the Ring just after it opened, one hour, two and three hours later, plotting a histogram in Excel of the current order balance.
In the right column they are the same, but sorted in ascending order.