Price movements can be predicted ! - page 16
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Sergei, one more thing: Since safety is paramount, yet another parameter is also important to me. It's a stop loss from the opening price. A prediction without SL or SL=500 is definitely not impressive, agree, as most traders here do not have very large deposits.
The prediction is made at a time when in the lowest cycle, as in the two above, the second wave has formed and the third wave is starting to form.
It may happen, and it often happens, like now, for example on the New Zealand and Japanese, that the third wave in the youngest cycle has not really started yet,
i.e., what we took as the beginning of the third wave is still the second wave. In this case, the end of the second wave is clarified.
There is, of course, a price limit to the possible start of the second wave of the youngest cycle.
This price limit may act as the first stop-loss level, and it is the one that may be mentioned in the forecast.
We may also speak about the second level of stop-loss - the price limit of the possible start of the second wave of the next major cycle.
In other words, the stop-loss level relative to the opening price makes no sense, because everyone opens when they want to,
Sergei, you make a logical point. But I won't calculate where the second one ended, as it won't necessarily coincide with your opinion. I need a clear and precise forecast: "buy EURUSD @ 1.2675, initial SL = 1.2525", made, in your opinion, at a more or less good point (say, when you think the second one has formed). The fact that it is a buy tells me personally immediately that the close should be above 1.2675.
Stop loss can be adjusted, but only to the upside. An SL shift to the worse side of the opening price counts as an unsuccessful forecast.
You can adjust the take wherever you like.
P.S. No, Sergey, let's keep it simple: "buy EURUSD 1.2675". That is all, I am not interested in anything else, not even in SL. Then we will have a perfect symmetric coin. For each transaction I keep two parameters - the result of the transaction and, if it is successful, the drawdown within it in points. All other parameters are of interest to others.
That's it, I'm not interested in anything else, not even SL. That's when I get a perfect symmetrical coin. For each trade I keep two parameters - the result of the trade and, if it is successful, the drawdown within it in pips. All other parameters are of interest for the others.
Why? You already have a "coin" with SL and TP sides...
Well, Sergei and I are kind of at odds with the stops... Sergei, help me out.
The problem here is that SL is trawling. And I do not need to think about the variant indicated in italics: the drawdowns will tell me everything.
I wanted to say something else: firstly, thank you for the clear wording.
Mathemat писал(а) >>
Ну вот такая система оценивания. Не так все просто, конечно, т.к. тут мешается SL (безопасность!) и ломает идеальную картину оценивания.
Прогноз считается удачным, если закрытие произошло в направлении, указанном прорицателем, - даже если отличие составляет только 10 пунктов. Движение против направления открытия сделки может быть любым не превышающим SL.
Сделка неудачна во всех остальных случаях - если сработал стоп-лосс или если закрытие произошло не в указанном направлении.
Secondly, I wanted to add: "... And so it makes no sense to talk about predicting price movement without regard to SL and TP values. Or in a more general case, irrespective of targets."
OK, Sergei, do you agree to these terms of assessment?
I'm not interested:
- specific stopgaps,
- trailing curves (in any direction).
I am interested in (following the results of the deal):
- the result of the deal in pips, and also
- the drawdown in pips (if the trade ended in a profit).
For everything else you are absolutely free. I am only interested in:
- where,
- at which pair,
- at what price.
By the way, the deal does not have to close in the same week.
OK, Sergei, do you agree to these terms of assessment?
I'm not interested:
- specific stopgaps,
- trailing curves (in any direction).
I am interested in (following the results of the deal):
- result of the deal in pips, and also
- the drawdown in pips (if the trade ended in a profit).
For everything else you are absolutely free. I am only interested in:
- where,
- at which pair,
- at what price.
By the way, the deal does not have to close in the same week.
Alexei, I'm pretty busy at the moment. I'll think about it later and 'get in touch'.