The championship: how the leaders opened - page 7
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WHERE IS MY POST!?!?? o_o
Not at all. Just the start is very interesting and very revealing. Most of the top ten have 10 trades or less. So let's check what the concept of statistical significance teaches us.
Man, there are statistics and there is reality. And the claim that statistics reflect reality is easily proven wrong in the market. I would like to fight in a normal market environment, although, by the way, the claim that the normal market is different from the current market is also wrong. In short, it is just a shame that the unprecedented trend that happens once in 10-20 years and exactly 1 day before the start of the Championship has begun. After all, if the lot is rationed, the risk is inversely proportional to the deposit size, moreover, the increase of the deposit is not limited! In general, I want to fight in a usual market, and not a trend, as the trend is only once or twice a year!
все же сапиенс сливают более интелектуальней
Nah, Jura, that's what sapiens wants to think. At the heart of the transaction sequence is still... ahem, pardon the profanity... the same hopeless Bernoulli or, more generally, martingale - both for sapiens with adult intelligence and for abizian with no pretensions and the intelligence of a 5-year-old child. I'm not saying there are no options - but the situation here is almost hopeless. An approach similar to this one, with a successful fluctuation, will create a false confidence that the author has found something - but the more painful the fall will be.
After all, when the lot is rationed, the amount of risk is inversely proportional to the size of the deposit, and the growth of the deposit is not limited!
I am already tired of commenting on this misconception. Firstly, the lot limit also limits the rate of growth of the deposit, not only the risk (the relative amount of risk, mind you). Secondly, the potential drain rate is still equal to the potential growth rate. So there is no magic balance marker, after which neither errors nor drawdowns are scary. There is no difference. If there were no limitations on the amount of positions, the first places would now have numbers of 100k-200k, or even more.
In general, I would like to fight in the usual market and not in the trend, as the trend happens only once or twice a year!
Are you suggesting to stop the championship, annul the results and wait until the "wrong" market ends? :)
Nah, Jura, that's what sapiens wants to think. At the heart of the transaction sequence is still... ahem, pardon the profanity... the same hopeless Bernoulli or, more generally, martingale - both for sapiens with adult intelligence and for abizian with no pretensions and the intelligence of a 5-year-old child. I'm not saying there are no options - but the situation here is almost hopeless. An approach similar to this one, with a successful fluctuation, will create a false confidence that the author has found something - but the more painful the fall.
Alexei, I meant the statistics that Timbo compared
from randomness and the use of homo advisors.
--
it's a championship with 40k at stake and people are just depending on luck
of course every EA has been tested and optimized on the last 8 months history
i.e. a search for regularities is conducted
Sometimes it's enough to take a set of averages and simply open at crossings and wait for luck!
the monkeys have a different principle and their flush is also random and at the same time the number of 600 - 700 monkeys is more productive
than when using all kinds of muwings and other indicators
that's what I mean
A comment on the English translation of my article came to mind. I quote part of it (it's not really about Bill, it's about Larry, but it's not important here):
Now I am going to share an interesting story from my experience with the man who invented the Williams %R. Enjoy. It so happens that I signed up for one of Bill Williams training courses not long after he won the commondies trading championship. Bill by the way is a totally great guy.
He had come up with a book and all the usual instruction stuff including his indicator which is as he put it supposed to measure the institutional involvment (big players) in the market. It all made perfect sense of course (although I never saw any direct correlation between volume and price. )
So, anyway he was one of the first to have a "trading room" where you could trade along with him. As I recall you could do it via conference call or with Yahoo messenger (just came out at the time). On a typical day he would start about by telling us how his indicator showed that we should take this position or that. But, I remember one day in particular when we started out going short on Corn. Not 15 or 20 min later there was an urgent message "Exit the short and go long I recognize this pattern."
As the instruction continued this kind of message would come across the wire time and time again where he would throw out all the indicators and take positions based on pattern recognition. To top things off for that month his over all performance was broken even at best.
I don't know if someone finally pressed him on the issue of how he did so well at the contest but couldn't do any better than anyone else in the real world nor did he actually trade any differently than anyone else but at some point he published an article with the "truth".
The "truth" was that he just got lucky!!! The market just happened to be in a recognisable long term trend on virtually every commodity during the period of the contest. No one lost in the market at the time. He admitted that the only reason he won is that he placed positions at the limit of his margin on every trade. Something he would never do in real life - the strategy was all or nothing.
Now the situation is very similar. I highlighted the main point in the quote. It concerns a real trading competition, in which Larry made his famous 11000% (if I'm not mistaken).
Man, there are statistics and there is reality. And the claim that statistics reflect reality is easily proven wrong in the market. I would like to fight in a normal market environment, although, by the way, the claim that the normal market is different from the current market is also wrong. In short, it is just a shame that the unprecedented trend that happens once in 10-20 years and exactly 1 day before the start of the Championship has begun. After all, if the lot is rationed, the risk is inversely proportional to the deposit size, moreover, the increase of the deposit is not limited! In general, I want to fight in a usual market, and not a trend, because the trend happens only once or twice a year!
Actually, a trend is good!
Without a trend it is bad!
--
let's take February 08 02 2008 we have the beginning of a trend in the euro!
now we have most likely a mid-trend backwards on the euro - at least on W1 there is a 2nd wave in the development
--
is the trend bad? -
a normal market - meaning no crises?
---
before I started mine, after assessing the situation on MN1 W1 D1 and the current crisis, I wrote a trend option!
and i think many have done so
---
you can't go counter-trending in a market like 2008.
---
if there is no trend and the market starts to chatter.
I am already tired of commenting on this misconception. Firstly, the lot limit also limits the growth rate of the depo, not just the risk (the relative amount of risk, mind you). Second, the potential drawdown rate is still equal to the potential growth rate. So there is no magic balance marker, after which neither errors nor drawdowns are scary. There is no difference. If there were no limitations on the volume of positions, you would see numbers of 100k-200k, or even more.
Are you suggesting to stop the championship, annul the results, and wait for the "wrong" market to end? :)
I'd rather you were tired of writing than commenting. I'm off.
I'd rather you were tired of writing than commenting. >> I'm falling off.
>> Mmm. Are you suggesting that I no longer write, but only comment? :)