What 4 factors do you think the price depends on? - page 11
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I'll tell you for free :)
No one can predict the price, unless of course you are a prophet.
Because it is a completely random process and does not depend on anything.
Yusuf, firstly - let me tell you a terrible secret: V (volume) in MT for forex is always zero. Secondly, a0 and the opening price in the regression model affect the closing price solely as initial conditions, i.e. - as the best forecast, provided that there are no moves between Open and Close. In other words, if we didn't have High and Low, the ideal regression would be Close=Open.
Of course, the price value cannot be predicted, but, as we can see, the nature of the movement can be estimated, otherwise one must completely surrender to the market and completely forget about trading, which is psychologically impossible to perceive this fact. The seeming ease of luck, when analysing history, is mesmerising.
Yes, that's exactly what you need to do - determine the nature of the forex market, which does not change.
The nature of the market has to be determined on the basis of historical data, by means of technical analysis.
Yes, that's exactly what you need to do - determine the nature of the forex market, which does not change.
The nature of the market has to be determined on the basis of historical data, by means of technical analysis.
It is possible to determine with technical analysis, but news corrects this character, so fundamental analysis should not be forgotten either.
Dear participants, Now let's make the Bulls and Bears strength forecast and price movement analysis done on the previous page for TF H1 on TF D1 from the beginning of 2016. We will form a price movement forecast for the next week and monitor the execution of the forecast. Let's go. Entered data for the first and second week from 04 01 to 15 01 and this is what we get:
We see that the Bulls have suddenly gained power and raised the price, but they are exhausted, their power is equal to the Bears' and we forecast flat for the next week.
It is the end of the week of 22.01 and we see that our flat prediction was confirmed completely. The Bulls are looking up as the Bears are losing power. Next week we predict an increase in price, in spite of the fact that there was a fall on Friday. We are betting "BAY".
By the end of another week, 29 01 16, our upside prediction is confirmed, but on Friday the Bears made an attack, as we can see from the chart, they have been gaining strength all week. Still, the Bears did not reach the strength of the Bulls and for the next week we leave the forecast for growth and keep the "BAY":
By the end of the next week, 05 02 16, our forecast for growth is fully confirmed:
As the Bulls are much stronger than the Bears, we leave the forecast for growth for next week as well.
By the end of another week, 29 01 16, our upside forecast is confirmed, but the Bears made an attack on Friday as we can see from the chart that they have been gaining strength all week. Still, the Bears did not reach the strength of the Bulls and for next week we leave the forecast for growth and keep the "BAY":
Of course we are keeping it, understandably so. A 157 point drawdown (old) is not worthy of the attention of a true market researcher.
We weather the loss, with investors jumping out of windows shouting "Oh, Yusuf!". After the margin call we have a long-forgotten feeling of "deep satisfaction" from realizing how good it would be if...
I almost forgot to show you what it's all about:
By the way, the previous week's "flat" was in a range of 200 pips, but even this is nothing :(
Of course we save, understandably so. A 157-point drawdown (old ones) is not worthy of the attention of a true market researcher.
We wait out the loss, investors jump out the windows shouting "Oh, Yusuf! After the margin call we have a long-forgotten feeling of "deep satisfaction" from realizing how good it would be if...
I almost forgot to show you what it's all about:
Will not fit as factors because, it is impossible to adequately determine or find for each price value the corresponding factor values. You can try F1 - dollar index, F2 - gold price; F3 - oil, F4 - pound price. Other combinations are possible.
I have enough:
I have enough:
Can you tell me where I can find a teak filter?
Make one myself.