a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 305
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Сегодня утро 18 июля, ожидаю разворота (и открою наверняка сделку) по фунту на уровне 2,0562 и по евро 1,3835. Алекс, что думаете по этому поводу?
Евгений
Zhen, how did your hopes for the pound turn out? :0)
Good afternoon, Dear forum members.
Great branch, I've been browsing it for a long time, but unfortunately it started to stall recently.
I will try to resuscitate and direct to the direction, which was set at the beginning of the branch author Alex Niroba.
In the beginning this branch was dedicated to trading on Elliott Waves. Then, for some reason I do not know why, this topic started developing towards using mathematical methods in trading. I do not doubt that it has a great potential, but unfortunately, firstly, it is still only a stage of development, and secondly, it is very poorly connected with EWA.
I try to use in trading Waves of Ellitt in classic version: Prechter, Balan, Vozny... I have no established trading system based on EWA, it is difficult to formalize patterns analysis and further prediction, i.e. in the beginning stages, so I would be grateful for ideas and directions to go further.
The respected author has already prepared a system, the results of which are AWESOME. Some elements of analysis, essence of strategy, what it is based on, some results - Alex Niroba uploaded.
I corresponded with the author of the branch by e-mail, in the last letter Alex Niroba offered to ask questions, to discuss the strategy based on EWA on the forum.
I'm sure this strategy using EWA deserves the closest attention and discussion. Perhaps it will attract supporters of Elliott Waves. I would like to continue the branch in this direction.
Right away I have a question: Alex Niroba, which method to use to study Neely's book? What should I pay attention to first of all? The matter is that having studied the principles of Elliott Waves by different authors and progressing from author to author, the study becomes easier as the main points are repeated and the nuances remain. (in one of his posts, Alex Niroba wrote that he spent a lot of time studying and mastering Neely's theory)
I studied chapters 5 and 12 concerning construction of channels.
Question about channels: How to use channels at different timeframes - usually from larger to smaller? I`m particularly interested if channels are used jointly for pairs included into the formulas (e.g., EUR/USD=EUR/GBP*GBP/USD, are channels built for EUR/GBP and GBP/USD pairs included into the formula?)
How is the markup used for these pairs? I understand from Alex Niroba that this is done in a complex way, if you have a chance, please explain how you do it in general.
If EUR/USD appears with zigzag, then I will compare it with similar pattern of GBP/USD and USD/CHF pairs at the same timeframes.
I want to build a strategy as soon as possible and start testing.
NP.
alextron in learning probably has to be an individual approach.
To understand the main points I rewrote it twice, breaking it down by chapter
and threw out everything unnecessary.
The book doesn't tell you how to make millions, it just tells you
of what direction to dig. :)
I selected a few important points from the book and refined them into my strategy.
Question about channels: how to use channels at different timeframes - usually from larger to smaller? I`m particularly interested if channels are used jointly for pairs included into the formulas (e.g., EUR/USD=EUR/GBP*GBP/USD, are channels built for EUR/GBP and GBP/USD pairs included into the formula?)
How is the markup used for these pairs? As far as Alex Niroba is concerned, this is done in a complex way,
if possible, please explain how it is done in general.
I mark up 28 currency pairs on all timeframes from one month to a minute (from larger to smaller).
Then I identify the shapes that are forming. I've written before that I use a different colour for each timeframe
Each timeframe has its own colour and each v.p. I also assigned its own colour, it's easier for visual perception.
The fluctuation amplitude of the currency pair depends on which figure is forming at the moment. In order to determine the average amplitude of fluctuations in pips, I have unloaded all data
from a minute to a year in Excel, and counted for each currency with what frequency it wobbles and
with what margin of error the 23 formulas (in terms of pips, clauses, highs and lows) are "followed".
A big influence on the shaping of the shapes on the short
The figures are forming on the annual charts!
From my personal observations: in the formula only 2 bp are "moving" simultaneously, the third one is in its place.
On the example of the formula EUR/USD=EUR/GBP*GBP/USD.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD are "active" and EUR/GBP is "passive".
GBP/JPY is the most dynamic BP and therefore best suited for spiking.
on this Bp you can gain 900% in a week
https://c.mql5.com/mql4/forum/2007/08/Statement.zip
s.w. With Excel you can decompose the whole currency market.
The analysis allows you to understand the laws by which the financial markets work.
Good luck and good trends! :)
Sincerely,
Alex Niroba
Alex, I have a question for you about the Statment. In addition to the solid trades in your report, you have a noticeable number of trades that fall under the notion of pipsing. As an example, I can give you this deal:
14868237 2007.08.21 13:20 buy 25.00 gbpjpy 227.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007.08.21 13:23 227.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 527.45
The trade only lasted for 3 minutes, earning a profit just under the spread. Would you care to comment on the abundance of these deals in your report? What do you think it may be? Could it be that the market has changed so dramatically in 3 minutes that it was able to instantly destroy all the volume calculations made on the calculator in advance? Or does your strategy include a "pipping for fun" item, for example, just by intuition?
https://c.mql5.com/mql4/forum/2007/08/Statement.zip
Alex, I have a question about your statement. In addition to solid trades, your report contains a significant number of trades related to the notion of pipsing. As an example, here is this trade:
14868237 2007.08.21 13:20 buy 25.00 gbpjpy 227.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007.08.21 13:23 227.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 527.45
The trade only lasted for 3 minutes, earning a profit just under the spread. Would you care to comment on the abundance of these deals in your report? What do you think it may be? Could it be that the market has changed so dramatically in 3 minutes that it was able to instantly destroy all the volume calculations made on the calculator in advance? Or does your strategy include a "pipping for fun" item, for example, just by intuition?
solandr, yes, I can comment.
Last week I met with a man about the development of the MTS-ka.
He asked for a report and wished there were more deals and
I didn't have much time, so I had to resort to pipsing.
On the day of the meeting I opened a demo account, selected the most dynamic VP and made the report he requested.
I didn't count how many trades, what was the profit in pips, etc. etc.
The task was a little different - to maximize the deposit for a minimum period of time. :)
By the way, about aggressive pipsing I was interested in Bookkeeper. :)))
I think it is possible :).
Regards,
Alex Niroba
:-)
Here's another idea. If you have all your calculations in Excel, it means one important thing. It means that all your work on implementing the trading strategy is divided into 2 stages:
1. Loading data into Excel and processing it there, obtaining some numerical results.
2. Analysis of these results with your own head and making trading decisions.
You may consider the 1st of these stages to be fully algorithmic. Everything you do at the 1st stage can be implemented in a program. You can, for example, write a separate script that will appropriately prepare the data on all 28 pairs, make the necessary calculations and output the results in a file in the required format. At least, you will get rid of Excel's manual work. Besides, this is one more step towards creation of an Expert Advisor.
The 2nd step, which is separated in this way from the rest, should be analyzed separately. How much is it based on the human intellect? How unambiguous is the decision-making ? How similar is the data set you use and the sequence and composition of your actions? If you find that you do something different every time, then you probably won't be able to formalise your strategy and create an EA.
If this is not the case, then you will also be able to isolate the formalisable part in step 2. It can be driven into another script. Moving this way, you will be able to localize the unformalizable part of your strategy. This is good in itself, because it will allow you to realize what really prevents you from creating the Expert Advisor. And, in addition, continuing this methodical formalization, you will be able to completely eliminate the informal participation of a person in your strategy step by step in the future. That is, fully automate it, which is your goal.
Good luck
:-)
I can give you one more thought. If you have already put all your calculations into Excel, one important thing follows. It means that all your work on the implementation of the trading strategy is divided into, conditionally speaking, 2 stages:
1. Loading data into Excel and processing it there, obtaining some numerical results.
2. analyzing these results with your own head and making trading decisions.
You may consider the 1st of these stages to be fully algorithmic. Everything you do at the 1st stage can be implemented in a program. You can, for example, write a separate script that will appropriately prepare the data on all 28 pairs, make the necessary calculations and output the results in a file in the required format. At least, you will get rid of Excel's manual work. Besides, this is one more step towards creation of an Expert Advisor.
The 2nd step, which is separated in this way from the rest, should be analyzed separately. How much is it based on the human intellect? How unambiguous is the decision-making ? How similar is the data set you use and the sequence and composition of your actions? If you find that you do something different every time, then you probably won't be able to formalise your strategy and create an EA.
If this is not the case, then you will also be able to isolate the formalisable part in step 2. It can be driven into another script. Moving this way, you will be able to localize the unformalizable part of your strategy. This is good in itself, because it will allow you to realize what really prevents you from creating the Expert Advisor. And, in addition, continuing this methodical formalization, you will be able to completely eliminate the informal participation of a person in your strategy step by step in the future. That is, fully automate it, which is your goal.
Good luck
I did all of my analysis with the knowledge I had. After consulting with an expert
I understood that Excel isn't the best solution for analysis, and that there are much better ways than Excel.
Yurixx, thank you for the encouragement.
I wish you to follow the same trends. :)
Sincerely,
Alex Niroba
I realised that Excel isn't the best solution for analysis and that there are much better ways than Excel.
Did I say something about Excel? No, Alex, that's not what I meant.
But if you didn't understand it, well, what the hell. He who has ears to hear.
Yurixx I understand perfectly what your point is.
But if you want my opinion, I think that in order to work effectively
in the financial markets requires a solid team of professionals.
Profitable trading requires a huge "diversity" of experience, and to
To get it one person is going to need decades of experience.
There has to be a responsible approach - either do it professionally,
and devote all your time to it, or don't do it at all.
Everything starts with the birth of a new idea, but you can't fight alone.
Regards,
Alex Niroba
Between the lines I read firmly, that according to this formula you can predict the future time series swing. So I decided to check it once and now I'm sharing it. For a demo-example, I took at random a time series (all the same: eurusd, hour, (H+L)/2):
Two vertical red lines symbolize channels from which the forecast according to the above formula will be executed. The channels themselves have been selected not coincidentally. Further, the red line shows the spread in the charts and the blue line shows the forecast line (the beginning of the channel is fixed).
Countdown "221"
On count 221, it would be interesting to know where the price will theoretically go, whether it will return to or exit the "inside" channel. The channel, in this case, is horizontal. The Hurst index is dangling around zero at this point (if you remember, it is quite dynamic). I have to be honest - if you take it to the left or right, the result will be slightly different. We get a predicted curve like this:
The curvature does not seem to be going up very much and theoretically one can make an assumption that there will not be a significant widening of the channel.
The countdown to "300"
Similar interest as for the "221" readout. You can see that the forecast curve "tends upwards strongly", consequently - wait for the increase of the spread. Combining this conclusion with estimation of the price position in the channel, you can draw a bold conclusion that the swing is likely to "move down".
But this is so, very much by eye. There is, of course, a lot of ambiguity in this approach, but perhaps someone will be interested