How many pips does a profitable EA earn per day and a successful trader - page 10

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To Nowi
In my school, my whole class cheated on maths tests, both algebra and geometry.... Well, if you're talking about higher education and probability theory... then answer me one simple question.

What are the chances of it raining outside your window tomorrow?

 
IvanIvanov:
To Nowi
In my school, my whole class cheated on maths tests, both algebra and geometry.... Well, if you're talking about higher education and probability theory... then answer me one simple question.

What are the chances of it raining outside your window tomorrow?

Considering that I live in Germany and it is September, the probability is about 95% )
 
izzatilla:

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I'm really curious - is there anyone here to answer the question posed - or is it all just to get a rating.

Guys, give answers to the question, and do not engage in discussion of the questions posed, as it was in my previous threads. It's not, not literate, a question like ..... Let's get to the point.

I hope I didn't offend.

Let me start sounding out the numbers:

1. I don't know about the councillor.

2. The aforementioned trader earned about 70-100 pips, working only on EUR/USD (or rather futures /6e). And he worked only 2-4 hours during the London session.

Your numbers gentlemen.

4 digits: 20-25

5 digits: 200-250

breakdown, 1 trade per day on one currency pair.

 
nowi:

a 10 pips stop is 20 times more likely to be reached than a 200 pips stop, and the risk will still be proportional to the lot size!!! in this case, with a 0.1 lot the risk will be 10 times less than with a 1.0 lot

I would argue with that. The probability of reaching a stop of 10 pips is much higher as there is also the spread and the price fluctuations around it. I would reduce the probability of reaching a 10 pip stop to 0.(9)

 
nowi:
Considering that I live in Germany and it's September, the probability is about 95%)
What are you talking about?
Is that personal experience or probability theory telling you?

but the probability theory says there's a 50% probability of the event.
If probabilities, there are only two..,
1 it's raining.
2 no rain.

100% divided by the number of events, we get a 50% probability.
 
IvanIvanov:
What are you talking about?
Is that personal experience or probability theory telling you?

and the theory of probability says that there is a 50% probability of the event
If probabilities, there are only two..,
1 it's raining.
2 no rain.

100% divided by the number of events, we get a 50% probability.
)))))))))) thank you for this post. I have to say you have a very simplistic understanding of probability theory, or rather fundamentally wrong...

there's a probability theory riddle designed for children: what is the probability of meeting a living dinosaur today? The answer is either you will or you won't. It's 50/50, but it's a joke.

Now seriously: what you're saying is a pure substitution of concepts! Rain or no rain is not a probability but a possible scenario. And right: there are only two.

but the probability of those events could be anything from 0................100%

any more questions?
 

An anecdote:

A mathematician is asked: 'What is the probability that you will meet Napoleon when you go out now?

The mathematician looked with reference books, calculators, computers, locked himself in a room for three days and gave the answer: about 0.000001 per cent.

The same question was asked to an experienced trader. The answer was immediate: - 50 to 50, either you will or you won't.
 
nowi:

Any other questions?
What is the probability of the Aussie price moving in both directions by 10 four digits from 00 GMT ?

As an expert, I would expect you to give a detailed justification with figures.
 
IvanIvanov:
what is the probability of the Aussie price moving in both directions by 10 four digits from 00 GMT ?
100% okay, in case of a sudden force majeure if prices stop moving altogether or volatility drops to an all-time low - 99.999999%

it is correct to write in either direction. in both directions at the same time: the probability of that is zero)
 
what a nice rating I have today...like the devil himself)
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