The perfect Take Profit - page 4
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I have both Take Profit and Breakeven and stops flexible and change depending on volatility and divergence-convergence with other instruments. There are two other ways to close, but that's an afterthought.
The general idea is that once we open a position we don't abandon it, but continue to monitor the situation. For example, it doesn't make sense to set a high target if the market is sluggish, but if the market starts to move, we can move the takeprofit. The same thing with the correlation: If your instrument starts to show more zeal compared to some benchmark, you can give it a chance to earn more.
I.e. I think the ideal take profit (as well as the system itself) varies depending on the situation.
But whether one should specify an initial (although changing later) size of takeprofit as a certain indent from a position to be opened or set it at some "external" levels, independent of where you have entered - is still a question for me. Apparently, you can do it both ways, depending on the situation.
On the one hand, the market does not give a shit when you have managed to enter it, but on the other hand, a correctly opened position should take into account some fundamental conditions and then take profit should be correct. I.e., in my opinion, it is difficult to think out separate rules of marking of takeprofit that would differ much from rules of opening of such positions and serious discussion of an ideal takeprofit should inevitably pass into discussion of the ideal system.
As for taking into account the time of existence of a position - I don't think it is an effective way of regulating TP, again, because it is a subjective factor.
Your opinion very accurately defines my current attitude to takeprofit. My view is that there can be different points to exit a position, and they often change with price changes.
As for the time of existence of an open order - there is a definite pattern, for example, I analyzed manual trading on 5 minutes and it turned out that there is almost no profit beyond two hours of holding, while a profitable trade can easily turn into a losing one. Now I come to the conclusion that it is better to open more times by the signal than to keep the drawdown hoping for the best.
A nicely started thread - not a bad solution for take outs, followed by a discussion on the flexibility of take outs depending on the situation - this is exactly what you need. It only remains to digest it and give it to the programmers to work on. It must be said right away that opening an order is much easier than closing it, because there are a million different ways to close it. I will not even mention the human factor. So, automation of this process must be performed in forex without exceptions. Gut!
So I'm looking for something new...
For example they write about volatility, here I have this idea: if the current price movement on a particular bar exceeds the average price movement per bar by 2-3 times, then you should take a take profit, and open on a pullback, if you do not get a signal for reversal.
Another option for determining volatility is 3-4 bars in a row in one direction - here I need an indicator.
I will say something) Everybody is discussing take profit, but stop loss is mentioned by only a couple of people. According to manimanagement rules take should be 3 times bigger than stop loss (even if you trade without stop loss you should have in your head at least a line to close position in case of wrong entry or unexpected situation), plus you should consider how long you hold a position according to your trading strategy, in fact you might take more points if you enter the market successfully, but you don't have to be greedy and the latter plays an important role. From my own experience I can say that taking a stop loss at no-loss is not the best way to go, because you might see big volatility swings and that will lead to a quicker closing of a position and to taking the take profit.
Stop loss is of course important, but it's been written about so much already...
Stop loss is the cost of arguing with the market, when you enter a position you know what you're risking.
There used to be an article about Adaptive Stop Loss on Crowfr. The site has changed and the article seems to have been deleted, but someone copied it to his blog and it shows a study with pictures
http://blog-forex.org/izuchaem-adaptivnoe-upravlenie.html
If in brief, the simplest thing is described - the volatility, if over the last 15 bars, say, the price averaged 100 points, then when you open within the range the probability of taking at least 50 pips is about 50%, with increasing wants, proportionally changes and the probability, for example, at TP = 80 px will be about 20%, it is most true when we entered the channel and going to exit the trade while the price is in the channel, if the trend appeared, then the error in calculating the probability is too big.
When developing a trading system it is not uncommon to ask the question, what is the most ideal moment to exit their trade in profit? Stop Loss is by definition an option to take what is left of the maximum profit, so I am interested in options for calculating the take profit point.
Right now I use to determine the take profit point:
1. moving average +/- indent;
2. RSI indicator levels 70/30;
3.Fibonacci levels of 123.6% / 138.2% / 150% and -23.6% / -138.2% / -150% (but I do not know how to automate this).
What are you using?
ATR 14 on days - minus 15-20%
Average 14-day movement of quotes for the instrument - minus 15-20%
In my opinion, we should determine the TP depending on the situation and the position volume. Let us say, the TP has reached 1.5-2 SL size - half of the position has been closed. The second half of the position is followed on the basis of candlestick patterns and, for example, the average daily price movement on the particular GP for N days. If half of the position has already been closed with a profit - you move the SL to Breakeven and wait for a reversal candlestick signal, at the level of the average daily price movement.
The tactic is interesting, but how to actually use it?
My understanding is that:
- the first close should take place at, say, a 50% probability of reaching the specified price point
- the second closing should occur when the price reaches the 30% probability, and the distance should be greater than for the first double closing
- it is possible to continue pinched.
What about the volume, apparently, the higher the probability of reaching the target, the higher the volume, or vice versa? Is it necessary to trawl from the first close - by hastily moving the stop loss order to Breakeven?
Are there any statistics on this issue?
There was an article about Adaptive Stop Loss on Crowfr before. The site was changed and the article seems to have been deleted, but someone copied it to his blog and the research is shown with pictures
http://blog-forex.org/izuchaem-adaptivnoe-upravlenie.html
If in brief, the simplest thing is described - the volatility, if for the last 15 bars, say, the price averaged 100 points, then when you open inside the range the probability of taking at least 50 pips is about 50%, with increasing the want, proportionally changes and the probability, for example, at TP = 80 px will be about 20%, the fairest is if we entered the channel and going to exit the transaction while the price is in the channel, if the trend appeared, then the error in calculating the probability is too large.
Which indicator shows how many pips price has run in the last n bars? I think it's worth trying to take the absolute value rather than the average.
Thanks for the article - have read it.
ATR 14 on the day - minus 15-20%
Average 14-day movement of quotes for the instrument - minus 15-20%.
So you are counting the limit from the opening and actually trading inside the channel from the ATR?
And you open in the opposite direction at the limit of the channel? Or does the achievement of the above-mentioned points mean the end of the trade within the current day?