The perfect Take Profit - page 9

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yosuf:
(18)
 
When entering the market we often ask ourselves the question if this is the ideal point to enter the market to buy or sell, how can you find out the answer to this question? the answer is very simple, just wait a little and everything will be visible as clear in the palm of your hand.
 
yosuf:

To solve this problem, I went a little different way, namely, to completely abandon the TP and SL (set on the tester TP = 10000pp. and SL = 0) and instructed his indicator to solve the problem of entering and leaving the market by itself during the period from 01. 01. 2009 to present time on euro/dollar with constant lot 0.01 on TF D1 using trend-following strategy. Here is what has come out of this undertaking, you judge:


Bars in history 2269
Modelled ticks 3883
Simulation quality n/a
Chart mismatch errors 0
Initial deposit 10000.00
Spread Current (51)
Net profit 47352.21
Total profit 60198.50
Total loss -12846.29
Profitability 4.69
Expected payoff 37.52
Absolute drawdown 1123.53
Maximum drawdown 13918.14 (33.10%)
Relative drawdown 33.10% (13918.14)
Total trades 1262
Short positions (% win) 613 (51.71%)
Long positions (% win) 649 (57.47%)
Profitable trades (% of all) 690 (54.68%)
Loss trades (% of all) 572 (45.32%)
Largest
profitable trade 289.58
losing trade -102.10
Average
profitable trade 87.24
losing trade -22.46
Maximum number
consecutive wins (profit) 101 (12427.81)
Continuous losses (loss) 49 (-2743.59)
Maximum
Continuous Profit (number of wins) 25566.97 (100)
Continuous loss (number of losses) -2743.59 (49)
Average
continuous winnings 14
Continuous loss 12


The same on the anti-trend strategy, from which it follows that, the market will most certainly turn around and end up higher than the state as of 21 07 2014, i.e., in the 1.34500 area :


Bars in the history 2269
Modelled ticks 3883
Simulation quality n/a
Chart mismatch errors 0
Initial deposit 10000.00
Spread Current (51)
Net profit 27011.35
Total profit 51819.12
Total loss -24807.77
Profitability 2.09
Expected payoff 24.33
Absolute drawdown 2213.22
Maximum drawdown 24885.62 (42.47%)
Relative drawdown 42.47% (24885.62)
Total trades 1110
Short positions (% win) 554 (80.51%)
Long positions (% win) 556 (61.51%)
Profitable trades (% of all) 788 (70.99%)
Loss trades (% of all) 322 (29.01%)
Largest
profitable trade 212.71
losing trade -270.51
Average
profitable deal 65.76
losing trade -77.04
Maximum number
135 (13533.75) continuous wins (profit)
Continuous losses (loss) 100 (-20839.70)
Maximum
Continuous Profit (number of wins) 14049.01 (105)
Continuous loss (number of losses) -20839.70 (100)
Average
continuous winnings 20
Continuous loss 8

it really works, is there a million already ?
 
Pulatforex:
When you enter the market, you often ask yourself if this is the ideal point to enter the market to buy or sell, how do you know the answer to this question? the answer is very simple, just wait a little and you will see everything in plain sight.

The ideal take profit is the profit according to your money management.

Here we consider the question "How to let profits grow and close at the highest points of growth (close at the peaks)".

 
papaklass:
To learn how to close "on the peaks" you must first learn how to open "on the troughs". :)

It doesn't take much intelligence to open on troughs !!!! The simplest TS allows you to do it !!! It's a normal pullback trade !!!

Here the ideas (METHODS) of following the trend and anticipating (identifying) reversals would be interesting !!!

 
papaklass:

:)

Is there anything left in the world that you haven't managed to buy yet!

Have you ever even traded at all?

Apparently with you trying to imply that I'm a dilettante!!!

Well then explain, bother to write a meaningful post since you are such an all-knowing !!!

 

I think we can only talk about an ideal take profit if we find an ideal stop loss. And I think that the best option is the case of TP=SL. We need to find the optimal value of this tandem. For example, for my TS on Euro/Dollar,Ф D1, with fixed lot 0.01, I have preliminary determined that from 2009 up to now the best case is TP=SL=300 pips. (four digits) which gives the following results:


2,272 bars in the history
3889 ticks simulated
Modeling quality n/a
Chart mismatch errors 0
Initial deposit 1000.00
Spread Current (20)
Net profit 1342.40
Total profit 28726.12
Total loss -14783.72
Profitability 1.94
Expected payoff 8.62
Absolute drawdown 0.00
Maximum drawdown 2134.66 (45.02%)
Relative drawdown 45.02% (2134.66)
Total trades 1617
Short positions (% win) 812 (63.42%)
Long positions (% win) 805 (58.01%)
Profitable trades (% of all) 982 (60.73%)
Loss trades (% of all) 635 (39.27%)
Largest
profitable trade 29.99
losing trade -31.39
Average
profitable trade 29.25
losing trade -23.28
Maximum number
continuous wins (profit) 89 (2628.26)
Continuous losses (loss) 46 (-392.48)
Maximum
Continuous Profit (number of wins) 2628.26 (89)
Continuous loss (number of losses) -1235.56 (41)
Average
continuous winnings 19
Continuous loss 12

 

yosuf, I have carefully read your theory (formula 18), and I find it plausible, although not everything in it is unambiguous. The situation is interesting because, judging from the reports, the trading system works - always a nice circumstance - confirmation of the theory by practice. I don't know how long it takes to optimise it and how many input parameters it has... but the numbers speak for themselves - congratulations!

However, I beg you not to PR your TS much (at all) in this thread - this thread was created to collect accumulated knowledge and ideas that may help trader in writing the TS.

The question of closing a position at the right time with the best profit is relevant and needs to be worked out. The idea of closing by indicator is certainly a good idea and I would check your indicator for a signal to close, if the indicator has an appropriate graphical buffer from which it is possible to take the signal - a trigger.

 
The ideal TA? I try to take the minimum target, and if I'm lucky, the maximum. How about this option: divide the deal in half and enter with two orders. One TP should be set to the closest target. The other one, or without TP, should be closed by a trailing stop or to the farthest target. It is convenient to use pivots to mark targets; the price reaches the first pivot almost always, and rarely the third one. When a small target is taken, you should transfer the second order to breakeven and psychologically wait till the second profit is taken or closed at zero.
 
yosuf:

I think we can only talk about an ideal take profit if we find an ideal stop loss. And I think that the best option is the case of TP=SL. We need to find the optimal value of this tandem. For example, for my TS on Euro/Dollar,Ф D1, with fixed lot 0.01, I have preliminary determined that from 2009 up to now the best case is TP=SL=300 pips. (four digits), which gives the following results:


Bars in history 2272
Modelled ticks 3889
Modelling quality n/a
Chart mismatch errors 0
Initial deposit 1000.00
Spread Current (20)
Net Profit 13942.40
Total Profit 28726.12
Total Loss -14783.72
Profitability 1.94
Win expectation 8.62
Absolute drawdown 0.00
Maximum drawdown 2134.66 (45.02%)
Relative drawdown 45.02% (2134.66)
Total trades 1617
Short positions (% win) 812 (63.42%)
Long positions (% win) 805 (58.01%)
Profitable trades (% of all) 982 (60.73%)
Losing trades (% of all) 635 (39.27%)
Largest
profitable trade 29.99
losing trade -31.39
Average
profitable trade 29.25
losing trade -23.28
Maximum
continuous wins (profit) 89 (2628.26)
continuous losses (loss) 46 (-392.48)
Maximum
continuous profits (number of wins) 2628.26 (89)
continuous loss (number of losses) -1235.56 (41)
Average
continuous gain 19
continuous loss 12

And I use a stop that is half as big as a stop loss, but with a trailing stop. For example stop 20 pips, take profit 10, trailing with 7 takes stop to breakeven.
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