Is martin so bad? Or do you have to know how to cook it? - page 61
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Shit, it's easy to calculate.
Set the number of series of trades (each series gives us one bet in winnings). Well, let's say 1000.
Set the probability of not losing once. Let's assume 95%.
So the probability of losing in one series must be 5.129E-5
Such probability is provided by a series length of 14+.
Correspondingly, the capital of 32K bets is needed.
Take a simple Martingale Expert Advisor for doubling and win 1000 times with probability 0.95
If you want to win 1000 times with probability 0.99 - you need 128K stakes. The same capital is required if you do not want to win 10,000 times in a row with a probability of 90%.
The most reasonable, in my opinion, is to set yourself 100K stakes (enough for the whole life) and the probability of winning 0.995 (less is dangerous).
You get a capital of 32M - as I've said many times before.
All these calculations are based on a random entry. When using thechanalysis the results may be different. In my latest version, when testing on the interval of 1.5 years, I got 4 orders in a series at the most. All series were closed with profit according to the test.
Well, thechanalysis tends to shift the probability of winning to the plus side. The spread is negative. I did take the probability of winning in a single trade at 0.5. No one is stopping me from taking another.
Let's say we are beginners and we have a 40% probability of winning (taking into account the spread). We want to win the same 1000 stakes, with a probability of 0.95. We obtain the equity of 1M bets. Go ahead!
...
You get 32M capital - as I've said many times before.
And I've said more than once that Martin (especially the "soft" one) doesn't need 32M.
Instead of this exorbitant capital, you better put a smart guy next to you, who can figure out how to make up the losses in that "fatal no-bounce series"... and yourself... for ice cream...
And I've said more than once that no 32M Martin (especially a "soft" one) needs
Instead of this exorbitant capital, you'd better put a smart guy next to you, who will figure out how to make up for the disadvantages with the same "fatal no-rebate series"... and yourself... for ice cream...
you don't know anything... it's all about the movement!!!
Well, that's understandable. Without movement, no expert will work. But the movement is not up to us. And we have to think how to use this movement. My Expert Advisor is called Ratchet. It works on the plus side, but not on the minus side.) Minus presses the wheel, trying to turn it into minus, but the Ratchet does not).
And I've said more than once that no 32M Martin (especially a "soft" one) needs
Yeah, that's right.
That's what I'm talking about. "Martignail" refers to any modification of a lot. Voiding it with the words "soft", "refined", "improved"...
There is no such thing as a "soft", "hard", "sour" Martingale. Martingale is a betting system with doubling when you lose, and returning to the original bet when you win. Everything. And you need a big deposit to win with it with a noticeable probability. I indicated which one. You can reduce the number of series or increase the probability of losing - the deposit, respectively, will be reduced.Instead of this exorbitant capital, you'd better put a smart guy next to you, who will figure out how to make up for the disadvantages with the same "fatal no-rebate series"... and yourself... for ice cream...
He'll blow it all !
No way. I'd rather have capital and strictly follow the TS, especially as the question is not "where to find a smart guy" but "how to make a martingale".
Well, that's understandable. Without movement, no expert will work. But the movement is not up to us. And we have to think how to use this movement. My Expert Advisor is called Ratchet, it works on the plus side, but not on the minus side, one way the balance wheel works only upwards). Minus presses on the wheel, trying to turn it into minus, but the Ratchet does not).
The ratchet is a good thing... do not put it together with the night scalper so that the ratchet does not prevent it from working at night...
He's gonna blow it!
No way. I'd rather have capital and strictly follow the TS, especially since the question is not "where to find a smart guy", but "how to make a martingale".
The task of adapting it to the trend will be easier...