Artificial Intelligence 2020 - is there progress? - page 43
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No of course, probability is a statistical characteristic of an event, and is only true in the number of events greater than N. And it makes no sense for single events.
Very often to understand the object behavior, you have to forget about it and take into account only the results of its behavior.
Chaos on the market is created probably by the nature of the exchanges market. Since its creation, the purpose of exchanges - to facilitate the sale of real commodities - was very quickly changed to the power of making money on exchanges. And the forces of earning almost immediately became stronger than the intended purpose. Commodity prices are not only determined by real supply and demand, but to a large extent by non-real exchange demand, and secondary instruments as well) The futures were invented as insurance against losses for producers, but it has turned out as usual).
Valeriy Yastremskiy:
1. very often in order to understand the behaviour of an object one must forget it and consider only the results of its behaviour.
2. Chaos in the market is probably created by the nature of the exchanges market. Since its inception, the intended purpose of exchanges - to facilitate sales of real goods - was very quickly changed to making money on exchanges. And the forces of earning almost immediately became stronger than the intended purpose. The commodity prices are determined not only by the real supply and demand, but to a large extent by the non-real exchange demand, and secondary instruments as well) The futures were invented as insurance against losses for producers, but it has turned out as usual).
1) This thesis is contradictory. If we look for patterns of a group or category of objects, we exclude ourselves from concrete properties and behaviour models of the object we start with, in order to return to it later and apply more extensive experience and knowledge. However, we need to act in the field of a group or category of objects, without moving away from the value of wheat into quantum physics. That is, one cannot "slide" from the object plane to infinity, but that is exactly what traders do instead of analyzing yield of grains and economic indicators- they jump into the abyss of "time series" and mathematical calculations of probability of abstract events of impersonal dynamics of some value, from nothing significant in practice parameter.
Analyse exactly what you are investigating and you will realise the void. The trade object is lost, erased from consciousness, and what's left of it is a "pulsating" property which itself has become a universal object, which spawns researches around it and lives in some virtual universe. A pure property without an object is like a chicken without a head, still generating some processes and abstract events, and the worst thing is that it will never return to its beginning.
1. this thesis is contradictory. If we look for regularities of a group or category of objects, we detach ourselves from specific properties and behavioural patterns of the object we start with, in order to return to it later and apply a richer experience and knowledge. However, we need to act in the field of a group or category of objects, without moving away from the value of wheat into quantum physics. That is, one cannot "slide" from the object plane to infinity, but that is exactly what traders do instead of analyzing yield of grains and economic indicators- they jump into the abyss of "time series" and mathematical calculations of probability of abstract events of impersonal dynamics of some value, from nothing meaningful in practice parameter.
Analyse exactly what you are investigating and you will realise the void. The trade object is lost, erased from consciousness, and what's left of it is a "pulsating" property which itself has become a universal object, which spawns researches around it and lives in some virtual universe. A pure property without an object is like a chicken without a head, it still generates some processes and abstract events and the worst thing is that it will never return to its beginning.
In order to describe Brownian motion it was necessary to forget about molecules. Only then was it possible to make a mathematical model similar to, or with the behaviour of Brownian motion.
If you are right, then research into the dynamics of an abstract price for "something" will result in a pattern or set of patterns common to all markets that all traders will follow and that will end the chaos. But, one can bring order back to the market simply by remembering what we trade and why).
Also, as a matter of fact, there are only 1 per cent real goods on the exchange. The rest are secondary tools to make money.
This means that only 1% of trade is a meaningful business.